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Changing the Call: Quarterback Start/Sits Week 7

Can Matt Ryan still be trusted as a fantasy option? Should you fire up Jared Goff fresh off a bye week? @Spydes78 brings you these answers and more in his latest installment of Changing the Call, a weekly start/sit guide to dynasty fantasy football. Check it out! ⬇️

Huddle up, Nerds! You’ve looked to your favorite dynasty site to guide you through the spring and summer months, but a strong offseason alone will not win you a championship. No matter how talented your roster, you’ll need to make the right lineup decisions to wrestle glory from your league mates.

But have no fear! Your Dynasty Nerds writers are here to shepherd you through the minefield of starts and sits. Each week, our staff will make recommendations to aid in your lineup decision making. Look for the position-specific columns below to guide you to dynasty grandeur.

Follow us, friend us, tweet us.  We look forward to hearing from you! 

NOTE: Rankings are based on a 12-team PPR league. So, saying WR2 means top 24, or TE1 means top 12, etc. and are pulled from Fantasy Pros consensus expert rankings.

About Last Week…

Previous Week Record: 1-3

Season Long Record: 18-6

Week 6 Starts:

After leading a semi-charmed life for several weeks, Changing the Call finally found adversity in Week 6. This difficulty was felt most starkly from the ‘start’ side of the ledger. All the trends pointed to a shootout in the Cardinals divisional visit to Seattle. Based on this intel, I recommended starting both quarterbacks in this contest. This proved to be a critical mistake.

The formerly red hot Geno Smith failed to eclipse 200 yards and was kept out of the end zone. Likewise, Kyler Murray stumbled with a low passing total and even committed a turnover. Despite rushing for 100 yards, the Cardinal quarterback still finished with a lackluster 15.9 fantasy points, 14th in the league.

Week 6 Sits:

On the ‘sit’ side, Marcus Mariota completely spoiled my week. San Francisco showed their defensive potential by limiting the Falcons to just 129 yards passing. Unfortunately, for the sake of my prediction, Mariota still managed to toss a pair of touchdowns and wedge one in on the ground as well. This scoring bonanza was a blind spot for my analysis and propelled Mariota to a Top 5 finish on the week.

The only saving grace of my Week 6 slate came compliments of an unfortunate injury to the surging Kenny Pickett. The Steelers rookie came out strong and looked like he was well on his way to proving me wrong yet again. However, a third-quarter concussion ended his day prematurely and put the clamps on his weekly production. Pickett ultimately ended with a lowly 8.3 fantasy points, thus preventing me from an embarrassing “0 for” in Week 6.

WEEK 7 STARTS

Matt Ryan, IND (FantasyPros Wk7 ECR: 16)

When longtime Falcon, Matt Ryan, made a move to Indianapolis in the offseason, many pegged the Colts as a dark horse AFC contender. The addition of veteran leadership at the quarterback position was expected to elevate a talented team to the next level. And though things didn’t get off to the best start for Ryan’s Colts tenure, the last couple of weeks have seen a return to the anticipated script.

In Week 6, Ryan was simply dominant. Matty Ice dropped 389 yards and 3 touchdowns on the hapless Jaguars. He showcased a strong connection with star wideout Michael Pittman Jr. and distributed scores to multiple pass catchers. The Colts offense was flat-out clicking, and that was without perhaps their best player Jonathan Taylor. The effort raised the weekly average to 266.2 passing yards, qualifying Indy as a Top 5 passing unit.

The Colts will try to carry that offensive momentum as they travel to Nashville for this week’s divisional clash with the Titans. Things look promising that they’ll do just that, as Tennessee has been generous to opposing quarterbacks for quite some time. Last season they gave up 17.5 fantasy points per week to the passer, 24th in the league. This year they’ve regressed to 28th, forfeiting a woeful 21.1 points to quarterbacks. It’s not exactly tough sledding.

Look no further than the oddsmakers for confirmation of this favorable matchup. According to betsperts.com, the lines for Matt Ryan’s Week 7 call for 268.5 yards and 1.5 touchdowns. If the Colts starter delivers on these assessments, he is in line for a 20-point fantasy week. That type of production should get your attention. Matty Ice is cold cash for your Week 7 lineup.

Aaron Rodgers, GB (FantasyPros Wk7 ECR: 10)

Yes, you read the right. Aaron Rodgers is a start recommendation for me this week. Despite the doubt surrounding the all-time Packer great, I am confident of a bounce-back effort in Week 7. I will grant you that last week’s home blowout at the hands of the Jets was concerning. However, the situation is not nearly as bleak when you examine the key indicators.

Firstly, last week’s loss was not as statistically damning as you might expect.  Rodgers still managed 246 yards through the air and a touchdown.  He was one score shy of a Top 10 fantasy week, despite the well published Packers’ receiving struggles.  His respectable PFF grade of 73.2 shows you that the future Hall of Famer’s skills have not diminished.

Perhaps the greatest reason for optimism this week is the opponent. The Commanders’ defense has been fruitful ground for quarterbacks. In 2021, Washington ranked dead last in the league, giving up 21.5 fantasy points per game to field generals. So far this season, they’ve maintained that lackluster standard, giving up 19.1 points per game. As a franchise already replete with dysfunction, a defensive turnaround against one of the game’s great players seems unlikely.

PFF is projecting more than 20 fantasy points for Rodgers this week. He is in the top 10 of the expert consensus on FantasyPros. The Packers are a 5.5-point road favorite, and there is every indication that Green Bay gets “right” when they invade FedEx Field on Sunday. Get Rodgers in your lineup, and don’t fall for the narrative that the Packers have become an inferior squad.

WEEK 7 SITS

Zach Wilson, NYJ (FantasyPros Wk7 ECR: 22)

The New York Jets are 4-2 and in the cat-bird seat vying for a playoff spot heading into Week 7! They are coming off an impressive road victory at Lambeau, which saw them take down the Packers by a score of 27-10. There are signs of life for a downtrodden franchise which can only mean that sophomore quarterback, Zach Wilson, is playing like the stud that the Jets hoped for when they selected him second overall in 2021. Wheels up, right? Better hang on to your boarding pass, my friend.

Indeed, the Jets’ winning record through six weeks is noteworthy. However, dig a little deeper, and you’ll find that success has thus far not come at the hands of their young quarterback. Since returning from a preseason injury scare, Wilson’s collective performance has earned him a grade of 64.6 from PFF, 23rd in the league. In last week’s signature road win for the upstart Jets, Wilson managed just 110 yards and was held out of the end zone. That effort secured a meager 4.5 fantasy points and placed him as the 27th-best option for the week. Not exactly Joe Namath.

Sure, Wilson is still young, and his early season performance is not an indictment of his future potential. However, this week’s matchup makes an imminent breakout seem highly unlikely. In Week 7, the Jets will land in Denver to square off with the Broncos. With an altitude that is notoriously uninviting, Denver also boasts a defense that is stifling to quarterbacks. In 2021, they ranked third in the league, giving up just 15.2 fantasy points per game. This year they’ve tightened the belt even further, giving up just 10.0 points per contest, tied for best in the league.

The game itself features an over/under of 38 points, the lowest forecasted total for any game in the Week 7 slate. Points figure to be at a premium in this game. With Wilson struggling to assert himself as a passer, and the tenacious Broncos defense lying in wait, look elsewhere for Week 7 help.

Jared Goff, DET (FantasyPros Wk7 ECR: 18)

The Lions have enjoyed moderate success with their passing game in 2022. Coming off of their Week 6 bye, they are well-rested and rank seventh in the league with 260.4 passing yards per game. However, you could argue that this prosperity has come despite Jared Goff and not because of him. His PFF grade of 62.8 ranks 27th among eligible passers. During his most recent appearance, he failed to find the end zone, posting just 229 yards with 2 turnovers in New England.

In Week 7, things will not get any easier when Goff and the Lions travel to Dallas. The Cowboys defense has been dogged, particularly against quarterbacks. They currently rank 7th in the league, forfeiting just 12.5 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Even in a losing Week 6 effort in Philadelphia, they managed to hold Jalen Hurts to just 16.9, pushing him out of the Top 10 for only the second time this season. They routinely make life tough on the passer.

Despite a strong fantasy performance for the year to date, all of the indicators are aligned on a tough week ahead for Goff. According to betsperts.com, the line on Goff’s passing output is a lowly 239.5 yards. PFF is projecting the Lions’ quarterback to post just 13.7 fantasy points, ranking 28th for the slate.

Detroit has turned some heads with their statistical outputs this season, but don’t be swayed for this matchup. Instead, listen to the trends which are telling you to stay off of Goff. He’s got a real matchup problem for Week 7, and I ain’t Lion.

In Closing…

I thoroughly enjoyed bringing you this piece and would love to continue the conversation on quarterback starts/sits. Please feel free to comment below or contact me @Spydes78 on Twitter. And also, stay tuned to @DynastyNerds for a steady pipeline of content from our eminently qualified staff to carry you through your season. If you like what you read, please consider becoming a subscriber to any of the elite tools that Dynasty Nerds has to offer. Make sure to use the promo code “SPYDES” to receive a 15% discount. Thanks for reading, and enjoy the grind!

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