After seeing 191 targets that led to 145 receptions, 1947 receiving yards, and 16 touchdowns, Cooper Kupp became one of the more polarizing players of the offseason. He won the WR Triple Crown, leading the NFL in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns.
Will Kupp regress? If he does, how much will he regress? These have been the two most asked questions this offseason. Barring an injury-riddled season, regression will not impact Kupp’s production to the point where he will not finish as a Top-12 receiver in fantasy. We’ll look at different scenarios for the 2022 season and where those outputs would have finished in 2021.
Cooper Kupp with a 10% Regression
After finishing as the WR1 OVERALL by almost 100 points, Kupp could see a 10% regression from his 2021 totals and would still have finished as the WR1 OVERALL. What Kupp did this past season was one of the biggest storylines of the season, and even with minor regression, he still would have been a true league winner.
| Player Name | Targets | Receptions | Receiving Yards | Touchdowns | Fantasy Points |
| Cooper Kupp 2021 | 191 | 145 | 1947 | 16 | 435.7 |
| Cooper Kupp 10% regression | 172 | 131 | 1752 | 14 | 390.2 |
| Davante Adams (WR2) | 169 | 123 | 1553 | 11 | 344.3 |
Cooper Kupp with a 20% Regression
This may be more surprising, but even with a 20% regression from his 2021 totals, Kupp would have finished just short of 350 points, STILL making him the WR1 OVERALL. A 20% regression is realistically in the cards for Kupp, and he would still be worth a first or second-round pick in startup drafts this season.
| Player Name | Targets | Receptions | Receiving Yards | Touchdowns | Fantasy Points |
| Cooper Kupp 2021 | 191 | 145 | 1947 | 16 | 435.7 |
| Cooper Kupp 20% regression | 153 | 116 | 1558 | 13 | 349.8 |
| Davante Adams (WR2) | 169 | 123 | 1553 | 11 | 344.3 |
Cooper Kupp with a 30% Regression
If I were to tell you that Kupp would give you Ja’Marr Chase production and finish as the WR6 on the season, you would be happy, right? Imagine that being considered a ‘down year’ for Kupp after his 2021 season. That’s what we will see if Kupp regresses to 134 targets. With Van Jefferson going into year three and Robert Woods returning from the ACL injury, 135-150 targets would be a realistic projection for 2022.
| Player Name | Targets | Receptions | Receiving Yards | Touchdowns | Fantasy Points |
| Cooper Kupp 2021 | 191 | 145 | 1947 | 16 | 435.7 |
| Cooper Kupp 30% regression | 134 | 102 | 1363 | 11 | 304.3 |
| Ja’Marr Chase (WR5) | 128 | 81 | 1455 | 13 | 304.6 |
Cooper Kupp with a 40% Regression
Since his ACL injury back in 2018, Kupp has had a relatively clean bill of health. He has played in at least 15 games all three seasons and saw no fewer than 124 targets in those three seasons. If Kupp were to miss a game or two this upcoming season, he would be in the 100-115 target range.
| Player Name | Targets | Receptions | Receiving Yards | Touchdowns | Fantasy Points |
| Cooper Kupp 2021 | 191 | 145 | 1947 | 16 | 435.7 |
| Cooper Kupp 40% regression | 115 | 87 | 1168 | 10 | 263.8 |
| Mike Evans (WR9) | 114 | 74 | 1035 | 14 | 262.5 |
Dynasty Outlook: 2022 and Beyond
Kupp has ‘dynasty sell’ written all over him. He is coming off a historic season and is going into his age 29 season. His value will never be higher. If your team is at the very beginning of a rebuild, you should be looking to get either multiple young wide receivers, a young running back, or multiple first-round picks.
In all other situations, Kupp is absolutely a buy. He has the two most important things situationally for a receiver. He has guaranteed volume (floor of 120 targets) and stability at the quarterback position. For the next few seasons, Kupp will see his 130-150 targets, if healthy, giving elite volume. While you cannot compare Kupp to Calvin Johnson, he can be compared to Golden Tate, who spent his prime with Stafford, giving what Kupp’s floor could look like. In his four full seasons with Detroit, Tate averaged 132 targets, 93 receptions, 1064 receiving yards, five touchdowns for 229.4 fantasy points per season. Tate’s average would be considered a down year for Kupp and still would land Kupp as a Top-18 receiver.
Here are a few trades found on Dynasty Nerds Dynasty GM involving Cooper Kupp as a BUY.
Side A: Cooper Kupp
Side B: Sony Michel and a 2022 1st
Side A: Cooper Kupp
Side B: Gabriel Davis and a 2022 1st
Side A: Cooper Kupp, Marquise Brown, and Gabriel Davis
Side B: J.K. Dobbins, Terry McLaurin, and Kareem Hunt
Side A: Cooper Kupp
Side B: Van Jefferson and a 2023 2nd
Side A: Cooper Kupp and Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Side B: Brandon Aiyuk and a 2022 1st
Kupp has everything in his favor to be an elite fantasy producer for the next few seasons. He is an elite route runner and technician at age 29, not a 29-year-old physical receiver who solely relies on athletic ability to produce. Fantasy gamers get too concerned with age at times and sacrifice scoring points, the whole purpose of fantasy football. If you are looking to win a championship in the next few seasons, Kupp is the perfect receiver to build around. The production will far exceed the cost.
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