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Dynasty

Changing the Call: QB Start / Sit: Week 12

The Son of Philly makes his first appearance this week on Changing the Call by @MikeMeUpP. Make sure to read and see where your players fall!

Hello Nerds! The DynastyNerds writers are here once again to provide you with your weekly starts and sits. We will be making our recommendations based on weekly consensus rankings from FantasyPros. Here are the cast and the position groups they will be covering to help you win your week. Follow us, friend us, stalk us, whatever floats your boat!

  • QB: Mike Liu (@MikeMeUpP)
  • RB: Erik Kortz (@ekballer)
  • WR: Tristan Cook (@tristancook_)
  • TE: Mychal Warno (@dynastydadmike)
  • FLEX: Tyler Grzegorek (@tyler_grez)

Your boy is here to kick things off with quarterbacks! QBs are important decisions to make week-to-week, especially if you’re streaming. I’ll be covering off both single QB and Superflex formats here by offering some start options beyond the top 12 QBs every week.

If you’ve been following along so far, we’ve been rolling with the picks, hitting 36 of 51 or a 70%+ hit rate. Hopefully, we can keep this good streak going. Without further to do, let’s get it!

Credit: Gannett

Lock, Stock & Smoking Starts of the Week

Jacoby Brissett @ Houston Texans (Expert Ranking: QB14)

  • -3.5 Texans with 44.5 O/U → Texans 24 Colts 20.5
  • Week 11 (QB16 – 15.1 Points): 15/24 for 148 passing, 1 TD, 1 INT / 2 carries for 12 rushing, 1 TD

This is probably one of my riskier picks of the week as I go against my better judgment and pick a traveling team for TNF but it’s a bit too good of a matchup to pass up. In their prior meeting, Brissett torched the Texans secondary for over 300 yards and 4 TDs. I don’t expect him to light it up that much this time around as he’s going on the road into a hostile environment and is just coming off an injury but the Texans secondary is still just as awful. The key deciding factor here is if Hilton plays as he basically makes the entire Texans secondary his kids when active. Per the latest reports, Hilton may be active for this game after sitting out for the last 3 weeks. Keep an eye on Hilton’s status. If he’s active, Brissett is a locked and loaded start but if he sits, there are a couple of better options available.

Sam Darnold vs. Oakland Raiders (Expert Ranking: QB15)

  • -3 Raiders with 46.5 O/U → Raiders 24.5 Jets 21.5
  • Week 11 (QB7 – 25.4 Points): 19/30 for 293 Passing, 4 TD, 1 INT

Darnold is finally showing that promise a lot of us grew attached to at the tail end of last year. Granted, he’s doing it against much easier opponents than he had earlier this year but it’s still good to see. This week, he gets to host the Raiders at home. Some may be fooled by the Raiders most recent performances but don’t count me as one of them. Both games were at home and against two of the leagues’ worst QBs in Philip “F*** it and Chuck it” Rivers and Finley. Raiders are also one of the teams that performs much better at home than on the road. Before those games, this defense was getting torched through the air (Stafford – 406 yards / 4 TDs, Watson – 279 yards / 3 TDs, Rodgers – 429 yards / 5 TDs). As I’ve mentioned in prior articles, it takes two to tango and Derek Carr should be able to light up this Jets secondary that is equally bad (fresh off of giving up a top 13 finish to Dwayne Haskins). I’m expecting fireworks through the air in this matchup which should benefit Darnold.

Carson Wentz vs. Seattle Seahawks (Expert Ranking: QB17)

  • -2 Eagles with 48 O/U → Eagles 25 Seahawks 23
  • Week 11 (QB20 – 12.3 Points): 20/40 for 214 Passing, 1 TD, 0 INT

If you’ve been following me on Twitter, you’ll know that I am not the biggest Carson Wentz supporter, and for good reason. But I think this is a matchup where he should find some redemption. Like Vegas, I expect this game to be a higher scoring affair. Despite Mills playing better, I think this Eagles secondary is still a below-average unit that Wilson should be able to take full advantage of. They may have made Brady and the Patriots look awful but I’m not fooled. And Philly has no run game to speak of so it’s going to fall on Wentz again to try and will his team to a victory and keep up with the 2019 MVP candidate in Russ. I am expecting big games from Ertz and Goedert who are the 2 most reliable pass catchers on the team. This 2019 Eagles team reminds me of a poor man’s Pats team with Gronk/Hernandez. I’m expecting a borderline QB1 finish for Wentz along with a potential top 5 finish for Russ.

Bonus Start – Dwayne Haskins (Expert Ranking: QB25): Yes, I know the Redskins are bad and who hasn’t seen the sideline scene where Haskins does his best Jerry McGuire impression? “HELP ME, HELP YOU!” If you haven’t seen it, go look it up. But I think Haskins is a viable start this week at home versus the basement-dwelling Lions team which has been handing out QB1 finishes like they were early Christmas presents. Jeff Driskel has been shockingly good and proven he is capable of putting up points that should make this a higher scoring affair than most expect. Haskins already finished as QB13 last week versus the Jets at home and this Lions secondary isn’t that much better so a top 15 finish is well within the cards. Haskins makes a solid play this week in SF or 2QB leagues. It feels gross but I think we might have a sneaky play here. Watch the milly maker lineup feature Haskins this weekend.

Risky Business Sits of the Week

Credit: WSJ.net

Drew Brees vs Carolina Panthers (Expert Ranking: QB4)

  • -8.5 Saints with 47 O/U → Saints 28 Falcons 19
  • Week 11 (QB10 – 28/35 Points): 28/35 for 228 Passing, 3 TD, 0 INT

What is it with me and putting future HOFers on my sit list? Beats me but when the shoe fits, I just go for it. The Saints are expected to be heavy home favorites against the Kyle Allen led Panthers that just put up a horrendous performance vs the Falcons. The Panthers are a run funnel defense and I fully expect most of the work to be done by Kamara/Murray on the ground. Even though MT is an absolute monster, I don’t think there will be a need for Brees to throw 35-40 times this game and unless he gets 3-4 TDs again, it’s going to be damn near impossible to live up to a top 5 price tag. A borderline QB1 finish is more likely in my opinion. You may need to start him anyway but I would temper expectations.

Aaron Rodgers @ San Francisco 49ers (Expert Ranking: QB6)

  • -3 49ers with 46 O/U → 49ers 24.5 Packers 21.5
  • Week 11 – BYE

As I said before, Rodgers will continue to appear on this list for as long as the experts continue to overrate him. This is another game that favors the Packers ground attack over airing it out. Despite two solid performances by Kyler Murray, this 49ers defense is still one of the better units out there but can be had through the ground. And the Packers D is pretty mediocre all around but their biggest weakness is also the ground which is how Shanny likes to play anyway. I’m expecting this to be a slower-paced game where both teams lean on the rushing attack to put points on the board which isn’t exactly the type of game I’m looking for in a starting QB.

Tom Brady vs. Dallas Cowboys (Expert Ranking: QB10)

  • -6.5 Packers with 45.5 O/U → Patriots 26 Cowboys 19.5
  • Week 11 (QB23 – 8.5 Points): 26/47 for 216 passing, 0 TD, 0 INT

The GOAT and Rodgers make a pairing on the sit list for the 2nd time this season. As much as it pains me to admit it, the Patriots offense look like a bottom 10 unit right now. The OL can’t block and Cowboys have one of the best pass rushers in the league in Lawrence. I’m expecting Brady to lean on the run game along with quick and short passes to get a W in this game which doesn’t really bode well for his stat line. Also, the Pats still boast the best secondary in the league which I don’t expect Dak to challenge too often. Also now that we’re getting into late November, weather in Gillette stadium is going to start playing a factor. All of this suggests a slower-paced game that features Zeke and a mix of Michel and White.

That’s all for this week folks. Follow me @MikeMeUpP and make sure you subscribe to the #NerdHerd for more exclusive content. Don’t forget to tune in next week for more start / sit analysis from your @DynastyNerds writers!

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