Derek Carr has a new home. He has signed a four-year $150 million contract with $100 million in total guarantees. If you know anything about the Saints’ salary cap, I’m still unsure how they pulled this off. The Saints, at the moment, look to have a notch on top of the NFC South as we head into free agency. Now that we know who will command the Saints over the next four seasons, what is the dynasty outlook for this offense?
Carr’s Outlook for the Saints’ Offense
Carr, now on the Saints, is reunited with his first-ever head coach Dennis Allen back in 2014, Carr’s rookie season. He had a solid rookie campaign that season, throwing for 3200 yards and 21 touchdowns. That was his worst completion percentage, with 58% outside his 2022 season of 60%. We can only hope Carr doesn’t continue to be wildly inaccurate on the field. His dynasty value likely is a lateral move in rankings, as he is already over 31, and the offense isn’t better than the Raiders. Currently, Carr is the QB19 consensus on our site, but QB 16/17 sounds like a safe place for him.
|2016*||25||OAK||15||15||12-3-0||357||560||63.8||3937||28||5.0||6||1.1||191||75||7.0||7.5||11.0||262.5||96.7||56.1||16||79||2.8||6.70||7.20||7||7||12||AP MVP-3, AP OPoY-6, PB|
Carr could still produce high-end QB2 seasons because of the offense he has around him. Josh McDaniels can only run an offense with Tom Brady and seemingly wants too much control at the line of scrimmage. Reports say that Carr couldn’t make adjustments at the line ever. That caused lousy play and could have led to his down season. Remember that he didn’t have Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow for half the year and seemingly forced the ball toward Devante Adam’s way, with 180 targets as he should have.
Now with the Saints, you look to spread the ball more. Carr will have future star Chris Olave and the potential of Michael Thomas at receiver. Juwan Johnson isn’t Waller in terms of athletic ability but a solid TE who broke out for 500 yards and seven touchdowns. If he plays in 2023, Alvin Kamara’s ability in the passing game could help Carr see easy dump-offs for big yardage, something that Josh Jacobs didn’t have too often in that way. I don’t see Carr having the big season we saw from Matthew Stafford a few years ago but something similar to his 2020 season. He threw for 4000 yards and 27 touchdowns that year. Carr’s dynasty value is rising with his new home, and you should be looking to sell off.
Chris Olave gets a bump for sure. Andy Dalton was fine, but they played 12 games together, and just twice did Olave see double-digit targets. Carr isn’t a superstar, but he had the fifth most air yards in 2022, and Olave was eighth in air yards so it could be a match made in heaven. Carr led the NFL in passing touchdowns of 25 yards plus. He was better with the deep ball and made big plays downfield, which could feed into Olave’s progression in 2023. I don’t think this will bring out an elite upside, but he should still be a solid mid-WR2 in fantasy going into next season and a top-20 dynasty option. Olave should be brought all off-season if you can get a deal for him.
The Rest of the offense
If Thomas sticks around, which may not happen, he could have a bounce-back season. Suppose he plays in the middle of the field; that could benefit him as Carr worked wonders with slot receiver Hunter Renfrow. Thomas’ value is at an all-time low, but hard to trust he will get back on the field. Rashid Shaheed could be an exciting dynasty sleeper as he finished 2022 with four of his final six games with 50-plus yards. Johnson should be able to continue his success in a breakout 2022 season, as we’ve seen Carr rely on his tight ends in fantasy. You could get Johnson for free in trades, and be an easy throw-in piece for you to grab. As for Kamara, I see very little change in his value with Carr, as he gave Jacobs 64 targets in 2022. Kamara’s value strictly relies on his off-field issues.
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