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Getting Defensive: IDP Start/Sit Week 10

@Glosser13 gives you one start and one sit player at each position as we get ready for week 10.

Hey Nerds! As we continue to grow our IDP content here at Dynasty Nerds, we are excited to bring you a weekly start and sit for the 2020 NFL season. The weekly recommendations are based on our default scoring IDP 123. Players will be broken down by the three major positions (DL, LB, DB), with five to six defensive players per week. It’s common knowledge that you start your studs every week, which doesn’t change on the defensive side of the ball. This article will help you make the more difficult decisions before hitting submit on Sunday morning much easier on you.

Welcome back Nerds, we’re officially in the push for the playoffs with less than a month left in the season. The lineup decisions only get more stressful from here but don’t fear you have the whole Dynasty Nerds IDP team on your side. I urge you to use those resources to make the correct lineup choices to make sure you lock your spot in the postseason. Let’s talk IDP fantasy football. 

How Did I Do

Week 9: 3 Hits (Grady Jarrett, Rashaan Evans and Daniel Sorensen) 3 Misses (Cam Jordan, Josey Jewell and Harrison Smith)

Although another .500 week, the misses bothered me a bit more than usual this week. Mostly because two of the three misses were breakout games and 20+ point performances, those misses tend to sit with you a bit longer because performances like this can swing a matchup in your favor big time and lead to a win for your dynasty team. We take the good with the bad around here, and we’re moving on to Week 10.

DL

START

Emmanuel Ogbah (DL, LB) 

Miami Dolphins vs Los Angeles Chargers

Emmanuel Ogbah had me doubting him a few weeks back that he could continue his current pace. Safe to say I’m a believer now. The Miami Dolphins best pass rusher is on pace to set career highs in both tackles and fantasy points. Ogbah is a waiver wire steal in IDP123. His production has been a huge boost to IDP managers. Especially this season where we have been robbed of two of the game’s best in Danielle Hunter and Nick Bosa, both on IR.

The Numbers

The Miami Dolphins pass rusher currently sits 4th in the NFL in sacks with only Myles Garrett, Aaron Donald, and Trey Hendrickson ahead of him. Ogbah currently ranks as the DL9 in IDP123 scoring and has the 7th highest fantasy PPG average at 15.1 per game. The level of consistency shown this season has really been impressive. Ogbah has multiple five tackle games, which gives him a very safe tackle floor. DL is a position where tackles aren’t relied on nearly as much as other positions.

In IDP123 scoring, the big plays are the most rewarding, and Ogbah has been as good as they come in that regard. Since Week 2, Ogbah has registered at least a half-sack in every game bringing his season total to 7.5 through eight games. Emmanuel Ogbah has had at least 16 fantasy points or more in five straight games. Considering how well this defense is playing, I don’t expect this to change anytime soon.

The Matchup

The Dolphins will return home riding a four-game winning streak, including two upsets over the Rams and Cardinals. Rookie quarterback Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers will be in town. It is a matchup that will be watched closely by everyone as the QB2 and QB3 in the 2020 NFL Draft square off. Footballoutsiders.com has the Chargers offensive line ranked just above league average in sacks allowed and adjusted sack rate. The Chargers have given up two sacks in each of their last two games. The Dolphins only have three sacks in their last two games, but two of those have resulted in defensive touchdowns. I’m hopeful Emmanuel Ogbah can keep his sack streak going and continue his case for waiver wire steal of the 2020 season.

Sit

Carl Lawson (DL, LB)

Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers

One of the early season surprises for IDP managers was the emergence of Carl Lawson. The former Auburn Tiger had 3.5 sacks over his first four games and looked to be poised for a breakout year. The Bengals desire to limit snaps and move on from Carlos Dunlap ultimately led to his trade right before the team’s bye week. The Bengals dealt their veteran pass rusher to the Seattle Seahawks, a move that appeared to open things up for more snaps for Lawson.

The Numbers

Despite a promising start to the season over the past four weeks, Carl Lawson hasn’t proven he should be in anyone’s starting lineup. In week one, Lawson had 16 fantasy points on just 44 snaps. In weeks four through eight, he has a combined 18 fantasy points. The injuries to Sam Hubbard and D.J. Reader have really put immense pressure on Lawson to produce. Carl Lawson is on pace to set career highs in both fantasy points and tackles, but he remains a boom or bust player, with the latter being more common this season.

The Matchup

The Bengals upset the Tennessee Titans in their last game before the bye week and will have the same chance this week when they face the undefeated Pittsburgh Steelers. Pittsburgh looked extremely beatable last week in a close win against a depleted Dallas Cowboys team. The Bengals front four will struggle to create pressure against a very good Steelers offensive line. Pittsburgh has only allowed ten sacks this season, that’s tied for 2nd best in the NFL. The Bengals have only two sacks total since week six, with none of those coming from defensive linemen. The Steelers haven’t allowed a sack since week 8. All the signs point to an unfavorable matchup for Carl Lawson and the Bengals defense.

Credit: buffalorumblings.com

LB

Start

Tremaine Edmunds (LB)

Buffalo Bills vs Arizona Cardinals

I’ll be honest with you guys I never envisioned myself having to put Tremaine Edmunds here. Prior to the season, I had him ranked as high as dynasty LB5. A very rough start to the season combined with a shoulder injury had many IDP managers fading Edmunds. One of the most reliable LB units in all of IDP fantasy football took a major hit this season with both Edmunds and his running mate Matt Milano being hurt in the first two weeks. This game we play rewards patience from time to time, and it has paid off for the Edmunds truthers who didn’t panic.

The Numbers

In his first two years in the NFL, Tremaine Edmunds finished with over 250 fantasy points each season, including 115 tackles or more in each season. Despite missing a full game and being banged up over the first month of the season, Edmunds still leads all Buffalo LBs in snap percentage at 83.7% and total snaps played at 502. In IDP123, scoring Tremaine Edmunds 15.6 fantasy PPG is higher than Kyzir White, Joe Schobert, Shaq Thompson, and Micah Kiser. All those players are considered matchup-proof LBs every week. Since week four, Edmunds has had at least eight tackles in all but two games and hasn’t finished with less than 11 points in a game. Last week Edmunds 33 fantasy points were his most since week 17 of the 2018 season when he put up a career-high 42.70 points.

The Matchup

The 7-2 Buffalo Bills will take on another NFC West opponent in the Arizona Cardinals and dual-threat QB Kyler Murray. If you look at the past two years, Edmunds has fared well against dual-threat QB led offenses with 44 total fantasy points in his last two weeks playing against Cam Newton and Russell Wilson while also putting up a monster game in 2019 of 27 points against NFL MVP Lamar Jackson. I believe Edmunds plays his best when he can use his speed and ability to spy QBs who like to take off 10+ times a game. I’m expecting another solid performance this week from the Bills stud LB.

Sit

Jon Bostic (LB)

Washington Football Team vs Detroit Lions

I have little to no luck when it comes to recommending a sit for LBs this season, so I won’t bore you with a long breakdown. The matchup with Detroit here doesn’t move the needle enough for me to cover it. Jon Bostic has been a pleasant surprise for IDP managers through the first half of the 2020 season. In 2019 Bostic finished with a career-high in fantasy points with 193 and is still on a pace to top that this season. The benefits of playing LB behind a stud defensive line are wonderful for IDP production.

The Numbers

Through the first month of the season, Jon Bostic finished under 20 fantasy points in a game only once. In his last four games, Bostic has finished with 10 points or more only once. It really has been a big drop off for the 29-year-old LB. If you remember, one of my sleepers this year was Cole Holcomb, who started the season injured. Since his return in week six, he has out produced Bostic in each of the last three games.

In Week 9, both LBs were on the field for 70+ snaps, something the Washington defense has become familiar with. Bostic played 100% of the defensive snaps to Holcomb’ 90%. It’s clear with both healthy, they will be the two playing the most snaps. As reliable as Jon Bostic has been, he struggles to make the splash plays where Holcomb already has two of those plays in just three games. Cole Holcomb has been and will likely be the more productive IDP going forward.

Credit: news5cleveland.com

DB

Start

Ronnie Harrison (DB)

Cleveland Browns vs Houston Texans

The surprising trade that sent former Alabama DB Ronnie Harrison to the Cleveland Browns before the season shocked a few IDP managers. Harrison, only 23, joined a talented defense who needed the most help in the secondary after rookie Grant Delpit was sent to IR during training camp. It took him a little while to settle in, but over the past month, he has found his way and is back producing for IDP managers in a big way.

The Numbers

Despite only playing in 14 games, Harrison finished with 70 tackles, two sacks, and two interceptions in 2019 on his way to 180 fantasy points. Before taking over the starting strong safety spot in week seven, Harrison only had four tackles on the season. In his last two games, he has 19 tackles, including one sack and one fumble recovery. Over the last three games, Ronnie Harrison has at least 15 fantasy points in each contest, including two 25+ point performances. Snap counts can dictate production; Harrison has seen his season-high in snap percentage over the last two games with 84% and 96% in those games.

The Matchup

The Browns matchup with the Houston Texans and their big-play offense this week. The Texans have given up some big fantasy games to opposing DBs over the past few weeks. The Texans had given up at least 5 tackles or more to a DB in each of their last three games, including week six, when they allowed 8 tackles to three different DBs against the Titans. I expect Ronnie Harrison to continue his stellar play and turn in another respectable performance this week.

Sit

Terrell Edmunds (DB)

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals

The Edmunds brothers both made the start/sit column this week but unfortunately, not for the same reason. While he has not dealt with the injuries his brother has this season, Terrell Edmunds has been extremely disappointing in IDP leagues this season. As the Steelers defense has improved, which is evident by their 8-0 record the 3rd year safeties numbers have taken a big hit. Through eight games, Edmunds is on pace for his worst year in fantasy production since entering the NFL.

The Numbers

In 2019 Terrell Edmunds finished with 105 tackles through eight games. This year he has just 32. Last season Edmunds finished with single-digit fantasy points just six times. In 2020 he has four of those performances in just eight games. One of the easiest tools to use for consistent fantasy production is finding a safe tackle floor. In 2019 Edmunds had only three games with less than five tackles. He has five of those games already in 2020. Using IDP123 scoring Edmunds is DB83 on the season. He’s not cut able in deeper dynasty leagues, but in shallow leagues, there’s no excuse for him to be anything more than a bye week fill-in guy at this point. Using Sleeper’s projection in IDP123 scoring, he hasn’t matched his projection since Week 5 and has only beaten his projected points twice all season, both weeks one and two.

The Matchup

Pittsburgh will put its undefeated record on the line against rookie QB Joe Burrow and the Bengals. Joe Burrow has 13 turnovers this season, and the Steelers defense has been one of the league’s best at forcing teams into those. The amount of sub-packages and different DBs the Steelers use doesn’t give me much hope for Edmunds fantasy outlook this week. The former Virginia Tech Hokie only has one sack this season and zero big plays. Outside of a double-digit tackle game, there’s little hope a breakout performance is coming anytime soon.

The Wrap-up

That’s it for this week, Nerds. I’m looking forward to another solid week of football and hoping this content can help you make the most informed lineup decisions this week. Please feel free to reach out to me on Twitter @Glosser13 as well as checking out all the IDP content over at Dynasty Nerds. Keep grinding; we are getting close to your next dynasty championship.

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