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We are continuing our “Top Player at Each Position” series. So far, we’ve tried to predict the WR1 and RB1. Now, we move on to the quarterback position, which may end up being one of the hardest positions to predict.
There is a pretty common trend when looking at the QB1 over the last decade. Since 2018, no quarterback other than Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, or Lamar Jackson has finished as the overall QB1 in fantasy football.
We are going to do our best to narrow down the search for the QB1 in 2026 by using historical trends from previous QB1 seasons. We’ll start with the top 20 quarterbacks based on FantasyPros’ 2026 rankings and gradually eliminate players until we are left with one champion.
Some of these factors may not move the needle for everyone, but they provide a foundation that can help us identify the quarterback with the best chance to finish as the QB1 in 2026.
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History of QB1 in Fantasy
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 |
| Peyton Manning | Aaron Rodgers | Cam Newton | Aaron Rodgers | Russell Wilson | Patrick Mahomes |
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
| Lamar Jackson | Josh Allen | Josh Allen | Patrick Mahomes | Josh Allen | Lamar Jackson | Josh Allen |
Original Team Factor
Eliminated: Matthew Stafford, Jared Goff, Kyler Murray, Baker Mayfield, Malik Willis, Sam Darnold, Daniel Jones
Our first elimination factor is whether the quarterback is still with the team that originally drafted him. This has been one of the strongest trends among QB1 finishes, as 12 of the last 13 overall QB1s were playing for their original franchise. The only exception was Peyton Manning in 2013 after he joined the Denver Broncos.
Because of that trend, most quarterbacks who changed teams can be eliminated from contention. However, there are two quarterbacks who stand out as realistic candidates to break that trend in 2026: Matthew Stafford and Kyler Murray.
Stafford has a chance if he can repeat his impressive 2025 performance while continuing to take advantage of the talented weapons around him. The concern is that he offers very little rushing production, which has become increasingly important for fantasy quarterbacks. There is also the possibility of touchdown regression. Stafford has thrown for more than 30 touchdowns only twice over the last decade, making it difficult to project another elite fantasy season.
Murray is a much more intriguing dark-horse candidate. If he can stay healthy for all 17 games and secure the starting job, his fantasy upside is enormous. We know head coach Kevin O’Connell has built a reputation as a quarterback-friendly coach and has helped several passers produce strong fantasy seasons throughout his career. Murray has always been a fantasy difference-maker when healthy thanks to his rushing ability, and he now has arguably the best supporting cast of his career.
The biggest concern with Murray is durability. Injuries have consistently limited him throughout his career, and if the team struggles during the season, there could be pressure to evaluate their highly drafted young quarterback. Still, if Murray stays on the field for a full season, he has the talent and fantasy profile to challenge for the overall QB1 crown.
Rushing Attempts Factor
Eliminated: Joe Burrow, Brock Purdy, Jordan Love, C.J. Stroud, Dak Prescott, Cam Ward
Our next factor is rushing attempts, which requires a little more projection than some of the other statistics we have used. As rushing production has become increasingly important in fantasy football, the quarterbacks finishing as the overall QB1 have consistently contributed with their legs.
Of the 13 quarterbacks in our sample, 11 recorded at least 60 rushing attempts during their QB1 season. That benchmark has also been reached by the overall QB1 in each of the last 11 consecutive seasons. The only exceptions were Peyton Manning in 2013 and Aaron Rodgers in 2014.
We now move on to the quarterbacks eliminated by this factor. These players have either never surpassed 60 rushing attempts or have only done it once in their careers, making it unlikely that they will reach that mark in 2026.
Joe Burrow is the biggest name eliminated here. He is certainly capable of finishing as the QB1 if he produces a career-best passing season, especially with the weapons surrounding him in Cincinnati. However, Burrow has also dealt with several significant injuries, and the Bengals are unlikely to design many rushing opportunities for him. His elite passing upside keeps him in the conversation, but his limited rushing production and durability concerns ultimately knock him out of this exercise.
Most of the other quarterbacks on this list possess QB1 upside, but they may lack the ceiling needed to finish as the overall QB1 in 2026. Brock Purdy and Dak Prescott are both productive quarterbacks, but their elite fantasy upside may be limited at this stage of their careers without a significant rushing floor.
Cam Ward remains more difficult to evaluate after only one NFL season. I expect him to improve his overall fantasy production in 2026, but a jump all the way to the overall QB1 appears unlikely this early in his career.
Winning Team Factor
Eliminated: Jayden Daniels, Trevor Lawrence, Jaxson Dart, Tyler Shough
Our next factor is the winning team factor, which is based on each team’s Vegas win projection. Every quarterback eliminated by this factor is currently projected to play for a team that will finish below .500 in 2026.
This is one of the strongest trends in our entire study. All 13 quarterbacks who finished as the overall QB1 posted a winning record during their QB1 season, while 12 of those 13 quarterbacks won at least 10 games.
This factor eliminates several notable fantasy quarterbacks. Tyler Shough is the easiest cut from the group, as the Saints are likely still a year or two away from competing for a winning season. While Shough could provide fantasy value, asking him to become the overall QB1 on a rebuilding team is a difficult projection.
Jayden Daniels, Trevor Lawrence, and Jaxson Dart are more interesting eliminations because there is a realistic chance Vegas could be underestimating their teams heading into 2026.
Daniels remains one of the most intriguing fantasy assets because of his rushing ability. He finished as the QB5 in 2024 and possesses the type of dual-threat upside that fantasy managers covet. The concern for 2026 is whether Washington has enough playmakers in the passing game to help him take another step forward as a passer. Daniels is certainly a quarterback to monitor, especially since his injury-plagued 2025 season has managers slightly concerned.
Lawrence is another fascinating candidate after coming off a career-best season and finishing as the QB4 in 2025. The biggest question is whether the Jaguars are ready to take the next step now that expectations and competition will be much higher. Lawrence has always possessed elite passing upside, and it is fair to wonder if head coach Liam Coen finally unlocked his full potential. He may deserve to be ranked higher than this exercise suggests, but based on the historical trend requiring a winning team, Lawrence is eliminated from contention.
Top Contenders
Compared to the wide receivers and running backs, it was much harder to identify common factors among past QB1 overall finishes because the quarterback position is so unique. Unlike other positions, elite quarterback production can come in a variety of ways, whether through passing volume, rushing upside, efficiency, or overall team success.
The eight quarterbacks remaining on our list all have a legitimate path to finishing as the QB1 in fantasy football this season. Any one of them could put together the type of elite campaign needed to claim the top spot. However, for the sake of this experiment, we have to keep narrowing the field until only one quarterback remains standing as our projected QB1 for 2026.
Yard Per Attempt Factor
Eliminated: Justin Herbert, Caleb Williams, Bo Nix
We now move on to the Yards Per Attempt factor. Looking back at the previous 13 QB1 seasons, nine of those quarterbacks finished inside the top 10 in yards per attempt during their QB1 campaign. While it is not a perfect trend, it highlights the importance of efficiency and explosive plays when trying to finish as the overall QB1.
Caleb Williams and Bo Nix are the most interesting quarterbacks eliminated by this factor. Both are still early in their careers, and there is plenty of time for them to develop into more efficient downfield passers. However, through their first two NFL seasons, neither quarterback has finished better than 22nd in yards per attempt.
What makes both players intriguing is the offensive environment surrounding them. Williams has one of the league’s brightest offensive minds calling plays, and there is a realistic chance that a healthy Rome Odunze and a more developed Luther Burden could help unlock another level of Chicago’s passing attack. If Williams begins pushing the ball downfield more effectively, he could quickly become the legitimate QB1 candidate.
The same can be said for Nix. Denver added Jaylen Waddle, whose speed and big-play ability could create more explosive opportunities in the passing game. If Nix takes a step forward as a downfield passer, there is certainly a path to him outperforming this trend. Both quarterbacks remain contenders, but their lack of proven efficiency keeps them on the wrong side of this exercise.
Justin Herbert is another notable elimination. There is optimism that offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel can unlock a more aggressive version of Herbert after helping Miami become one of the league’s most explosive passing offenses. The Chargers have added speed and playmaking ability, giving Herbert the supporting cast needed to create more chunk plays. However, despite a lengthy NFL career, Herbert has never finished inside the top 10 in yards per attempt. Unless there is a significant change in offensive philosophy and efficiency, he falls short of this historical benchmark and is eliminated from contention.
Head Coach Factor
Eliminated: Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes
Our next factor focuses on the head coach, specifically whether the quarterback’s head coach comes from an offensive or defensive background. At first glance, many fantasy managers would assume that having an offensive-minded head coach is a major advantage when trying to produce the overall QB1. Surprisingly, history suggests the opposite.
Over the last 13 seasons, nine of the quarterbacks who finished as the overall QB1 played for a head coach whose background was on defense or special teams. The exceptions were Aaron Rodgers under Mike McCarthy during his two QB1 seasons in Green Bay and Patrick Mahomes under Andy Reid in 2018 and 2022. The remaining QB1 seasons came under defensive-minded head coaches or special teams coaches such as John Harbaugh.
The two quarterbacks eliminated by this factor are Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes. Both currently play for offensive-minded head coaches. This is certainly not a major factor compared to some of the others in this study, but we need a way to continue narrowing the field, and history points us in this direction.
Hurts is eliminated here despite his rushing upside and touchdown potential, many would assume he has already finished as the overall QB1 at some point in his career. The loss of A.J. Brown could make that climb even more difficult in 2026, as Hurts may be forced to rely on younger, less proven pass catchers. To challenge for the QB1 crown, he will likely need to maintain his passing touchdown production while returning to double-digit rushing touchdowns. While that outcome is certainly possible, it appears less likely than in previous seasons. Even so, Hurts should remain firmly in the top-10 fantasy quarterback conversation.
The next elimination is even more difficult because Mahomes has already proven he can finish as the overall QB1 multiple times with an offensive minded coach. Mahomes does have the upside for it but also some concerns.
Mahomes enters 2026 with more uncertainty after suffering a torn ACL late in the 2025 season. His recovery timeline and overall mobility will be worth monitoring throughout the year. That said, the return of offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy is extremely intriguing. The last time Mahomes consistently posted elite fantasy numbers and surpassed 30 passing touchdowns was when Bieniemy was helping run the offense. There is a realistic path to Mahomes returning to his former MVP-level production, but the injury concerns and historical trend push him out of contention in this exercise.
The Top QB for 2026
Lamar Jackson vs Drake Maye vs Josh Allen
It all comes down to these final three quarterbacks in our quest to predict the QB1 for 2026 fantasy football.
Lamar Jackson brings the elite rushing upside that has made him one of fantasy football’s most dominant quarterbacks. He has also developed into a much more complete passer, reaching new heights through the air several times during his career. The concern with Jackson has never been talent—it’s availability. Injuries have forced him to miss games in multiple seasons, and that risk remains part of the equation when projecting him over a full 17-game schedule.
Drake Maye is the young gunslinger of the group. He enters 2026 with a significantly improved supporting cast after the addition of A.J. Brown, giving him a true No. 1 receiver, and Romeo Doubs as an underneath safety valve. Maye showed flashes of elite fantasy upside in 2025, but he also benefited from a favorable schedule. The challenge in 2026 will be proving he can maintain that production against tougher competition while taking the next step in his development.
Josh Allen has simply been the model of fantasy consistency. Year after year, he continues to finish among the elite quarterbacks thanks to his combination of passing production and rushing touchdowns. The addition of D.J. Moore gives Allen another dynamic weapon, further strengthening Buffalo’s offense. The only question is whether age will begin to catch up to him as he enters his age-30 season. While most quarterbacks can remain productive well into their 30s, fantasy managers have to wonder if any decline in rushing production could impact his overall ceiling.
Three elite options. Three different paths to the QB1 finish. Now it’s time to determine which quarterback gives us the best chance to finish atop the fantasy football mountain in 2026.
We are going to eliminate the final two from the race for the top spot. Their reasons were briefly mentioned above, as there are some concerns with both players, but there is also another factor that pushes them out of the running.
Both quarterbacks will be playing under a rookie head coach in 2026. Over the last 13 seasons, the overall QB1 in fantasy football has never played for a first-year head coach. While rookie head coaches have had success in terms of team wins and overall performance, none have produced the QB1 in fantasy during that span.
It may seem like a minor factor, but this entire exercise is built around historical trends. With that in mind, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen are eliminated, leaving us with one final quarterback standing.
The QB1 in 2026 “should” end up being Drake Maye. For the following reasons:
- Still with his original team that drafted him.
- Has already shown the ability to provide fantasy value with his legs, recording over 60 rushing attempts in a season.
- Plays on a team projected to be competitive and in the playoff hunt.
- Has previously produced a top-10 finish in yards per attempt (YPA), showing the efficiency needed to reach an elite fantasy ceiling.
- Is led by a veteran, defensive-minded head coach, a trend that has surprisingly been common among many recent QB1 overall finishes.
When looking at the historical trends and elimination factors throughout this exercise, Drake Maye checks every box. Maye possesses the combination of passing upside, rushing ability, team situation, and historical trends that make him my pick to finish as the QB1 overall in 2026 fantasy football.
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