Don’t read the headline of this article and move on. It feels dirty to do an article on the value of Jared Goff, but I wanted this to be the second edition of my lukewarm takes based on reality. Because it really seems likely by my projections. We should not be writing him off. Again, I will come back at the end of the year and see how these take played out. Goff will be a value this year and likely in 2022 by providing a solid fantasy floor.
Nobody wants to talk about Goff. It’s safe to say that almost everyone is off him, as both a long and short-term fantasy option. And I am fully ready for the flak in the comments about how low people have Goff ranked. Let me make this very clear: this is not a pitch to go out and get Goff in 1QB leagues or as a QB2 in Superflex if it can be avoided. This article is strictly related to the Superflex dynasty value of a player that was once very promising and is now left for dead.
Goff is a value in dynasty as a QB3 on a competing roster when looking through my projections. The price is too low, and a buying window is open. My prediction for the next two seasons is that Goff will provide stable mid-range QB2 numbers and be a valuable asset for contending Superflex teams.
Before we get into why Goff will produce this year, let’s talk about where he is going in drafts. In 1QB best ball, he is close to being undrafted. I have been grabbing him in the 18th round of most of my best ball leagues, around the 210th player off the board as QB30-32. You read that right. He’s going after basically everyone.
In dynasty Superflex startups, it’s the same story. He is going right around the 120 mark. QB is the most valuable position in those leagues, and Goff is still going after James Robinson, Will Fuller, and Tony Pollard. Not one of those guys is likely to be a stalwart in your lineup like Goff could be. The value is insane. At the very least, Goff should be somewhere in the 85-95 range, not the back end of the tenth round, as he is now. As far as “for sure” starters go at the quarterback position in Superflex: this is as low as it gets.
Now let’s get into this Lions offense. Everyone thinks the Lions will be a bottom-five scoring team, but I wouldn’t be so sure. PFF ranks the Lions O-line as a top ten unit this year, and I expect that to cover many sins for this offense as the year goes on. I expect Penei Sewell to be a stud right out of the gate, and Goff will have some time to throw the ball. Being able to run consistently with D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams will open up Goff’s play-action, which has led to him being successful in the past.
The receiving core isn’t elite by any stretch of the imagination, but there are some pieces to be excited about. The aforementioned Swift and Williams are both excellent pass-catching backs that provide safety and a target close to the line of scrimmage. T.J. Hockenson is coming off a Pro Bowl second year, and many analysts are projecting another step forward this year. The wide receivers are lackluster, but there are a few legitimate deep threats to pair with the new addition of Amon-Ra St. Brown, who is already getting great buzz in camp.
While I have concerns with the coaching staff and the lack of weapons, there are more weapons here than most people think. The evidence can be found in the rankings. Collectively, the fantasy community still has faith in Swift and Hockenson this year. Drafters are still taking shots on guys later in drafts, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Quintez Cephus, for example, that could be the WR1 for the Lions. Pair that with a rebuilding defense and a team that will lose its fair share of games: Goff is going to have to throw the ball.
Goff as a Talent
If you aren’t convinced, let’s look at Goff himself. He is only 26 years old, and let’s not forget, he was the number one overall pick, been to two Pro Bowls, and led the Rams to a Super Bowl. All of that in only four full seasons.
Now, a lot of that can be attributed to Sean McVay and the Rams’ weapons in those years, but Goff still needed to get the job done. Fantasy-wise, Goff has always been at least a QB2 and has a top-six finish to his name. I know that the arrow is pointing down, but no one is around to replace him yet.
Goff has just as much chance to hang onto this job next year as many of the guys going ahead of him in start-ups. When we talk about giving another chance to Daniel Jones, Carson Wentz, Sam Darnold, and Drew Lock, Goff should be in that conversation as we look at the future. The Lions do have a possible out in his contract in 2023, but there is that chance that Goff looks good in the next two years. Even if he isn’t with the Lions, he can get a chance somewhere else and revitalizes his career.
What Do We Do?
The risk with Goff is worth the draft pick at this point. News from camp is one thing but look at the press from the Lions scrimmage on Saturday. Goff was 12 of 15 with three touchdowns while playing without most of the wide receiver core. He has more talent than he gets credit for and will likely end the year as a mid-range QB2.
Why aren’t we jumping to get him as a QB3 in Superflex if that is the case? Even if you aren’t in a startup, what is the cost to get Goff right now? A late first? A second and a player? Kick the tires in your Superflex leagues and see what you can do to acquire him. I guarantee he will start more games for your team at the end of the year than you expect.
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