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Getting Defensive: IDP Start/Sit Week 3

@Glosser13 Recaps his accuracy for weeks 1 and 2 and brings you week 3 IDP Start/Sit

Hey Nerds! We continue to grow our IDP content here at Dynasty Nerds. I am excited to bring you a weekly start and sit for the 2020 NFL season. The weekly recommendations are based on our default scoring IDP 123. Players will be broken down by the three major positions (DL, LB, DB). I will cover five or six defensive players per week. It’s common knowledge that you start your studs every week, which doesn’t change on the defensive side of the ball. This article will help you make the more difficult decisions before hitting submit on Sunday morning much easier on you.

As the first two weeks are now in the books. It’s time to start recapping the hits and misses, which I will cover every week for you. The grading scale we will set at eight fantasy points. This is a respectable start for any IDP every week, especially when looking past the studs and finding your value starts that most times are on waiver wires, even in dynasty leagues.

How am I doing?

  • Week 1: 3 Hits (Buckner, Bostic, Minkah Fitzpatrick) and 2 Misses (Jerry Hughes and Christian Kirksey) 60% Accuracy
  • Week 2: 4 Hits (Abram, C. Winovich, Chinn and Trey Flowers) and 2 Misses (Jabrill Peppers and De’Vondre Campbell) 66.77% Accuracy

An early lesson I learned in doing this for the first time is never bet against highly productive linebackers. They seem to always find a way to get it done. My two biggest misses were both inside LBs (Kirksey and Campbell). The Dynasty Nerds team will be here all year, giving you start and sit recommendations. We just hope to build up a good relationship with our readers to be trusted enough when you’re forced to make those tough game-time decisions. The best way to create this trust is to hold ourselves accountable, and there’s no better way to do that other than recap our success every week.

Week 3 here we go. 

Start

Kerry Hyder (DL) 

San Francisco 49ers vs New York Giants

The reigning NFC Champions are in big trouble. Specifically, on the defensive side of the ball. The 49ers are already playing without Richard Sherman, who was sent to injured reserve before Week 2. Following a 31-13 win over the Jets, the 49ers would learn that Nick Bosa would also be sent to IR with a torn ACL while also ruling Dee Ford out indefinitely with a back injury.

The 49ers finished fifth in the NFL in sacks last season with 48 due in large part to Bosa and Ford. With them missing time, someone will have to step up.

Kerry Hyder is looking to be that guy; he has played 85 snaps in his first two games, which accounts for 57.8% of snaps. The snap count is guaranteed to increase with him now being named a starter after the Bosa injury. Hyder was 2nd on the team in tackles in week two, behind only Fred Warner, and is tied for the team-high in sacks with one. There’s a very big chance Hyder can be a dependable IDP for the remainder of the season. He is averaging 13.5 fantasy points per game (FPPG). The New York Giants have allowed the second most sacks in the NFL through two weeks at 7 with an adjusted sack rate of 8.5%, which ranks 22nd in the NFL according to football outsiders.com.

I personally lost at least six Nick Bosa shares this past weekend. I will be making it a point to try to acquire Kerry Hyder through waivers and hope he can give you even half the production that Nick Bosa was projected for this season.

Kareem Jackson (DB)

Denver Broncos vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers 

There’s no secret A.J. Johnson and Justin Simmons are the most attractive players for IDP managers in 2020. I’m here to show some love to an old man still getting it done, Kareem Jackson. Through two games, it’s really no secret the Broncos defense isn’t anywhere nearly as talented as years past, especially with key injuries to Vonn Miller and A.J. Bouye.

We all know how gross it is in dynasty to roster the “old man”. Still, when that player gives you consistent production, it’s totally worth it. Those extra fantasy points every week could be the difference in making or missing the playoffs in your league.

Kareem Jackson ranks top 15 amongst all defensive backs in total snaps through two weeks at 146. He is joined by Justin Simmons in playing 100% of the defensive snaps this season for the Broncos. Jackson has averaged 12 FPPG in each of his first two weeks and has beaten his projected point total each week. The struggles of the Broncos offense after losing Drew Lock, Phillip Lindsay, and now Courtland Sutton will surely put more pressure on the defense. An uptick in total snaps could be coming meaning more opportunities for fantasy points.

Shaq Barrett (DL, LB, EDGE)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Denver Broncos 

The 2019 NFL sack leader Shaquille Barrett has started slowly as he’s likely to become the major focus of opponent’s game plans going into the 2020 season. Despite only registering 17 fantasy points through his first two games, there’s plenty to be excited about going forward.

Barrett is playing 91.5% of defensive snaps. The facts are that he just isn’t making the splash plays that he did a year ago, and some of that might be due to Jason Pierre-Paul being healthy to start the season.

The Tampa Bay defense has six sacks, two forced fumbles, and two fumble recoveries through two games. Barrett hasn’t been a part of any of those high scoring plays. I have a distinct feeling that changes this week when the Buccaneers play the Denver Broncos, who have already allowed six sacks this season. In Denver’s Week 2 game against the Steelers, every offensive lineman allowed multiple pressures. As a team, they allowed quarterback pressures on 28 of 47 dropbacks. If Barrett doesn’t produce double-digit fantasy points this week, it might be time to fade him until he proves he can be close to as productive as he was last season

Sit

Germaine Pratt (LB)

Cincinnati Bengals vs Philadelphia Eagles 

Although I told my fellow Nerds that I learned my lesson on not betting against high percentage snaps linebackers, I have to make an exception this week for Germaine Pratt. The former third-round pick was highly productive in the Bengals opening game finishing with 12 tackles. But, he followed that up with a very bad performance in Week 2 with only two tackles. The game flow was very friendly to Pratt as the Browns continued to run Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt at them all night. However, Pratt could not seem to make the plays. That led to him not seeing the field as much the second half in favor of Luke Wilson.

While Pratt still holds the second-highest snap percentage among Bengals LBs, the writing appears to be on the wall that either Luke Wilson or Akeem Davis-Gaither could see more snaps with Pratt struggling.

Through two weeks, Germaine Pratt has a 35.3 overall grade and a 33.5 run defense grade per PFF, and those are amongst the worst of all starting LBs. The knock on Pratt has always been his struggles in coverage. Still, now with his run defense being in question, there’s little reason for the Bengals to commit to him being an every-down LB at this point and very little reason dynasty managers should commit to him being every week starter.

Trey Hendrickson (DL)

New Orleans Saints vs Green Bay Packers 

If I’m being completely honest, I don’t feel great about this one. Hendrickson has been great this season, so betting on him having an off game is a bit risky but hear me out.

Trey Hendrickson has scored 39 fantasy points through his first two games playing opposite of Cam Jordan. At times, he has looked unstoppable. The toughest test of the season will be this week for Hendrickson, who likely draws the unlucky task of playing against David Bakhtiari and the Green Bay offensive line that’s only allowed one sack this season.

The Saints defensive line rotates frequently, and it would surprise most to know Hendrickson only plays 56.7% of the defensive line snaps, which is 4th amongst New Orleans defensive linemen. The effectiveness Hendrickson has had on just 85 snaps would appear to be unsustainable, and of those 85 snaps, 54 of them have been against the pass despite him having an above-average run defense grade per Pro Football Focus. There’s also no ruling out the return of Marcus Davenport, who reportedly is close to coming back and likely will take either the starting spot back from Hendrickson or best-case scenario cut into his snap share percentage.

http://theathletic.com

Carlos Dunlap (DL)

Cincinnati Bengals vs Philadelphia Eagles 

Sometimes, the hardest thing to do in all of fantasy sports is to move on from the name value of older players and not start them although they’ve been very productive in the past. There is no age bias when you’re building a complete dynasty roster. A good mix of younger and veteran players is key but winning a championship takes the skill of being a good manager and knowing who to play and when.

Carlos Dunlap has been as consistent as you could imagine over his career with 7.5 sacks or more in every season since 2013, but the 2020 season’s start has not been good for him. The Bengals have only two sacks on the season, and Carlos Dunlap is only playing 62% of defensive snaps, which is 3rd on the team for defensive linemen. I’m not ready to write off Dunlap yet, but for now, he just can’t be relied on for his normal production we’ve come accustomed to seeing.

The Bengals defense, in general, is very bad. As long as teams can continue to run the ball effectively, as the Browns did Thursday night, I don’t like Dunlap’s chances to keep his streak of big sack numbers alive. This pains me to put Dunlap in the sit spot this week as I have been a big fan over the years, so this is one I’m secretly hoping I’m wrong on but through eight quarters of the 2020 NFL season, the numbers just don’t lie.

That’s a wrap for this week

Hopefully we are in store for another great week of NFL football and please no more injuries this weekend. As we continue on here on the defensive side of the ball if there’s any stats or metrics you feel could be included in future articles feel free to reach out on twitter @Glosser13. Look forward to hearing from you guys and until next week good luck nerds! 

Make sure you subscribe to the #NerdHerd, where you get exclusive content, dynasty/rookie rankings, buy/sell tool, and a bonus podcast too. DynastyNerds also recently launched the #DynastyGM tool, which is a complete game-changer in the fantasy industry. Click here for a free trial. We truly are your one-stop-shop for all your fantasy football needs!

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