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Analytics Team 2019 Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft: Rounds 4-5

When we last checked in the Dynasty Nerds “Analytics Guys” had just wrapped up the second and third rounds of their rookie mock draft. In this article, we wrap up rounds four and five. This is the lottery ticket portion of your rookie draft. The picks made here will be long shots to pay off, but when you hit on one of these guys it can provide a boost to your team. We are drafting using a one quarterback league with PPR scoring for our settings. Let’s get started!

4.01 Josh Oliver (TE – Jacksonville Jaguars)

Pick Made By:  Tyler Grzegorek (@tyler_grez)

Can you name the current starting tight end for the Jacksonville Jaguars? That’s right, it’s Josh Oliver. It’s incredibly hard to pass on such an athletic prospect with such an opportunity for snaps right away. Oliver’s testing metrics ended up in the 85th percentile for his 40-yd-dash (4.63s) and the 86th percentile in overall speed score (109.2). In fantasy football, opportunity is key and I’m willing to gamble on the guy whose had it dropped right into his lap. 

4.02 Kahale Warring (TE – Houston Texans)

Pick Made By:  Will Patty (@Willane935)

You have to love a tight end prospect with a basketball background.  DeSean Watson loved throwing to Jordan Leggett in his time at Clemson, and at times, has shown a willingness to target the position at the NFL level.  There just hasn’t been a consistent tight end option in Houston the past few years. Kahale Warring showed well at the combine in his 20-yard shuttle but struggled a little bit with the three-cone drill.  Warring showed decent agility on tape though and I saw some nice ability to get open. His blocking is subpar, typical for a college tight end, which normally wouldn’t be a problem for me but I do have some worries about his blocking keeping him from seeing the field while they favor someone else to help that atrocious Texans line.

4.03 Gary Jennings, Jr. (WR – Seattle Seahawks)

Pick Made By:  Keith Ensminger  (@TheSmingDynasty)

A wide receiver with decent draft capital, a SPARQ-x score in the 95th percentile, and he was selected to a team with an MVP caliber quarterback and few defined receiving options? What’s not to like? Well, and I say this knowingly as a Jets’ fan, Brian Schottenheimer and the Seahawks’ offensive scheme being so depressingly run-heavy. But, other than that? In the fourth round of your rookie drafts, you could do much worse than picking up a wide receiver who caught 70.9 percent of his targets at a rate of 9.5 yards per target in college.

4.04 Rodney Anderson (RB – Cincinnati Bengals)

Pick Made By: Nathan Bourque (@DynstyDadStache)

What can I say, I’m a man who enjoys efficiency. At an insane rate of 8.5 YPC (98th percentile), Rodney Anderson has shown he’s got the juice to make big plays happen. His #1 issue? Staying on the field. Anderson has suffered from THREE season-ending injuries. However, only one (his ACL injury in 2018) was what I would consider a typical wear-and-tear running back injury that makes me question his durability. The other two (a fractured fibula in 2015 and fractured vertebrae in 2016) were more freak-accident type injuries that reportedly haven’t given any indication to affect his long-term health. Is he going to supplant the fabulous Joe Mixon? No. Will he even beat out Gio Bernard for a fair share of backup carries? Maybe. But he’s a player I want to keep an eye on, since Gio will surely move on eventually and if Anderson can stay healthy him and his high-efficiency running might just get big things done even behind Joe Mixon. 

4.05 Bruce Anderson (RB – Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

Pick Made By: David Zach (@DavidZach16)

Anderson hails from my alma mater so this is slightly a homer pick. I think it is worth taking a shot on a running back with upside. He is a UDFA RB (see pick 3.11 for a great stat on UDFA running backs) and has possibly the best shot among all players to see meaningful playing time that I could get in round four. The inefficient Peyton Barber and disappointing Ronald Jones are all that remain ahead of him in Tampa Bay. While Anderson may not have the high-end credentials others do, his situation might be ideal. It will be very difficult, but if he can make himself stand out, he could see playing time as soon as this year.

4.06 Daniel Jones (QB – New York Giants)

Pick Made By: Justin Peek (@JPeekFF)

This is a one QB mock, but it’s still surprising to find the 6th overall pick in the 2019 draft in the mid-fourth round. Granted, the consensus is that the Giants didn’t need to draft him that early, but he still has an athletic profile and will have plenty of opportunity in a starting role once New York moves on from Eli Manning. At 6’5” and 221 lbs, he has above-average speed, hand size, agility, and a great Wonderlic. Jones did not impress in college, but not many can be particularly impressive at Duke. His best work is done when he can release the ball quickly, and dump-offs to Saquon Barkley may fit his game quite well. If he’s able to come in this year and get some production out of all of the weapons surrounding him, he should see a pretty big value boost even in one QB leagues.

4.07 Darius Slayton (WR – New York Giants)

Pick Made By:  Will Patty (@Willane935)

At this point in the fourth round, I’m just buying on Darius Slayton’s athleticism and opportunity.  He flashed that athleticism at times at Auburn but wasn’t utilized very heavily in the passing game. He was able to manage a solid average of 15.9 yards per catch, but like most of Auburn’s WR corps, he didn’t score many touchdowns.  The Giants need someone to step up and help out this receiving corps, so there is an opportunity there. I’m buying at this price on Slayton’s speed, his explosiveness, and those ten-inch mitts.

4.08 KeeSean Johnson (WR – Arizona Cardinals)

Pick Made By:  Tyler Grzegorek (@tyler_grez)

The Cardinals are expected to play as many five WRs at a time this coming season. Johnson has been receiving early praise from Cardinals’ camp and is rumored to be ahead of fellow rookie Hakeem Butler. Another upside and stash pick, with the hopes that Johnson can carve out a role with the impending retirement of Larry Fitzgerald alongside Christian Kirk and Andy Isabella. 

4.09 Qadree Ollison (RB – Atlanta Falcons) 

Pick Made By: Nathan Bourque (@DynstyDadStache)

To be honest, Qadree Ollison doesn’t particularly impress me. Then again, neither did Ito Smith last year. Should Devonta Freeman get injured yet again, Quadree could find himself getting the opportunity to prove himself. Since Ito wasn’t able to impress the Falcons coaches last year, the door could be open for Ollison. And at 6’1” and 228 lbs, the big QO might just fall into the end zone a handful of times this season. Any running back in this range is in major danger of being cut with the incoming 2020 running backs, but I’ll take the possibility of Ollison providing some thunder to Freeman’s lightning for now. 

4.10 Benny Snell, Jr (RB – Pittsburgh Steelers)

Pick Made By:  Keith Ensminger  (@TheSmingDynasty)

Benny Snell, Jr. and his middling athletic profile may be the anti-analytics pick here. He is the very definition of “he is what he is” – for an NFL back, he’s not fast and he’s not agile. He likely won’t catch passes. At pick 4.10, I’m getting a player with a ceiling of Jordan Howard but even then only as a backup to one of the NFL’s top backs in 2018. For him to be relevant, he will almost certainly need an injury to James Conner. Perhaps better left to be drafted in best-ball leagues, if Conner ever were to go down, he would get the lion’s share of carries in one of the top NFL offenses. 

4.11 Drew Lock (QB – Denver Broncos)

Pick Made By: David Zach (@DavidZach16)

The Broncos have been adding young, athletic  (Courtland Sutton, Noah Fant, etc.) offensive talent as of late. I don’t believe Flacco is a long-term answer at quarterback. It’s only a matter of time before Lock takes over the job and I like the weapons they are surrounding him with.

4.12 Trayveon Williams (RB – Cincinnati Bengals)

Pick Made By: Justin Peek (@JPeekFF)

It’s hard to find anybody exciting with the 48th overall pick in a rookie draft, but Trayveon Williams had over 4,000 yards rushing in the SEC in his career. At 5’8” and 206 lbs, he lacks the stature you want in an NFL RB, but he did post a 4.51 forty, and has good hands and pass protects well, so he could develop a role on third down. Stash him on your taxi squad if you have one, but he has the talent to find his way into production after Giovani Bernard is gone.

foster moreau dynasty fantasy prospect

5.01 Foster Moreau (TE – Los Angeles Raiders) 

Pick Made By:  Tyler Grzegorek (@tyler_grez)

At 5.01, I’m getting a player that has the opportunity to potentially start in an offense that will value blocking abilities. Moreau’s abilities as a pass-catcher are limited and the hope is that he can develop that part of his game to be a serviceable starter at the NFL level.

5.02 Preston Williams (WR – Miami Dolphins)

Pick Made By:  Will Patty (@Willane935)

This pick for me is all about Preston Williams college production, and the opportunity for someone to emerge out of the Miami Dolphins WR corps.  He didn’t test particularly well at his pro day and wasn’t invited to the combine because of a concerning domestic violence incident. This likely contributed to his UDFA status.  At this point, I’m ok taking a flier on the hope that he does something to help me flip him for someone that I feel more comfortable cheering for.

5.03 Riley Ridley (WR – Chicago Bears) 

Pick Made By:  Keith Ensminger  (@TheSmingDynasty)

I may have failed this exercise, as Ridley is my third pick in a row to not ooze measurables.  You name the metric, and Ridley likely scored poorly – poor SPARQ scores, middling college production, a late Breakout Age, and so on.  It’s also rookie pick 5.03, and I’m getting a player drafted in the fourth round of the NFL draft to a crowded but ascending offense, while the other picks around this range in rookie drafts are mostly late-round NFL picks or undrafted free agents. “Analytics” doesn’t always have to pertain to the player.

5.04 David Sills V (WR – Buffalo Bills)

Pick Made By: Nathan Bourque (@DynstyDadStache)

This pick was entirely motivated by the fact that I had Sills extremely high on my board pre-NFL-Draft. I was very disappointed to see him go undrafted, but I think if there is any one player who can earn his way into a depth position and a team that is vulnerable to their supposed “top talent” flaming out my bet is on David Sills and the Buffalo Bills. The guy was a TD hog in college, and I think the conversion from QB to WR gave him the mental edge to know how to put himself in a position to score often. Now I am NOT a Josh Allen fan, but again, I don’t partially like the WR talent on the Bills right now. Unless Zay Jones miraculously becomes the WR we all wanted him to be (remember when the fact that he was going to have the same WR coach in Buffalo that he did in college made us all look past the fact that he was going to the ever-dysfunctional Bills?) Sills might just muscle his way into an opportunity to prove himself. 

5.05 Ashton Dulin (WR – Indianapolis Colts)

Pick Made By: David Zach (@DavidZach16)

Yet another UDFA for me. Although Dulin hailed from a small school, he crushed his per game dominator rating at an other-worldly 61%. He was practically their entire receiving offense by himself. The stark increase in his level of competition will bring him back to earth, but I also like his chance at possibly becoming the WR4 or WR5 with the Colts and having Luck throwing the ball. Maybe if he performs well he can climb up the depth chart?

5.06 Travis Homer (RB – Seattle Seahawks)

Pick Made By: Justin Peek (@JPeekFF)

Travis Homer projects to be a third-down back, and while Seattle may not have many opportunities for that at the moment, he should be able to make the roster on special teams. The back out of Miami ran a 4.48 forty and earned a 114.4 Sparq (64th percentile), and despite a 5’10” 201 lb frame, he displays a lot of heart in pass blocking, so should be an asset for Seattle on passing downs. With the backs in front of him, he’s likely a taxi stash for your roster as well, but he could be serviceable in PPR leagues down the road.

5.07 Drew Sample (TE – Cincinnati Bengals)

Pick Made By:  Will Patty (@Willane935)

Honestly looking back I think I would have considered taking Sample with the 5.02 over Preston Williams.  Tyler Eifert’s career has been marred by freak injuries, and I hope this is the year he rights the ship and plays 16 games.  That being said I just don’t think he will and I think the Bengals finally move on. I don’t think the tight end of the future is on this roster, but I am comfortable spending a very late flier on Sample with the hopes he pans out.

5.08 Dillon Mitchell (WR – Minnesota Vikings)

Pick Made By:  Tyler Grzegorek (@tyler_grez)

The Vikings have had a bunch of recent success with wide receivers drafted in the later rounds. Mitchell is oozing with talent and playmaking ability, however, his path to targets is very murky. There is a world where Mitchell sneaks into the offense as the third receiver, but he is still going to be at best 6th or so in the pecking order for targets. This is simply a gamble on the talent. 

5.09 Will Grier (QB – Carolina Panthers)

Pick Made By: Nathan Bourque (@DynstyDadStache)

This late in the draft, I’m excited if I get anyone with even a ten percent chance of starting at some point this year for any position. Cam is an all-time athlete, so I think he’ll be able to rebound and have a great season. However, if injuries take him out for any amount of time this year I think Grier is the clear next-man-up on an offense that should have some potency this year between young stud wide receivers and RunCMC tearing it up from the backfield. At the end of a rookie draft, if I get a player that might give me even just 2-3 games of startable scoring, I’ll take that. Add in the bonus of having the possible heir apparent to a young and very talented offense? Yes, please. 

5.10 Hunter Renfrow (WR – Oakland Raiders)

Pick Made By:  Keith Ensminger  (@TheSmingDynasty)

Okay, now I know I failed this exercise because after drafting Riley Ridley, I drafted Renfrow, another anti-metrics guy.  Whereas Ridley joins a crowded receiving room in Chicago, Renfrow at least has a bit clearer path to playing time with nearly the same draft capital, being drafted in the fifth round of the NFL draft.  Will he be a better NFL player than a player for your fantasy team? Almost certainly, but he could provide a decently high floor with being taken this late in rookie drafts.

5.11 Alex Barnes (RB – Tennessee Titans)

Pick Made By: David Zach (@DavidZach16)

My UDFA love knows no bounds! Again, see pick 3.11 for stats on UDFA RBs, and I’m betting on at least one of these selections to pan out. Barnes crushed the combine but it appears he has ground to make up in terms of processing the game. Considering his 226-pound frame, and if he’s able to cement himself behind Derrick Henry, he could be the next man up for the early-down back in a run offense. Temper expectations.

5.12 Jordan Scarlett (RB – Carolina Panthers)

Pick Made By: Justin Peek (@JPeekFF)

I have concerns for Scarlett coming into the NFL, as he has not shown natural receiving ability or pass blocking, but he is a fast, powerful back, and could get an opportunity to at least backup Christian McCaffrey. He has good contact balance, and gets to the line in a hurry (ran a 4.47 forty) so he could very possibly vulture some goal-line touches. I can’t say I’m excited about this pick, but you could do worse for “Mr. Irrelevant” of our five round Analytic Rookie Mock Draft.

There you have it, five rounds of rookie picks by the Dynasty Nerds analytics teams. Which writer grabbed the best value pick? Which one had the biggest reach? You can find round-one here and rounds two and three here. Leave a comment and let us know what you think. 

Follow all the guy on this mock draft @DavidZach16 @JPeekFF @tyler_grez @Willane935 @TheSmingDynasty @DynstyDadStache

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