Given his lucrative ADP in startup drafts, it may come as a surprise to find Jarvis Landry labeled as a premier value in dynasty. At the same time, a case can be made in favor of the LSU product being overlooked. Below, I will explain how Landry is currently one of the most valuable wide receivers in PPR formats due to his consistency, statistical ceiling and situation with the Miami Dolphins.
Over the course of his first three NFL seasons, Landry has manufactured a minimum of 84 receptions for 758 yards receiving and four touchdowns. Across his past two campaigns, the 5’ 11” / 206-pound wide receiver has recorded 111 receptions for 1,159 yards receiving (2015), and 94 receptions for 1,136 yards receiving (2016). Evidently, he has proven to be a borderline elite asset in leagues that reward a point per reception. In fact, Landry has finished as the WR30, WR9 and WR13 in each of his last three seasons.
Another added benefit to owning Landry shares is his level of consistency on a weekly basis. In 2016 alone, he registered double-digit points in PPR in all but four regular season contests. Landry only failed to reach that mark on one occasion in 2015, which is a remarkable testimony to his fantasy reliability. Provided his rather large sample size of production, a second-round valuation in dynasty startup drafts is a fair assessment of Landry’s present value. A selection beyond that point should be considered a discount, as few wide receivers possess a safer floor on an annual basis in the fantasy realm.
Based on the fact that Landry has posted back-end WR1 numbers in consecutive seasons while only scoring four touchdowns in each campaign could very well mean that he has yet to hit his statistical ceiling. After all, finding the end zone at a more frequent rate could elevate a player’s fantasy value an additional tier or two. That is precisely the case for Landry, as a lack of touchdown output has limited his fantasy stock to this point.
At this stage in his career, Landry appears poised to be a virtual lock for 90 receptions and 1,000 yards receiving. Barring touchdown output, that places him on the WR2 radar in PPR formats. Assuming that he receives an uptick in touchdown production, it is entirely possible that Landry’s ceiling is a top-five wide receiver overall. Of course, that is easier said than done as he will have to fend for targets in 2017 with DeVante Parker, Kenny Stills and Julius Thomas.
Under the direction of Adam Gase in 2016, Landry earned 131 targets and was a clear focal point of the Miami Dolphins’ aerial attack. Although he received more volume as a sophomore in 2015 with 165 targets, it’s clear that Landry remains atop the team’s depth chart. Consider that in 2016, DeVante Parker (90) and Kenny Stills (81) combined for 171 targets. In other words, Landry nearly reached the collective volume totals of Miami’s other top receiving weapons in Parker and Stills on his own.
Heading into 2017, it is fair to expect Landry to once again lead Miami in targets and receiving production. He is entering a contract year, but all reports indicate that the franchise intends to open extension negotiations in the near future. This offseason, Miami re-signed Kenny Stills to a four-year, $32 million contract ($16.95 million guaranteed). Based on Landry being a superior talent to that of Stills, it is reasonable to expect a similar contract for the 24-year-old wide receiver if he becomes a free agent in 2018.