Find out the latest information on how Dobbins’ torn ACL affects his dynasty value, who replaces him on the Ravens, and what the future holds for Dobbins, dynasty fantasy football, and more. Additional information was provided by one of our resident medical Nerds- Johnny Goode.
Our worst fears came true Sunday morning when it was announced that J.K. Dobbins tore his ACL during week 3 of the 2021 preseason. The Ravens were playing in Washington against the Football Team. In the first quarter, he carried the ball off the left tackle-side and got hit by multiple Football Team players. He’s the third star running back to suffer a season-ending injury in the past month. The other two were Travis Etienne (Lisfranc) and Cam Akers (Achilles).
On record, I don’t understand at all why starters would ever be playing in the last week of preseason. There’s no real benefit at all. It’s just all risks and regret. This could’ve been avoided and should’ve been. If I were a hardcore Ravens fan, I’d be livid that John Harbaugh played him. Also, if you’re looking for sympathy because you drafted Dobbins before this injury, you won’t see that here. Dobbins career and monetary future could be forever altered by this tragic injury. Heal up Dobby.
Warning: the images/video is only for those who want to see it. It will be used to help explain what happened by Johnny.
When Might Dobbins Come Back? Response by Johnny Goode
The biggest thing is that we can expect 12 months-ish. We’ve seen some guys come back early, but I’d assume that we would see a similar timetable that we’ve seen with Saquon. I wouldn’t expect Dobbins to play the preseason. What happens when guys come back a little early is their risk for a different injury goes up. We saw this with Dalvin Cook in 2018-he had some significant hamstring issues the next season because he might not have been fully ready to play.
What’s the Long-term Outlook for Dobbins? Response by Johnny Goode
You have guys like Adrian Peterson who had a non-human post ACL recovery. Then there’s Todd Gurley, who tore his ACL in college and is dealing with arthritis in the knee-which that long-term outcome is supported by the research. Frank Gore tore his ACL twice 7 months apart in college, and we see how long his career has been. Cook looks like he’s doing great post his tear.
Dobbins has a good chance of being more in line with Cook, given that the arthritic issues that come after an ACL year typically take years. I am optimistic. He has age on his side, and the timeline looks good, being this happened early. Not ideal by any means, but I wouldn’t give his career a death sentence.
What is Dobbins Worth in Dynasty Start-up Value?
J.K. Dobbins is still a valuable dynasty asset. His career isn’t over. ACL tears are not nearly the career-threatening injury they used to be. Medical science has come a long way. Dobbins is out for an entire season, so that obviously affects his trade and draft capital value.
If you’re in a start-up for a 1QB PPR dynasty, there are two paths you can take. If you’re trying to win this year, I most likely won’t take Dobbins. After all, why would you try to win now with a guy who’s going to take a spot on your IR all year?
On the other hand, if I’m drafting long-term and attempting a “rebuild,” I’d be very tempted to take Dobbins. I would take Dobbins in the 7th round or later. His talent is real, and it will be hard to ignore from that point on. You could get a high-end RB2 for the 2022 season by taking Dobbins and waiting.
When you find yourself in a super-flex PPR dynasty start-up draft, look for Dobbins around the 10th round. I can’t imagine you’re taking him earlier than that in win-now or rebuilding drafts. Maybe the 9th round if you take the rebuild draft strategy. He’s worth the risk.
What’s he Worth in Trades?
According to Johnny, “there may be a buy-low window right now, but once we get into next off-season, I think that window may close (if I held him all season, why would I trade him on the off-season sort of mentality), but there may be a buy-low window to start 2022 if he gets off to a slower start.”
In my response to Johnny, I have to say that I agree. He’s the best buy for rebuilding teams. If I were to find myself (I do) with a team that I needed to rebuild, I’d be trying to sell my veteran players for him. He helps you rebuild by not only getting younger but also helping you lose this year.
Dobbins can sit on your IR while you lose your weeks and get a top pick in the rookie draft next year. Then, Dobbins comes back next year ready to help your team win. Although I’m already rebuilding, like Johnny said, and I find Dobbins on my team, then I’m not trading him. There’s no point to it unless you get an overpay.
Finally, Dobbins is worth a high first or two low firsts in 1QB PPR leagues. Whereas in the SF PPR leagues, he’s worth a mid-late first and probably a second. He’s still young, talented, and this will be the cheapest you can get him for.
Gus Edwards is Primed to Take Over as the Lead Back
Gus the Bus is here to run roughshod over opposing defenses. He’s been excellent in a backup role and is ready to take on more. There’s a chance that the Ravens bring in a veteran back to help. However, I’m not worried about a Gurley, Duke Johnson, or Leveon Bell signing affecting Gus’ job security. In fact, I predicted Gus would break out this season. Although, I truly didn’t want it to happen because of this.
The Ravens aren’t going to become a passing team. They will still be rushing the ball quite a bit. Those carries will be split among Lamar Jackson, Ty’Son Williams, and Gus. Accordingly, the lack of passing to Dobbins might help Mark Andrews a bit. He should receive more short-yardage targets since Dobbins isn’t there.
The Ravens love Gus the Bus. They kept him as a restricted free agent and signed him to an extension. He’s been one of the best backs since 2018 in terms of yards per attempt and PFF rushing grades. Additionally, he had a higher yard after contact per attempt average. His was 3.6 to Dobby’s 3.3.
Gus is now a mid-RB2 capable of being a league winner if you have him on your team. He rose from a flex play at best to now an every-week back. He’s going to rank inside the top-24 backs consistently comfortably. The Ravens will be feeding him the ball. Plus, I’m projecting him for 1,000+ yards and 7-8 touchdowns! That’s a steal for what it took to acquire Gus the Bus originally.
If I’m win-now and just lost Dobbins, I’m gladly trading my 2nd round pick for Gus in super-flex PPR leagues. Whereas in 1QB, I’d most likely pay my first. He’s a one-year rental, but he’s the best one-year rental I can think of. Find yourself with a rebuilding team? I’d be selling Gus Edwards quicker than TVs on sale on Black Friday. He’s going to drop in price significantly come the off-season.
Gus the Bus is going to bus you to the playoffs. Dobbins’ injury has significantly changed the NFL and fantasy football world. May he get better soon, and may you not miss the chance to buy/sell Dobbins and Gus, respectively.
Don’t miss out on the chance to get a discount on DynastyNerdsGM! Use my promo code: maytheforcebewithyou in order to get a discount on ANY subscription!
I am always on Twitter at @DarthDbacks and in the largest Fantasy Football Chat on Discord under the same username. I hope this season goes excellent for you, and I’m happy to help on Twitter or Discord anytime! Also, happy to discuss Star Wars, Marvel, Baseball, movies, or writing with you.
As always, May the Force be with You…
Get the Edge – Join the #NERDHERD
- Dynasty Nerds Logo Sticker 3.99$ – 4.49$
- #Nerdherd Pennant - American Apparel 3/4 sleeve raglan shirt 34.99$ – 37.49$
- Dynasty Nerds Logo and Pennant | Dad hat 26.50$
- Dynasty Nerds Embroidered Champion Packable Jacket 49.00$ – 52.00$
- Dynasty Nerds Pom-Pom Beanie 22.50$