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Jay Cutler – Dynasty Breakdown

When Miami hired Adam Gase in 2016 he was a very highly sought after candidate to NFL teams coming off his work with Peyton Manning and turning around the very erratic Jay Cutler in Chicago. Gase was viewed as a QB whisperer and Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill was viewed as nothing more than a game manager. Gase in one year working with Tannehill helped him set career highs in yards, yards per attempt, yards per game, interceptions thrown and plays of 20 or more yards. Tannehill was criticized for his weak deep ball but in his first season under Gase he has piled up 48 plays of 20+ yards. Tannehill looked to be showing improvement under Gase despite a pretty awful offensive line in 2016 who ranked as the 30th ranked unit according to Pro Football Focus. Tannehill missed the rest of the season after getting hit low in week 14 against the Cardinals and despite being on pace to finish under his yardage total from the year before he was leading the Dolphins to a potential wild-card berth in 2016. Tannehill’s numbers weren’t on pace to be great in 2016 but a big part of that was the development of a run game in Miami to create balance. The Dolphins improved from the 23rd ranked rushing offense before Gase’ first season as the coach to the 9th ranked in 2016 with the emergence of Jay Ajayi.


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Miami had high hopes for their offense after losing to the Steelers in the playoffs to end 2016. QB Ryan Tannehill with a full offseason to recover from his knee injury and a truly balanced offense entering 2017. So you can imagine how devastated both Dolphins fans and dynasty owners were when Tannehill went down with a noncontact injury in practice effectively ending his season before it began. Journeyman backup QB Matt Moore stepped in well for Tannehill to finish out 2016 but nobody was excited to see him be the starter for a full season especially for dynasty owners. Tannehill’s injury shook the dynasty community even with a down year from Tannehill all three WR’s Jarvis Landry, Kenny Stills and Devante Parker still managed to finish in the top 50 of PPR WR’s for 2016. Miami looked to be scrambling for a QB not wanting to go into the season with Matt Moore as the starter, they were linked to Colin Kaepernick who is the last guy I would want throwing to my WR’s as a dynasty owner and recently retired Jay Cutler who seemed to be the favorite the whole time.

 

Jay Cutler who was all but set to start an announcing career at FOX weighed over his options for a few days but ultimately decided to come back and signed a one-year $10 Million deal with the Dolphins for 2017. Cutler has been a well-established QB in the NFL throwing for more than 32k yards and 208 TD’s in his career. Cutler coming off his own injury that forced him to miss all but 5 games in 2016. Cutler’s biggest draw to Miami was obviously his familiarity with Adam Gase. Cutler’s stats under his one year with Gase in Chicago in 2015 is something as a dynasty owner to get excited about even if it is for potentially one year.

 

GP At/Cp Cp % APG Avg YPG TD INT 20+
15 311/483 64.4% 32.2 7.6 243.9 21 11 63

 

Cutler’ 2015 season with Adam Gase as offensive coordinator saw him finish with his 2nd best completion % of his career, his best season in TD-INT ratio, passer rating, and 4th quarter comebacks. It’s clear that of all the coordinators Cutler has had in his career he thrived the most under Gase and this fit in Miami could be perfect timing.

We can start with the strengths of Cutler’ in this Dolphins offense. Cutler as I stated played very well under Gase in Chicago he also has an elite level arm and a far better deep ball accuracy than Tannehill. This offense in Miami has potential to be the most talented offense Cutler has been on. In terms of the deep ball, Kenny Stills finished 3rd in the NFL with 17.29 yards per reception and breakout star DeVante Parker finished with 13.29 YPR. Cutler has the arm to make big plays in every season he’s played minus both his rookie year and his 2016 injured season which he only played 5 games in each he has at least 37 plays of 20+ yards. In Cutler’ only season under Gase, both Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery finished as WR1’s in PPR leagues that has to be a huge encouragement for both Jarvis Landry and DeVante Parker owners.

Adam Gase is looked at as a great offensive mind around the league and although he has taken over some historically bad offenses since his departure from coaching Peyton Manning his offenses in the past two seasons have finished 21st overall in 2015 and 24th in 2016. As highly as we think of Gase as an offensive guy he hasn’t been the greatest QB producer in terms of fantasy points since his time in Denver. In 2015 although Cutler produced two fantasy studs in Marshall and Jeffery he still only finished as the QB20 in PPR averaging just under 15 fantasy points per game. In 2016 Tannehill finished in a short season as QB27 averaging 14.6 FPPG and Matt Moore as the QB36 in just a few games averaging 13.7 FPPG. An interesting fact in 2015 and 2016 both Matt Forte and Jay Ajayi finished as RB1’s. Fair to say as much as we focus on the QB position in Gase’ offense it’s the skill position players that benefit the most. One of the most underrated stats to Cutler’ game for fantasy is his rushing upside which is slept on by many people. How often do we see the ability to scramble out and get rushing yards benefit a QB’s total fantasy points at the end of a season? Cutler in his career averages 11.9 rush YPG it may not be a huge number but he has 9 rushing TDs and 12 rushes of over 20+ yards. These numbers can easily be a difference maker on a weekly basis.



It may just be me but I’m a firm believer this offense in Miami fits Cutler better than Tannehill. This has been proven as in three separate superflex leagues this offseason I have traded for Jay Cutler and intend to start him. These trades were nothing spectacular and I still have to be realistic that there is over a 85% chance this is a one year rental but you truly never know one really good season under Gase in Miami could shake things up in South Beach following the 2017 season. Cutler has as much chance to finish as a QB1 this season as Tyrod Taylor and Matt Stafford do who both finished as such last season. I’m pretty sure I don’t have to explain to you how much cheaper Cutler is than both of those guys. Cutler steps into an offense with great depth at WR, a red zone threat at TE in Julius Thomas who is also a former Adam Gase guy and a young explosive RB coming off a RB1 finish the season before. As long as Cutler stays healthy he can rival his numbers from the 2015 season under Adam Gase in Chicago. With a bye week to start the NFL season and his cheap value as is Cutler is a good guy to look to add to your dynasty teams. The upside outweighs the risk tenfold in standard one QB leagues and I can’t stress enough the importance of having as many starting QB’s as possible in superflex leagues.

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About JonGlosser

Buffalo N.Y native, Die hard Syracuse basketball fan. Fell in love with football at a young age and can't keep my opinions to myself, so I decided to write about them. Enjoy