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What We Learned – Week 6

Welcome back to the week 6 version of what we learned. Another crazy week of upsets in the NFL and high hopes for our dynasty teams. Trying to predict this crazy game from week to week is a losing battle. I will admit how much easier it is to break down a season in chunks of games or from a full season than it is from week to week. Checking stats and on pace projections based on how guys have started a season will bring you to a state of depression as a dynasty player. In 2017 so far it doesn’t matter if you stacked WRs or went heavy RB in your startup there is disappointment all around. I put together some talking points this week and interesting stats to touch on for this week. Hope you guys enjoy it.




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  • The Julio Effect

 

I decided to post the Julio photo as the header of the article this week because as we all know dynasty is a “what have you done for me lately” game and let’s be honest Julio hasn’t done enough. Through five games Julio has one red zone target less than Taylor Gabriel who possibly would still be a free agent if it wasn’t for Kyle Shanahan bringing him in when he was the O.C last season. In his past three full games Julio has finished as the WR16, WR26 and WR22. This just simply isn’t good enough for a top elite NFL WR and prize possession in dynasty leagues. In basically four and half games Julio has zero touchdowns in 2017 but I encourage owners to stay the course and not sell low. Julio will bounce back and get back on track. The red zone issues can be fixed and an interesting stat I read was that the Falcons have only ran seven plays inside the 10 yard line this season. Matt Ryan has regressed since the departure of Shanahan to San Francisco and the Falcons high powered offense has taken a major step back. Julio is one of the best WRs in the game and is still on pace for 1,000 yards when then touchdowns come he will be back in the WR1 conversation again. Julio has zero WR1 performances this year without any touchdowns and one red zone target he has still finished as a WR2 in his past three full games. The return to greatness is coming for Julio Jones.

 

 

  • The Zero RB

 

Now every week I break down the zero RB vs the bell cow RB argument. I decided to take a smaller approach this week and look at the zero RB star instead and look at his play. Chris Thompson has been an absolute dynasty stud this season week in and week out and a guy that everyone keeps expecting to fall off but he just keeps producing. Thompson was a dynasty stash in most leagues going into 2016 and after getting a majority of the pass work last year he was seen as basically the 3rd down back for Washington heading into 2017. Thompson currently sits as the RB7 in PPR leagues with limited touches every week. Thompson has 25.5% of the Washington receiving yards and 15.9% of the team’s targets. The receiving numbers are what is making Thompson a great performer every week even his own coach has stated he wants to keep his carry numbers under 10. Thompson has more 100+ yard receiving games than Julio, Evans, Mike Thomas, Dez, Amari and Jordy combined. This stat blew my mind and if you’re lucky enough to own Thompson I don’t know what the right move is. Hold for this magical run he’s on because he makes you a real contender or sell high because it has a very Danny Woodhead feel to it that eventually he is gonna get hurt and you’ll be stuck second guessing yourself that you could have sold high on him. I don’t value RB as highly as others so for me it’s a sell in the right situation but I could absolutely see just riding this thing until the wheels fall off.

 

 

  • No Touchdown For You

 

This is a quick talking point that I felt I should touch on quickly. Shady McCoy, James White and Andre Ellington are the only top 36 RBs without a touchdown in 2017. Most shocking is McCoy by far being a workhorse on a terrible Bills passing offense he has 114 touches in five weeks without a score.  Holding out hope this isn’t the start of the end for McCoy but it’s not like the Bills have a choice he’s by far the most talented weapon on offense so the touchdowns will come soon. White and Ellington are seen as mostly PPR specialists so finishing as top 36 RBs without finding the endzone yet is pretty encouraging. White can keep this pace I’m not sold that Ellington can with the addition of Peterson in Arizona. Let’s jump to WRs of the top 36 WRs Thielen, Garcon, Demaryius Thomas and Julio have yet to score a touchdown. I already discussed the Julio case in the situation for Thielen and Garcon the QB play has been so inconsistent that touchdowns have been tough to come by. Thielen playing with a borderline superstar in Diggs limits his touchdown upside but with Diggs sidelined right now he has seen 34% of the team’s targets in his absence. DMT had his first dominant performance of 2017 against the Giants without scoring a TD. The Broncos identity is run the ball and play defense so Thomas’ volume has been limited in a strong start for the Broncos as they’ve been running the ball well. The targets are there for all these WRs so touchdowns are bound to come.

 

 

  • Tight End Takeaways

 

We all know how this goes by now the TE position in dynasty is so top heavy that if you don’t own a top 3-5 guy you are scrambling every week and hoping for a big week. Here’s a few stats I found so far on the 2017 season that drive this point home. Three TEs are on pace for 10+ touchdowns Gronk, Ertz and Cameron Brate. Three Tight Ends are on pace for 1,000 yards Gronk, Ertz and Kelce. It’s deflating to most owners including myself that Jordan Reed isn’t in either of these two categories but it has to be encouraging that Ertz has solidified himself as a stud TE. Zach Ertz has has been a TE1 in all six games this season while the next closest is Gronk and Kelce with four games each. Ertz has been a TE1 in 13 of his last 16 games. The emergence of Wentz has made Ertz a top dynasty asset at TE. Ertz and Kelce lead the NFL in TE targets with third place being Giants rookie Evan Engram who is on pace for a huge rookie season for a TE. Last stat I saw I loved was ASJ leads all TEs in catches since his return in week 3. ASJ is the only Jets pass catcher with true dynasty value going forward so this news is encouraging.

 

  • Passing Notes

 

Dynasty twitter is great for stats on a weekly basis as I scroll down my timeline I find at least 50+ stats on a weekly basis. I wanted to share some with you guys and take them and use them as you wish. These are things we can take away from watching the games live on Sunday but the generous people in the great twitter community put them in numbers for us.

 

  • 10 teams with double digit passing touchdowns
  • 5 teams with 5 or less passing touchdowns
  • TEN, TB, PIT, OAK, NYJ, MIA, IND, BUF, ARZ have zero pass touchdowns to RBs
  • Dolphins and Panthers have zero touchdowns to TEs
  • ARZ, GB, HOU, MIA, OAK over 80% of pass touchdowns to WRs
  • CHI, CLE, TB, TEN over 50% of pass touchdowns to TEs
  • Dolphins and Bills only teams without 1,000 passing yards
  • Raiders have zero 300 yards pass games.
  • Raiders have zero 100 yard receiving WR and 100 yard rushing RB games.

 

 

Dynasty Stashes

 

Mack Hollins – Hollins is a big body WR starting to be worked into the Eagles offense more.

 

Deonte Thompson – Just signed by the Bills. Bad offense but somebody has to catch passes.

 

Bobby Rainey – Ravens used him quite a bit last week. Easy stash for a complicated backfield.

 

Rod Smith – Zeke rollercoaster is confusing. Smith could see value if he’s suspended.




 

That’s it for this week Nerds! It was a crazy week and I’m sure this will be the case all season. There is a hundred different takeaways and stats I could put in these articles every week but who wants to read a three page essay of my dynasty thoughts? Brief takeaways on a weekly basis I love to do for you guys so as always keep building those dynasty teams and hit me up on twitter at anytime to talk dynasty.

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About JonGlosser

Buffalo N.Y native, Die hard Syracuse basketball fan. Fell in love with football at a young age and can't keep my opinions to myself, so I decided to write about them. Enjoy