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Fantasy Forecast: Seattle Seahawks

Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson lead the Seattle Seahawk weapons to another year of fantasy relevance! @Josh_FF provides his expectations for 2020!

For the 7th time in the last eight seasons, the Seattle Seahawks found their way into the NFL Playoffs. As the five seed, the Seahawks won in Philadelphia before being knocked out of contention by the Packers in the NFC Divisional Round. Fortunately for fantasy players, Seattle’s success wasn’t limited to the NFL, and we saw fantasy production across the board.

Russell Wilson provided top 5 Quarterback numbers, while Chris Carson finished the season as an RB1 in all formats. Tyler Lockett finished just outside the WR1 range as the WR14 in half PPR. His compliment, D.K. Metcalf, finished as WR32 in half and put up impressive numbers for a rookie receiver. Due to injuries, the Tight End position was a revolving door. Will Dissly started the season well, and Jacob Hollister provided some plug and play value at the end of the season. On the other side of the ball, Seattle’s defense surprisingly finished in the bottom half of the league.
Against the team’s outcome, Bobby Wagner remained one of the best LB’s for your dynasty team. Aside from Wagner, Jadeveon Clowney, Tre Flowers, and K.J. Wright provided some IDP value.

With the leading players still rostered offensively, Seattle’s offense hopes to progress as a unit. The addition of Greg Olsen could feasibly sure up the Tight End position. On the offensive line, Seattle lost starting Right Tackle, Germain Ifedi, and adequate backup George Fant. To replace their losses, the Seahawks have brought in 3 journeymen and drafted Damien Lewis from LSU in the third round.

Quarterback

Alika Jenner – Getty Images

Dangeruss Wilson

Russell Wilson has virtually cemented his name as a Hall of Fame Quarterback. In 2020, he’s established himself as a clear tier 2 Quarterback. While Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes are the young guns, Wilson has become the old vet that continues to get it done. The best part about Wilson is his durability. In 8 seasons, Wilson has failed to miss a game.

In 2019 Russell Wilson had a 6% touchdown rate, which was well above the league average of 4.5%. While this usually is a queue for regression, Wilson has perennially thrown at a high touchdown rate, and there’s no reason to think 2020 will be the year this changes.

Once again, Pete Carroll has established the Seattle offense will be a well-balanced attack. Carroll is quoted saying, “we want [Wilson] to have more opportunity to be the factor of the game and control the game. But that doesn’t mean you throw the football all the time to do that.” We can likely expect similar production from Wilson in 2020, but the potential growth of D.K. Metcalf could allow Wilson’s fantasy numbers to improve even beyond what was saw in 2019.

Running Back

Steven Bisig – USA TODAY Sports

Chris Carson

After breaking onto the scene in 2018, fantasy managers had their doubts about Chris Carson. With Rashaad Penny waiting in the wings, Carson skeptics were expecting a bust year out of the 3rd year back. Carson came out and proved them wrong in 2019 with the fifth-most rushing yards in the NFL.

Carson also showed capabilities in the receiving game, which even the believers thought would be Penny’s role. Instead, Carson led Seattle Running Backs in targets and finished fourth on the team among all players.

Unfortunately, Carson’s season ended in week 16 as he suffered a fractured hip. As of now, Carson is expected to be ready for week 1 to compete with Carlos Hyde. Carson’s injury history could lead to Carroll lightening the load for his workhorse back. With Penny expected to start the season on the Physically Unable to Perform List, Carson should be locked into significant targets the first eight weeks of the season.

Expecting Carson to repeat as an RB1, is wishful thinking. He’ll likely provide substantial RB2 numbers throughout the entire season, with the potential for a week winning performance.

Carlos Hyde

With Chris Carson’s and Rashaad Penny’s health in question, the Seattle Seahawks signed veteran Running Back Carlos Hyde to a 1-year deal. Hyde quietly accumulated over 1,000 rushing yards as a member of the Houston Texans. While Hyde ranked as the RB30 in PPR, he finished as the RB23 in standard formats, making him a low-end RB2.

During his six years in the NFL, Hyde has only eclipsed 30 receptions once in his career, and that was in a San Francisco offense anchored by Norv Turner. Turner is notorious for using one RB to fill every role, while Pete Carroll is not. Hyde won’t have a significant role in the passing game, and any catches should be considered a small bonus.

Weekly relevance doesn’t appear to be in the cards for Hyde unless Carson misses time. If Carson loses time before Penny returns, the ground game should belong to Hyde. Even then, Deejay Dallas could take over the passing work in the backfield. Hyde will likely frustrate managers with Carson on their roster if he is active.  

Rashaad Penny

Third-year running back Rashaad Penny has yet to record 100 touches in a season. As a first-round pick in the 2018 NFL draft, fantasy managers expected big things from Penny. Since he was drafted, Penny has not met these lofty hopes. In 2019, Penny finally had an opportunity after Chris Carson continuously put the ball on the ground. Penny’s two-game run reminded managers why they drafted him. With less than 50% of offensive snaps, Penny totaled 236 yards and 3 touchdowns over those two weeks.

After getting everyone’s hopes up, Penny’s season abruptly ended with a brutal ACL tear that is likely to put Penny on the Physically Unable to Perform List. Any expectations for Penny have been dashed until week 9 of the regular season. Once he returns, he’ll be competing with Carson, Hyde, and rookie Deejay Dallas to get on the field.

Deejay Dallas

I’m sure @DynastyPrice would remove my log-in credentials if I didn’t mention Deejay Dallas. Dallas is an underrated rookie out of The University of Miami who was drafted in the fourth round. In 2020, the running back room is a bit crowded for Dallas to have an impact. If Carson doesn’t start the season healthy, Dallas will have a chance to prove his value to Pete Carroll. As we’ve seen before, Carroll will play the best player, not the player with the most draft capital or largest contract. While it’s not likely, there is a chance for Dallas to find his way into a role in Seattle in 2020.

Wide Receiver

Genna Martin – SeattlePI

As of this article’s writing, Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf are the only two fantasy-relevant receivers in Seattle. If anything changes, keep an eye out for an update from the DynastyNerds team. There are rumors of Josh Gordon or Antonio Brown coming to town, and the signing would impact both pass catchers.

Tyler Lockett

Russell Wilson and Tyler Lockett have established themselves as one of the most efficient duos in the NFL. In 2018 Wilson recorded a perfect passer rating when targeting Lockett, but 2019 was a tale of two halves. Although he finished as WR13 in PPR formats, the second half of the season hurt fantasy managers.

Before suffering a leg contusion in week 10, Tyler Lockett was on pace to be a top 5 Wide Receiver in all formats. Over those nine games, Lockett recorded 59 Receptions, 767 yards, 6 touchdowns on 72 targets. (16Gm Pace: 104 receptions, 1,300 yards, 10 touchdowns, 128 targets).

After the injury, Lockett slowed down significantly. In his final seven games, Lockett recorded only 290 yards and 2 touchdowns. It’s difficult to interpret if the decline was due to the injury Lockett suffered, or the emergence of D.K. Metcalf. It most likely was a combination of both.

Looking forward to 2020, Lockett should still lead the team in receptions. While Metcalf may improve, the efficiency of Tyler Lockett should provide some safety to his performance on your dynasty roster. We saw in the first half of 2019 Lockett has the potential to finish as a top tier Wide Receiver for your dynasty team, but the second half of the season left us with doubts.

My money’s on Lockett to bounce back. After suffering a leg injury such as the one Lockett sustained in 2016, any leg injury must take a mental toll on the receiver. While he likely won’t record 1,300 receiving yards, he should be a high-end WR2 for your dynasty team in 2020.

D.K. Metcalf

Metcalf may have been the most polarizing Wide Receiver prospect of the 2019 rookie class. His size and speed made him loved by some, well his limited route tree and flexibility scared others away. As a rookie, he proved many analysts wrong and showed up for Russell Wilson, the Seattle Seahawks, and your dynasty team.

Metcalf demonstrated himself to be a valuable NFL receiver in 2019, but he was hard to plug into your lineup. Finishing as the WR32 in half-PPR made him look like a safe flex option. However, he only finished as a top 36WR in 8 of 16 weeks, including a 0 in week 16 of the NFL season.

Considering his 2019 season, Metcalf is poised to be an asset in dynasty. For 2020, many expect him to improve, but as long as Lockett is there and healthy, Metcalf will be the number 2 option. An ideal scenario is for Metcalf’s volume to increase, but that will likely lower his efficiency compared to 2019.

Anyone with Metcalf rostered is hoping he’ll become their WR2 in 2020, but the reality is likely closer to a reliable flex option.

Tight End

Jacob Kupferman – Getty Images

Greg Olsen

After finishing just outside the top 12 Tight Ends in 2019, Greg Olsen agreed to a 1-year contract with the Seattle Seahawks. Dynasty players likely have begun to question how much gas Olsen has left in the tank. Finishing as the Tight End 13 in 2019 showed he has some left.

The role in Seattle is a surprisingly juicy one. The Tight End position in Seattle was shared between Will Dissly and Jacob Hollister in 2019. Dissly looked good in the first half, while Hollister pulled up the rear following Dissly’s injury. Combing the stats for both tight ends would result in 135 half-PPR points, good for Tight End 8 in 2019.

If Greg Olsen still has it in him, he should see targets from Wilson throughout the season. With only two strong Wide Receivers, the targets could be plentiful. If you have Olsen on your roster, I hope he isn’t your top Tight End, but he might surprise you from week to week.

Will Dissly

For the second consecutive season, Will Dissly ended his season with a major injury. Through his first five games, Dissly was averaging 12.4 half-PPR points. That pace would have finished as the Tight End 3 behind only George Kittle and Travis Kelce.

We know what Dissly can do, but the signing of Greg Olsen could reflect some concern from Pete Carroll about his health. If he takes the field, Dissly could become a weekly starter for your team. Hopefully, we see this talented young man on the ground in 2020, but 2021 will likely have a better outlook.

Jacob Hollister

Hollister finished as the TE23 in 2019, but he had two monster weeks after Will Dissly’s injury. With Olsen in town, Hollister’s role is injury dependent. The Seahawks also drafted Colby Parkinson in the 4th round, but after suffering a broken foot in June, Parkinson’s role in 2020 looks minimal.

Linebackers

Joe Nicholson – USA TODAY Sports

Bobby Wagner leads this defense as the number one guy to roster in 2020. Even at the age of 30, Wagner is likely a top three linebacker. While he has never been a colossal sack accumulator, Wagner makes his money with tackles in the middle of the field. There aren’t many concerns about Wagner here at the DynastyNerds. He’s a weekly must-start at the LB position in 2020.

K.J. Wright is another Linebacker you can start in deeper leagues. Another player who doesn’t reach the QB, but will suddenly be close to 130 total tackles. In 2020, Wright will have to fend off first-round pick Jordyn Brooks. The rookie could also provide some value as he begins to take over the role these aging Linebackers leave behind.

Defensive Line

With Jadeveon Clowney still unsigned, the Seahawks defensive line could be referred to as an IDP desert.

L.J. Collier and Darrell Taylor hope to make an impact, but fantasy production from them would be exceeding expectations. If Clowney resigns in Seattle, he’ll likely be a force on the defensive side of the ball. If any news on Clowney breaks in the coming months, check back with the DynastyNerds team for all the information you need.

Defensive Backs

Unlike the defensive line, the defensive back positions could provide some juice in 2020. Tre Flowers finished as a top 20 DB in 2019, and at the age of 25, he’s still growing at the position. Quandre Diggs and Bradley McDougald could have an impact in 2020 as Diggs hopes to stay healthy, and McDougald secures his veteran role. Both backs fall into a broad tier of players that could provide value after the top 12 at their position.

Marquise Blair is another name worth mentioning in dynasty leagues. From weeks 7 to 9, the second-round rookie was forced into a full-time role. In that three-game span, Blair produced top 20 numbers, and the hope is that his growth can get him onto the field a bit more in 2020.

Summary

As long as Russell Wilson is under center, the Seattle Seahawks will have multiple fantasy producers every season. Wilson and Lockett have great potential to finish in the top 12 at their position. Betting against these two just seems foolish. Metcalf and Carson have a solid opportunity while on the field, but I’m still hesitant to bank on their production in the upcoming season. Greg Olsen is walking into a valuable role in Seattle and might surprise you as an excellent second Tight End for your dynasty team.

On the defensive side, a lot is depending on Clowney’s decision this offseason. Regardless, Wagner will be one of the best, while there is some deep value at defensive back. If you can find the right guy, you might strike gold. Thanks to Jeff Abercrombie for his input on the IDP portion of this article!

Give me a follow on Twitter @Josh_ff.

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