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Flexy and I Know It: Start/Sit Week 12

@ethanAwyatt brings you more start/sit advice in week 12, fresh off a mediocre week 11.

Hey Nerds! The Dynasty Nerds writers are here to provide you with weekly starts and sits. We will be making our recommendations based on weekly consensus PPR rankings from FantasyPros. Here is our squad and the position groups they will be covering to help you each week. Follow us, friend us, tweet us. 

We look forward to hearing from you!

NOTE: Rankings are based on a 12-team PPR league. So, saying WR2 means top 24, or TE1 means top 12, etc. and are pulled from Fantasy Pros consensus expert rankings.

Week 11 Recap

I went from atrocious to mediocre in week 11. I went precisely 50/50 on my start sit calls last week.

One of my two start calls panned out, and one of my two sit calls came to a realization.

The start call that hit for me is Dallas Cowboys WR Michael Gallup. In week 11, Gallup caught five passes that turned into 44 receiving yards. It netted 9.9 fantasy points in PPR leagues.

Cleveland Browns RB D’Ernest Johnson had an incredibly disappointing effort in week 11 versus the Detroit Lions. Despite the Browns being without RB Kareem Hunt again, he wasn’t able to capitalize. Johnson finished with 26 rushing yards on five carries.

Unfortunately, the successful sit call for me was Chicago Bears WR Allen Robinson solely because he didn’t suit up. So, he didn’t play in your lineups unless you just didn’t pay attention.

The sit suggestion that backfired on me was San Francisco 49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk. He had over 100 receiving yards and a touchdown in the 49ers’ victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars. Aiyuk has been catching fire recently and may finally deserve some flex consideration this year.

Starts

Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Odell Beckham Jr. (WR40)

There isn’t much of a history to go off when making this call. Hell, Odell Beckham Jr. just joined the Los Angeles Rams just over two weeks ago.

Instead, this calls’ based more on what’s around him. Objectively, fellow Rams WR Van Jefferson has been playing poorly. He has a catch rate below 60% on the season.

Before the injury to WR Robert Woods, the Rams made the move for Beckham to replace Jefferson. The idea wasn’t for Beckham to fill in or take over Woods’ role.

With that in mind, I think Beckham takes the field this week rejuvenated and returns to a semblance of fantasy relevancy. He only needs one play to have fantasy success.

Like they did in his first game, he appeared for them, I expect the Rams to design and create plays for Beckham. He’ll get around five targets this week, and that’s a good formula for him to succeed.

Credit: Baltimore Ravens

Devonta Freeman (RB27)

Since Baltimore Ravens RB Latavius Murray suffered an injury a few weeks back, Freeman has put a stranglehold on this running back room.

He’s had double-digit carries and at least three targets in the past three games for the Ravens. Freeman’s also had two total touchdowns in that period.

If you’re curious how efficient he’s been with that workload, he’s averaging 4.1 yards per carry and 5.2 yards per reception. The efficiency isn’t stellar but is far from being bad.

On top of that, the matchup is a positive one. Cleveland has only surrendered 101.4 rushing yards per game on the year, which is the eighth-best across the league.

However, they’ve surrendered an average of 145.7 rushing yards per contest in the past three games. That’s the third-worst during that stretch.

With a healthy Lamar Jackson at quarterback for the Ravens, Freeman and crew can rip apart the Browns defense on the ground.

Sits

Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

Alex Collins (RB32)

Meh. That’s the one and the only word you can use to describe Seattle Seahawks RB Alex Collins’s performance thus far this year.

Since week four, when he started receiving double-digit carries, he’s averaged a measly 3.8 yards per carry. It’s worth noting, in those seven games, he only has eight targets to go with the rushing work.

With the Seahawks offense being as stagnant as it is, you must avoid Collins as he won’t get in the endzone. It’s also likely he won’t get more than 15 carries as he’s had just ten the past three games.

Collins also faces the seventh-ranked rush defense in the NFL. Avoid playing Collins and find another option. It’s not worth the risk.

Credit: Pro Football Focus

Tyler Boyd (WR37)

A side effect of Cincinnati Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chases’ arrival has been the demise of WR Tyler Boyd. Unfortunately, Boyd’s on pace to have his worst season since his second year in the league.

He has only three games with more than 50 receiving yards and three games with more than five receptions. It’s been an all-around disappointment for Boyd this year.

On the docket, this week for Boyd and the Bengals are the Pittsburgh Steelers. In his career versus the Steelers, Boyd has averaged less than four receptions and 45 receiving yards.

He only has four touchdowns in the nine games against them, including the game they played earlier in the season.

If you play Boyd in week 12 against the Steelers, you’re hoping he gets a touchdown to save his fantasy day. If he doesn’t get that, you’ll be disappointing. Looking at the past games he’s played against them, Boyd has less than a 50% chance of getting that touchdown.

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