It’s important to understand how the time of year can impact players and pick valuations. Exploiting these variances can add value to our dynasty team over time by buying low and selling high on their natural value arcs.
Note that values are on a scale of zero to ten, with five being the average value for that type of asset throughout the year. Zero and ten represent the low and high extremes, respectively.
Post fantasy season through pre-combine (Jan-Feb)
With the fantasy season wrapped up, we can look forward to the NFL playoffs and begin to look deeper into the upcoming rookie class. Overall, player valuation is low. We reflect on the performances of our players and follow them through playoff runs. The key here is injury avoidance this late into the season when their games don’t help us. There isn’t much to maintain or take advantage of at this point in the year.
- Rookie Picks 3
- Young Players 3
- Veterans 2
- Stars 4
Post combine through pre-NFL Draft (Mar-Apr)
Rookie buzz is now at its highest with some rookie movement due to their combine and pro-day performances. Athletic freaks with limited college resumes may vault up the draft boards. Players with stronger college resumes that don’t meet expectations will begin to slip. We ignore all other players as our focus is on the rookie class. This can be a great time to sell the rookie hype and unload picks in the hopes of getting an underpriced veteran.
- Rookie Picks 9
- Young Players 5
- Veterans 2
- Stars 2
Post-NFL Draft through Dynasty Rookie Draft & Start-ups (May-July)
Rookie draft boards continue to swing wildly as landing spots and draft capital come into the picture. Young players are making the start of OTAs and minicamp. News is coming out on who may have outsized roles. Hype is building for potential breakout candidates. The rookie hype will begin to fade towards the end of this period, so again, selling rookies and young players for stars and veterans can add gains to our dynasty team.
- Rookie Picks 10
- Young Players 7
- Veterans 2
- Stars 4
Pre-season & the end of Rookie & Start-up drafts (Aug)
Rookie roles are developing with the hype subsiding. Young players may be moving into more prominent roles with significant upside becoming the focus. Stars are now back in the fold, with veterans creeping up in value. Overall, values are up as we gear up for the season to start. It may be possible to find some discounted veterans at this point in exchange for an overhyped developing player.
- Rookie Picks 7
- Young Players 10
- Veterans 5
- Stars 7
Start of Season through mid-season (Sept-Oct)
It’s time to start setting rosters; thus, the veterans and star players are back at the forefront. Bye-weeks and injuries begin to pile up, creating more need for depth. This gives rise to veterans and younger players that have carved out flex spot value. However, younger players are beginning to fall as their impact largely is not going to be making lineups. Rookie picks are no longer helpful in directly gaining fantasy points each week. Competitive teams no longer have time on their side to wait for rookie picks to turn into players and may sell off to win now.
- Rookie Picks 5
- Young Players 8
- Veterans 6
- Stars 9
Mid-season through fantasy trade deadline (Nov-Dec)
It’s time for playoff teams to make their final push going all in on stars and veterans that can lift their chances towards a championship. Rookies and young players that aren’t flex-viable are largely irrelevant to rosters and will fall drastically in price. Competitive teams will hopefully have enough depth to carry them to a title without selling off assets. For the rebuilding teams, an opportunity to buy rookie picks and younger players to develop.
- Rookie Picks 0
- Young Players 2
- Veterans 9
- Stars 10
We can add a slight edge if we take advantage of the natural ebbs and flows of asset values. Buying low and selling high will allow time to help us arbitrage values.