It’s getting close Dynasty Nerds the end is on the horizon. It makes most of us sad but we are in the middle of a playoff run or trying to make moves to better our chances in the draft for 2018. This season has been crazy, to say the least from a dynasty perspective to break down on a weekly basis for you guys. As an analyst you can put it all the work all offseason and it’s not until the games are played you realize just how right or wrong you were on some players. These last few weeks will be bittersweet for most trying to get everything ready for another busy offseason to make your dynasty teams stronger but I ask you to hang with me because most of these talking points you can use as help in the trade market and rookie evaluation as the season ends. Let’s get into the week 11 edition of what we learned.
It was one of the most depressing things for dynasty owners a few years back when Jimmy Graham was traded from the Saints to the Seahawks. Graham saw a massive dip in production where he was putting up WR numbers with Drew Brees to essentially a run-heavy offense in Seattle. Graham once mentioned in the same breath as Gronk was almost instantly forgotten about in most dynasty circles and for good reason. Graham seemed to struggle to adjust to Seattle’ offense and to make matters worse in week 11 of 2015 ruptured his patella tendon in his knee which is an injury that is the most difficult to come back from for NFL players. Fast forward to week 11 of 2017 NFL season and Graham currently has more receiving TDs than every WR other than Nuk Hopkins and Will Fuller. Graham struggled out of the gate not finding the end zone until week 5 but since then has seven scores in five games. Graham has twelve red zone targets in ten games this season that is seven more than he saw in his first 27 games as a Seahawk. Currently ranked as the TE4 on the season in PPR leagues it’s time to recognize that Graham is again a big advantage to dynasty teams.
- Late Season Adds: Non Contender
Well, I have to be able to help those teams that are on the outside looking in as a playoff team. I have a few dynasty teams that are playing for the rookie draft at the moment and we have to realize that although it sounds great not every team is a contender every year. I found a few guys I’m targeting before the offseason gets here if possible to try and get ahead of a price increase once the season ends. Tyrod Taylor is the QB I would be after not only for next year but to end this season he can provide serious value. Taylor is basically out as the Bills QB for next year being benched in the middle of a playoff run. Taylor is never going to be an attractive dynasty asset to anyone but the facts are he puts up numbers that can help win you a championship and that has never been more evident than 2017. This year in dynasty leagues Case Keenum and Josh McCown are single-handedly saving seasons and these guys were waiver wire adds even in some Superflex leagues. Taylor currently sits as the QB12 in not even a full ten games this season. Taylor can’t be relied on as a 300+ and three touchdown QB but he’s a solid contributor and his rushing upside gives you a distinct advantage at the QB position. Taylor couldn’t be cheaper at this point and is almost guaranteed to be a starter in a better situation next season. Next up is the Bengals offense, obviously Mixon is the most attractive piece here but depending on the owner may be very difficult to acquire. Any of the Bengals would be an interesting addition going into 2018 they have some upside pieces in Josh Malone and first round rookie pick John Ross who just can’t simply find a way to see the field. The Bengals currently average 55.1 plays per game over the last 10 seasons no NFL team has averaged less than 56.7 that is an alarming stat. If and when those numbers increase at season’s end or next year we will see better production from this offense for our dynasty teams. The last guy I’ll mention is Tevin Coleman. Coleman who will be a 25-year-old free agent RB for the money-strapped Falcons will see a payday from some NFL team that believes in him. In the past two weeks with Freeman hurt, he has seen 20 carries in both games totaling 126 yards and two touchdowns. Coleman may never be a workhorse back but he has serious dynasty value this offseason and if you can get ahead of that before his price rises like crazy you will be playing this game the right way. Coleman had serious production with Kyle Shanahan and wouldn’t rule out him landing there this offseason. On paper his dynasty value instantly skyrockets and you want to be in the driver’s seat before that happens.
- RBBC Snap Counts
I decided this week to go away from the RB report and break down some RBBC snaps from last week to help out the dynasty community. We lost two huge dynasty contributors in Chris Thompson and D’onta Foreman last weekend which was a crushing blow to the Zero RB truthers. The Eagles, Broncos, Patriots, and Ravens are the four major teams I urged to stay away from in dynasty leagues last offseason because of the RBBC. It’s been tough to do for most given the injuries and suspensions at the RB position so I broke down what we saw last week in the event you own a piece of these backfields who you can be confident with going forward. The Eagles went with touches in this order Blount (30), Clement (19), Ajayi (13), Barner (2). As far as this backfield goes it’s frustrating, to say the least. Ajayi ranks the highest in PPR leagues as RB28 but isn’t seeing enough touches to justify an every week start. In the past two weeks, Corey Clement who went undrafted has scored five touchdowns. Doug Pederson is the definition of riding the hot hand and this situation is just brutal I have the most faith in Ajayi if he can cut into the snaps Blount is getting he would still be the guy. Next up the nightmare that is the Patriots backfield. There snaps last week went as follows Lewis (26), Burkhead (19) and James White (17). Burkhead since his return from injury has seen big volume but with his fumble, last week could shorten his leash. Lewis has been the most productive and most trusted it seems over the past month or so but White who was the Super Bowl hero ranks the highest as the RB20 in PPR leagues. James White and Lewis are the most trusted here with Lewis gaining a slight edge with his ability to run inside the tackles more successfully than White can. The Ravens are up next and the snaps were Collins (38), Woodhead (13) and Buck Allen (10). This situation now becomes a mess with Woodhead back and I’ll say right off the bat he is the only trustable back here. Allen has been great in his absence but becomes nothing more than a deep bench guy now with Woody back. The real tough start here every week is now between Collins and returning from injury Terrance West who was a scratch last week. The Ravens offense is very poor so them dressing and playing four RBs in highly unlikely. Flacco is worst in the league in yards per attempt this increases the value of Woodhead and Allen, I would steer clear of Collins and West until we see more consistency. The last team is the dreaded Denver Broncos. Broncos snaps went like this Booker (48), CJA (29) and Charles (4). I don’t have to tell you that owning any Denver Broncos right now has been frustrating. Broncos are a mess at QB and the running game hasn’t been enough to carry them to help our dynasty teams. CJA has been very inconsistent and finally found the endzone again for the first time since week two but also lost a crucial fourth-quarter fumble. Booker has seen the majority of the snaps the last few weeks and who knows what will happen now with Mike McCoy fired as the O.C. I suppose Anderson would still be the favorite here going forward.
- Late Season Heros
I think we all look for this every year since the 2014 draft when OBJ burst on the scene late and just about won every owner a championship. Although this is rare specifically for a rookie I chose a few guys I think who could be crucial down the stretch and help us win some dynasty titles this year. First up and this should make some smile is Sammy Watkins. Watkins has been so frustrating this year as I predicted with a tough CB schedule but with the injury to Robert Woods may see a huge spike down the stretch. Woods hurt his shoulder last week and has the possibility of being out multiple weeks which will leave 22% of the Rams targets up for grabs. Sammy is at his best when he is being force fed and with that all but likely given the Rams WR situation now he could be a huge boom player down the stretch. Finally rewarding dynasty owners when they need it the most. Another key WR down the stretch is Jamison Crowder who I have been touching on in most of my redraft articles. Crowder has been huge the past few weeks for the Redskins with over 271 yards the past two weeks. The loss of both Kelly and Thompson in the run game could lead Cousins to a shorter passing game where Crowder is a matchup nightmare in the slot. The PPR points should come in boatloads during the playoffs. There is a theme here WRs will apparently save your season. DeVante Parker is the last WR I will touch on he has been so consistent and with Miami down in nearly every game from here on out should see a potential for some huge fantasy weeks. If you take away Parker’ week five where he only played three snaps he is the only WR in the league through 10 weeks to see at least eight targets in every game. This should start paying off down the playoff stretch and make owners very happy. Well, it wouldn’t be right to not include an RB seeing as how David Johnson is most likely responsible for 75% of dynasty championships from last year. This years hero could possibly be Kareem Hunt who currently sits as the RB3 in PPR leagues despite not finding the end zone. Hunt plays at home against five defenses that rank in the top 10 of yards per carry allowed. This is great news for Hunt owners and as long as Andy Reid gives him carries could be a league winner for the majority of his owners.
- Where The Yards Are Coming From
Found an interesting graph on Twitter that broke down the % of yards per team. This is a telling stat for some teams and I thought I’d share a few thoughts on y takeaway from the data. Only one team the Patriots have over 3,000 passing yards and they gain over 44% of their receiving yards from the RB and TE position. The Seahawks, Saints, Lions, and Bucs all have over 2,700 pass yards but get over 60% of those yards from the WRs. The Ravens, Bears, and Bills all rank as the worst with under 2,000 passing yards with all three teams getting 53% or less of those yards from WRs. Four teams the Cardinals, Steelers, Dolphins, and Jaguars have less than 15% of the yards coming from the TE position but all have had at least 62% of those yards from their WRs with the Steelers at a crazy 78%! The Titans rank as worst in the league at RB yardage production with less than 10.53%, The Browns are worst at WR yardage at 48.68% and the Steelers rank last in TE yardage with 11.74%. Found these numbers interesting I’m not convinced they help a whole lot for the end of this season but they are if nothing else good talking points for the dynasty community.
That Will do it this week guys. I appreciate you guys sticking with me for this series this year. Hoping to get these out every year to help out the readers. This week we are a little late with the holiday I apologize for that but I hope you all had a great turkey day and enjoy the rest of week 12. I will catch up with you guys next week and you can as usual always hit me up and follow me on twitter to talk dynasty.