With the new season approaching, we need to look at some players to be buying early before their breakout comes. We always want to look for these guys, like A.J. Dillon and Kadarius Toney. Gotta get them before you have to pay the premium!!
Aj Dillon is Set to Boom!
Last year, Dillon took on a more significant role in the offense later in the season, and he looked good with it! Let’s look at the last seven games that Dillon and Aaron Jones played together.
Dillon had 111 total touches, with Jones only having 86. Dillon also had six touchdowns, with Jones having three. He also had 553 yards compared to Jones having 490. Everyone is probably thinking, “But Jones will always dominate the passing game.”. Yes, Jones out-targeted him 27 to 18, but Dillon caught 17 of that 18, whereas Jones only caught 19 of his 27. Dillon was much more efficient with his targets, and he had 175 total receiving yards compared to Jones having 154.
Age and Money Factor
Jones will turn 28 during the season this year, and Dillon will be 24. Jones will earn 19.25 million in the ’23-’24 season, the most for any running back. That’s not good for the Packers, considering he’ll turn 29 that year.
Don’t be surprised if the Packers give Dillon more of the bulk this year to see if he can handle it. If he does, I see them cutting or trading Jones before the first day of the 2023 season. The Packers have a potential out and would have a $9.85 million dead cap hit per Spotrac.com.
On the DynastyNerds trade browser, I saw Dillon going for great deals! For a 2022’ second-round pick, even two 2022 seconds! I would be willing to give up a 2023 second or 2022 first if it’s projected mid or late. I saw him go straight across for Mike Gesicki and another straight across for Ezekiel Elliott (Dillon is younger and longer upside). Both are great deals, in my opinion too!
Are We Sleeping on Kadarius Toney?
Toney is probably one of the most undervalued guys right now. That means we need to be grabbing him everywhere! Many people have been down on Toney this offseason because of his mediocre rookie year. But Toney is not the blame for this, other than the lingering injuries. The responsibility is on Daniel Jones for not being able to get through all of his reads and being inaccurate.
Stats to prove the potential
Toney was top-20 in about every category that involves man defense or separation. Per playerprofiler.com, he was fifth in target rate vs. man, twelfth in target separation vs. man, 19th in total target separation, and 17th in yards per route run. He was first overall in juke rate, seventh in target rate, sixth in hog rate (targets per snap), and just slipped outside the top twenty at 23rd in catch rate. So it’s evident that he can get open and dyncatch the ball; the QB can’t get it to him.
What Does The Future Hold?
Jones will have this year to prove he can improve, and I don’t see that happening. This means they’ll draft a QB early next year in the draft, and if they get C.J Stroud or Bryce Young, Toney will explode!!! Even if they brought in a veteran like Jimmy Garoppollo or Baker Mayfield, either would bring more upside to Toney’s outlook.
Toney has gone for pretty cheap deals, so now is the perfect time to acquire him. I’ve seen him go for a 2022 second, a 2022 second and third, Hunter Henry and a second, and Rob Tonyan and a second. All are steals for Toney right now!!!
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Love Dillon and he’s positioned to succeed (he already has). I’m still not buying this Toney argument. Beyond a new coach and – presumably – Golladay coming back healthier, nothing has changed in his situation. Same bad QB, and likely a similarly bad offense. Why pay now when there’s no reason to think the arrow points up anytime soon? wouldn’t he be an even bigger value in-season?