Dynasty fantasy football runs in the 2-3 year window. There is one thing better than building that future juggernaut, though- winning today!
The Indianapolis Colts made a big move this offseason and traded for Carson Wentz to solve their quarterback woes. The Colts sent a 2021 third and a 2022 conditional second to the Eagles for Wentz.
How to handle Wentz now
I decided to take a different approach. What type of information can give me an edge over other fantasy players? What does Vegas think about the movie? I took a look at the MVP odds on sportsbettingdime.com. On February 18th Wentz’s odds of winning the MVP were +3000. February 9th Wentz sat at +4000. The lower the line, the better the expected stats.
Why does that matter? In eleven days time, Wentz has moved from the 16th most likely to win the MVP to the 13th most likely to win. Bettors looked at the change and decided that the move to Indy was good for Wentz.
Why is it good?
In Philly, Wentz needed to take the starting job back from Jalen Hurts. The best-case scenario was a timeshare for much of the season. The pass catchers revolved around an aging Zach Ertz, another tight end in Dallas Goedert, promising second-year wideout Jalen Reagor, and a host of has-beens and never was’s.
Another obstacle to statistical success is the Eagles offensive line. Put mildly; they are not good. A once-powerful unit is just a shell of itself. On the other hand, the Indianapolis offensive line is one of the better lines in the league. They look poised to withstand the pending retirement of Anthony Costanzo.
Back to the odds
While you’re are not going to make big money betting on the favorite, it does remove a fair amount of risk. Moving from 16 to 13 is not a guarantee, but keeping an eye on the movement of the odds to win the MVP can be an indicator of Wentz’s expected success.
So what needs to happen to make the odds move even lower? Well, re-signing free agent WR TY Hilton to pair with emerging second-year receiver Michael Pittman will give Wentz one of the best pair of wide receivers in his career. Running back Jonathan Taylor is a budding superstar at running back. This adds up to a powerful offense.
In Superflex leagues, Wentz’s value has already moved up since the trade. Per the Dynasty Trade Calculator, Wentz increased in value from 15.1 pts to 19.1 pts. An increase equal to draft pick 2.07-2.08.
In December, I traded Mayfield and Jones for a package that included Wentz. If you calculate how many pass attempts Wentz would have had if he had played a16 games every year, his floor is about 540 pass attempts. Conversely, Mayfield’s ceiling is about 540 attempts. Wentz should comfortably out-produce Mayfield.
I might still get that deal done today. However, I suspect I’d need to add a late second-round pick to the Mayfield/Jones side to close the deal.
So, keep an eye on the odds to keep the edge. Being ahead of the curve is what get’s you the titles!!
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