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From Dynasty to DFS: Week 1

Winning takes research. @DynastyMad uses some dynasty research to build a DFS lineup.

This season our goal is to highlight one lineup each week for our #NerdHerd. Remember, we’re Dynasty Nerds but we’re also football nerds. The DFS process is similar to dynasty in numerous aspects and hinges on identifying inefficiencies of opinion. The best way to win is identifying those studs that everyone is sleeping on before their prices inflate the following week.

Nerdy DFS QB: Zach Wilson

Draftkings Salary: $5,000

Fanduel Salary: $6,500

The best way to take down tournaments is to find gold in familiar places. Most people seem to think that the revenge game is on for Sam Darnold this week. However, what if the tables are turned around. What if Sam Darnold does indeed put on a show this week? I’d argue that on the other side of the ball Mr. Wilson is going to get lots of opportunities to use his golden arm as well…or his 4.42 speed!

Wilson was a 3 years starter for BYU and is taking over an offense finishing 26th or worst in the league the last 3 years. The good news for Jets fans is these aren’t the jets of yesterday! In Wilson’s 3 years he had 2 seasons of throwing a ratio of 3 touchdowns to 1 twice. With Corey Davis and Elijah Moore I could easily see Wilson creating multiple scoring opportunities.

The biggest knock on Wilson was his dominant offensive line. While the Jets aren’t known for having the best offensive line, the Panthers finished middle of the pack in terms of pressure and touchdowns given up through the air at 17th. If Wilson is given enough time this Sunday, look for him to outduel Danrold.

Wilson should see his cost increase in all formats. Once he breaks out, look for him to become a core asset on any teams. If you hold Wilson I suggest holding, and firmly believe this is the start of a great career.

Nerdy DFS RB1: Dalvin Cook

Draftkings Salary: $9,100

Fanduel Salary: $9,400

zonecoverage.com

Easily one of the top choices for any team. Typically going after Mccaffrey in any startup Dalvin Cook gets one of the best matchups on paper against the Cincinnati Bengals. Bengals enter 2020 without any major improvements to a team that finished dead last in terms of 20+ yard runs.

Cook has been dominating for the last couple of years, and I don’t expect that to change on a weekly basis. If Cook breaks out like we expect, I don’t expect much to change for his dynasty landscape as it is expected for him to do well this week.

Nerdy DFS RB2: De’Andre Swift

DraftKings Salary: $6,900

Fanduel Salary: $6,400

courtesy prideofdetroit.com

The best way for anyone to take down a tournament is to go against the grain, and Swift fits the mold here. Swift draws an undesirable team in San Francisco. Loaded with talent on defense the odds appear to be stacked against the Lions this week. However, it’s easy to forget this team is onboarding a new defensive coordinator for an offensive coach. While the scheme might not change much, it’s easy to imagine some hiccups along the way.

The best way for Swift to break out here is through the air in garbage time, or being a focal point on an offense playing the time of possession game. Look for Swift to defy the expectations of many this week and take over 60% of the snaps and finish in the top 12.

If Swift is able to blow up in this game, I can’t imagine much is changing in the landscape of his dynasty outlook. Most owners were taking him high in the second and third rounds of startups and are hoping for this type of performance and workload. If someone is low on swift as of today, I’d try to get a deal done before Sunday.

Nerdy DFS WR1: Calvin Ridley

Draftkings Salary: $7,900

Fanduel Salary: $8,100

falconholic.om

Ridley is entering a great matchup against the rebuilding Eagles. Entering the season as my WR1 I’m quite bullish on him finishing the slate the top option for all teams regardless of ownership projections. Matt Ryan has constantly turned to Ridley and the game figures to feature multiple scoring opportunities.

Nothing in this game could alter my thinking on Ridley barring injury. I don’t see a situation in which Ridley sees less than 7 targets and could easily get 10. No reason to sell him, but always be on the lookout to acquire him especially if he disappoints for some reason this week!

Nerdy DFS WR2: Corey Davis

DraftKings Salary: $4,900

Fanduel Salary: $5,800

Courtesy Sports Illustrated.

If Zach Wilson is going to blow up against the Jets, he’s going to need a pass-catcher to get there. While I’m quite bullish on Elijah Moore it’s going to be the Davis for a couple of weeks. Remember Moore is coming back from injury, and we haven’t seen him this preseason. This preseason we have seen Wilson hook up with Davis almost exclusively, and I wouldn’t expect that to change.

Davis has been on the dynasty radar for a while, and it’s possible he’s found the best home. If Davis blows up I wouldn’t be so fast to move on from him as it’s easy to forget he was a top ten selection just a couple of years ago. Davis is a player who offers long-term upside and could turn into a cornerstone if things break his way being paired with an elite quarterback.

Nerdy DFS WR3: Stefon Diggs

DraftKings Salary: $7,600

Fanduel Salary: $7,900

ABC News 10

Paying up for Diggs is an easy decision. Commanding over 100 targets twice in three years Diggs is an absolute steal this week. This might be the only week you can get Diggs and Ridley on the same team. Diggs averaged almost 20 points per game last year, and had over 100 yards and 10 catches just 10 months ago.

Diggs is an absolute stud and should be a core for several teams. Locked up with Allen look for Diggs to continue his tear-in dynasty this year. I’d imagine similar to last season Diggs will be the centerpiece to several champions at the season’s end.

Nerdy DFS TE: Dallas Goedert

DraftKings Salary: $4,800

Fanduel Salary: $5,900

Philadelphia Eagles’ Dallas Goedert celebrates after scoring a touchdown during the first half of an NFL football game against the Dallas Cowboys Sunday, Dec. 22, 2019, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Michael Perez)

Goedert is an excellent play this week for a couple of reasons. It’s well reported that Goedert has been the main target of all training camp for Hurts. It appears that they’re going to be building off of that same bromance we saw from 2020. In 2020 we saw Goedert targeted 6 or more times in two of his final three games. Failing to score from those targets, look for him to get some positive touchdown regression this week against a team with minimal improvements to one of the worst secondaries in the league.

Don’t get too upset with Ertz being back. At this point in their careers, it’s obvious Goedert is the superior athlete and player. Now might be the best time to get Goedert if owners are worried about the situation.

Nerdy DFS Flex: Carlos Hyde

Draftkings Salary: $4,000

Fanduel Salary: $4,800

Bleacher Report

No, we’re not in 2019. No, this isn’t a typo. This is me calling my shot, and letting you know Carlos Hyde is going to be the key to victory this week. Hyde isn’t an electric player, and he isn’t a great dynasty option. However, at just $3,800 on Fanduel there are several ways he scores enough to be an optimal play.

Consider this, in Meyers final 3 years at Ohio State the carries have been broken out as follows:

2018: RB1 230 carries RB2 172 Carries.

2017: RB1 194 carries. RB2 165 Carries

2016: RB1 205 carries RB2 182 carries.

That’s quite a bit of carries and quite a split. I do expect Viska to be involved, but it’s easy to see a scenario where Hyde falls into the end zone twice and pays off in that way as well. This is the ultimate boom or bust guy this week, and feel good about putting him in there.

Nerdy DFS Defense: Green Bay Packers

Draftkings Salary: $3,500

Fanduel Salary: $4,500

via 1000 Logos

Had to look for the reason to fade Kamara, and this made the most sense. If the Packers can pressure and frustrate Winston it could be an off day for the whole Saints team. Lacking targets, the Packers should ensure Kamara doesn’t beat them and make Callaway and Trautman beat them. Looking for Jameis to be vintage 2019 Jameis and cough up 6 the other way.

For more insight give me a follow on twitter @dynastymad.

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