Which New Orleans Saints player besides Alvin Kamara do you want to own for Dynasty??
My friends, after the Michael Thomas news, I have two words for you: Fish Boy! By that I mean, get Adam Trautman on your team before it is too late, his ADP rises, or his price rises.
Once the season starts, his price is going to rise exponentially. Especially if you are playing TE-Premium scoring. Trautman is set to become the number one TE on the Saints after they let Jared Cook walk in free agency. This will give Trautman the opportunity to be on the field even more. More playing time usually means more chances to catch the ball and rack up points for fantasy football.
Trautman also has extraordinarily little competition. His only real competition is Nick Vannett. Yes, the blocking TE behind Noah Fant of the Broncos who let him go to free agency after this past year. His career-high for yards is 269 yards. That’s over an entire season. That is not something that any fantasy fan should worry about. In fact, the Saints getting Trautman a blocking TE behind him actually helps Trautman! It helps by taking so much of the blocking pressure off him. Vannett can worry about being the blocker, while Trautman runs his routes and scores TDs.
Adam is alone in his position and now is the second receiving option for the Saints. At least for the first 4-6 weeks of the season, following the Michael Thomas injury news. This gives him an easy opportunity to establish himself as a viable pass-catcher and one of the best TEs in the league. Or at the least, a top-12 TE. After these first six weeks, his price to buy is going to rise significantly. To win the game, you need to do what people buying Gamestop stocks did and buy low. Then if you really want, sell for triple what you paid, a la Gamestop stocks. If you grew up gaming in the mid-2000’s or so, you know what I mean.
Does Who’s Throwing to Trautman matter?
Yes, Drew Brees did retire. While he would’ve been perfect for Trautman, the Saints still have good QBs on the roster that can get him the ball. Taysom Hill and Jameis Winston will be battling it out to see who is the QB1 on the Saints. HIll is a relatively new QB to the position since he has not played that position much over the years. According to my good friend and fellow DynastyNerds writer, Alex Levin, if HIll starts, then expect the TE targets to go down, but if Winston starts, the targets will stay roughly the same as last year. Jared Cook playing TE1 last year got 60 targets while Trautman got 16. Add those together and you get 76 or so targets for just Trautman. He caught 93% of his targets last year.
While we can’t expect that type of efficiency going forward, even him decreasing to 80% catch rate is good for 60 or so receptions, which is very solid for your fantasy team. If you’re in a TE-Premium scoring league, this is good for you and your team. Another huge benefit if Jameis ends up being the starter, he is widely good when he targets TEs.
According to PFF, Since entering the NFL, Jameis Winston has the fifth-best passer rating when targeting tight ends, but ranks third-worst when targeting all other positions.Much gratitude from my friends at PFF.
Now yes, Hill did target WRs more than Brees did last year. However, that was with Thomas playing. When Brees played, Thomas mainly was out. So, of course, Brees targeted his RB’s and TEs more. He was missing one of the best WRs. Hill was not. He would have been the dumbest man in the world to not target his best weapon a ton. So, with that said, and with Thomas out, and the Saints not having any true replacements for him; Hill will be forced to target other parts of the Offense. Trautman being the second option on the offense will raise his target share quite a bit. By the time Thomas gets back, Trautman will have developed into a reliable and trustworthy option for Hill.
So, for folks who are freaking out that HIll does not target TE’s, look at the stats that Alex shared in his article linked up above. Also, don’t forget that the Saints lost some of their defense due to cap issues. This might lead to more high-scoring games. Which would benefit Trautman with more targets along with other players. No matter who the QB is, Trautman is going to get fed, at least by TE standards. Trautman is young, on a rookie contract, and is going to get a ton of playing time. He could be your TE1 on your dynasty roster for years to come.
Where should you value or draft Adam Trautman?
Where should you draft Trautman in SF PPR TE-Premium leagues? How about just 1QB PPR leagues or SF PPR leagues? Well, I’ll fill you in on where to take the talented TE. In the table below are the ADP for Trautman in Dynasty 1QB PPR, Dynasty SF PPR, his position ranking according to the ADP (average draft position), and his redraft ranking.
|Dynasty 1QB PPR||Dynasty SF PPR||Position Rankings-TE|
|146.1=15th rd (STEAL)||172.8=18th rd (STEAL)||13-16 depending on Draft|
Now if your league has TE-Premium, which is when the TE gets a bonus point or fraction of a point for a reception, Trautman typically goes about 2-4 rounds earlier than these ADP’s. Even then, he is a huge steal as you are taking him as the TE13-16. That’s a massive steal considering his enormous upside. Consider this fact – how many of those TEs around that range are set to become one of the main focal parts of their offense? Maybe Kmet who is being drafted around the TE11-13 range. But that’s it. No one would say that Logan Thomas, Tyler Higbee, Evan Engram, Robert Tonyan, or Austin Hooper are going to be focal points.
Yet these guys are going in the same range or higher than Trautman. Meanwhile, Trautman is going to outproduce each one of these guys and is younger. He has no injury history. He plays tough and can catch the ball well according to our rookie profile by resident Nerd Jon Diment. My personal projections for Adam Trautman this season are:
I predict for him to finish around TE9-12 but for sure as a TE1. Getting a TE1 that late in drafts is a steal. Hence why he could be one of a couple of pieces that help you win a championship this year! Go get Fish Boy on your roster NOW.
As always, I’m more than happy to talk fantasy football, life, Star Wars, and anything else on Twitter @DarthDbacks and one final thought…
May the Force Be with You
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