Welcome back, Dynasty IDP Nerds, to another edition of Man Coverage. We break down the start and sit options for those tough lineup decisions facing you every week. Unfortunately, that bad week stuck us with an abysmal 4-9-1 record this past week with just 2.86% accuracy. This brings our season total down to 52.86% on the season.
Check out the other start/sit articles by the talented Dynasty Nerds team.
- QB: Jason Snyder (@Spydes78)
- RB: Gage Bridgford (@gbridgfordnfl)
- WR: Tristan Cook (@tristancook_)
- TE: Jake Oliver (@DarthDbacks)
- FLEX: Ethan Wyatt (@DynastyWildcat)
- IDP: Jon Glosser (@Glosser13)
There’s very little confidence after a rough week but let’s dive into Week 5.
New York Jets @ Atlanta Falcons
Quincy Williams LB, DB New York Jets
Quincy Williams has been the LB to emerge as the top option to play alongside C.J. Mosley. In the off-season, it seemed it would be either Jamien Sherwood or Hamsah Nasirildeen, but that hasn’t been the case. Quincy Williams has played 39.2% of defensive snaps. Only C.J. Mosley plays more at LB for the Jets. Williams has three straight double-digit fantasy games. According to my data, the Atlanta Falcons give up an average of 48.1 fantasy points to the LB position through the first four weeks. Only three Jets LBs play more than 30% of defensive snaps for the season. This puts Williams in a great spot to continue his outstanding play.
Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings
Will Harris DB Detroit Lions
Will Harris has been the most consistent DB for the Detroit secondary through the first quarter of the season. Harris has 24 tackles and 10 points or more in three of four games this season. Harris is playing 92.1% of snaps this season although his snaps dipped to just 74% in week 4. Tracy Walker is the more attractive IDP in Detroit based on name value but Harris has been a pleasant surprise. The Minnesota Vikings only allowed a total of five tackles to the Browns safeties a week ago. Harris has zero impact plays on the season and his tackle floor isn’t high enough to be a start this week in a bad matchup.
New Orleans Saints @ Washington Football Team
Cole Holcomb LB Washington Football Team
There shouldn’t be any league out there where you are rostering Cole Holcomb and not starting him. This will be the last time I likely put him in this column, but he’s in here this week because I’ve recently answered advice questions surrounding him. The Washington LB is currently the LB10 through four weeks and has played the sixth-most snaps of any defender in the NFL. Holcomb has 41 tackles and a forced fumble through the first four games. The loss of LB Jon Bostic may only increase his workload and tackle numbers. He’s a safe start every week.
New England Patriots @ Houston Texans
Kyle Dugger DB New England Patriots
Kyle Dugger has been fairly consistent to start his second season. He’s averaging 11.5 fantasy points per game in 2021. New England has seemed to trust the young DB more despite having veteran leaders in their secondary. Dugger has played an average of 55.5 snaps, the third-most on the team. New England’s defense played very well last week against one of the best offenses in the NFL. They will look to get back on track playing against their second rookie QB this season, the last meeting with a rookie this season, the defense forced four interceptions. The Houston Texans turned the ball over five times on offense last week against Buffalo.
Miami Dolphins @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Joe Tryon-Shoyinka LB, DL Tampa Bay Buccaneers
It appears the Tampa Bay Buccaneers got another good one in Washington Huskies pass rusher Joe Tryon-Shoyinka. Tampa Bay drafted him with the last pick of the first round of the 2021 NFL draft. The rookie is starting to turn heads already with a big performance in the absence of veteran Jason Pierre-Paul who is dealing with an injury. The Buccaneers rookie posted two sacks and registered 24 fantasy points.
Jason Pierre-Paul is on track to return this week in a plus matchup with the Miami Dolphins, who’ve allowed the fourth-most sacks (13) in the league. Joe Tryon-Shoyinka has earned snaps with his play but predicting who will make the impact plays is going to be a chore. I’d guess that it would likely be a 60-40 snap split. This is an avoid for me unless JPP is ruled out again, which doesn’t sound likely.
Green Bay Packers @ Cincinnati Bengals
Adrian Amos DB Green Bay Packers
Adrian Amos has been one of the more underappreciated fantasy performers in IDP leagues over the past year. The Green Bay Packers’ safety has 53 fantasy points on the season while playing 99% of the defensive snaps. Amos has only fallen short of 10 fantasy points once in his last eight games played. The Cincinnati Bengals allowed four different DBs to record 5 tackles or more last week. This should be a plus matchup for the Packers’ secondary, and I expect multiple DBs to post double-digit fantasy points.
Denver Broncos @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Caden Sterns DB Denver Broncos
Don’t get me wrong. I’m a Caden Sterns fan. I’ve been since his freshman season at Texas, when he recorded 62 tackles and four interceptions. The landing spot in Denver will do wonders for him long-term, and he can be a very good player in that defense. However, he’s riding a streak of unsustainable production; Sterns has 48.60 fantasy points on the season with 45.60 of those in the last two games. More importantly, he’s done this over the last two games on twenty snaps total. I’m all for riding the hot hand, but there’s no evidence that this can continue for the rookie defensive back as, eventually, the impact plays will regress, as will his production. There are better options, even if you’re desperate this week.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Carolina Panthers
Jermaine Carter LB Carolina Panthers
All the hype this off-season for Jermaine Carter was unwarranted. The 4th year pro from Maryland hasn’t been very good. Carter won the starting middle linebacker job before the season, but outside of playing 95% of snaps in the opening game, there hasn’t been much of anything to talk about. The former Maryland LB hasn’t recorded more than four tackles in any game this season, nor has he recorded an impact play. The loss of Shaq Thompson could see his snap count rise above 90% again like it was in Week 1, but I’m not sure it will matter if he’s not a reliable LB in IDP leagues. According to Fantasypros.com, Carter does not have a weekly finish above LB79 this season.
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Jeffrey Simmons DL Tennessee Titans
Jeffrey Simmons posted his second double-digit fantasy performance of the season in Week 4. Simmons has played 115 snaps in the last two games and is at 87% on the season, the most of all Titans defensive linemen. The anchor of the Titans defense has a 68.9 overall grade according to PFF and has been consistent this year despite only 1.5 sacks on the season. As always, Simmons is a must-start in DT-required leagues, but he has a good enough matchup this week to be in your lineups at DL.
Cleveland Browns @ Los Angeles Chargers
John Johnson III DB Cleveland Browns
It’s so painful at times when a highly productive IDP switches teams, and their value just plummets, but as a dynasty manager, it’s so hard to bench them because of their past production. John Johnson becomes the second Los Angeles Rams defender in the past two seasons to leave for a new team and watch their production take a huge dip. Johnson has played 98% of the team’s snaps this season and has failed to meet his weekly projection in every game. He has only posted 10+ points once. The Browns defense seems to be going to a more matchup-based attack making it very difficult to figure out where players will line up weekly and just how many snaps they will play. IDP managers will need to say a prayer to the fantasy gods that Johnson can turn it around and become a must-start DB again.
Chicago Bears @ Las Vegas Raiders
Yannick Ngakoue DL Las Vegas Raiders
Yannick Ngakoue has been the forgotten man for the 3-1 Las Vegas Raiders. Maxx Crosby has become the plug-and-play starter along the revamped defensive line. Yannick has helped the Raiders defense become a formidable unit with 45 pressures through 4 games; that’s the eight-best mark in the league. Yannick has been underwhelming to start the season with just 7 tackles and no sacks. This week, there’s hope as the Raiders pass rush matches up with the Chicago Bears offensive line, who have allowed 16 sacks this season. Yannick has graded out with an 80.5 pass-rush grade from PFF while playing 73% of snaps. Only Maxx Crosby (75%) plays more.
San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals
Jaquiski Tartt DB San Francisco 49ers
There’s nothing attractive about the 49ers secondary from a dynasty perspective but the best of the bunch is Tartt. The 49ers’ safety has played 100% of the snaps in the past three weeks. He’s played 93% on the season. Tartt has recorded at least four tackles in every game this season with two double-digit performances. The Arizona Cardinals allow 71.5 IDP123 fantasy points per game to defensive backs. Tartt has a solid chance to turn in another 10+ point game this week.
New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys
Keanu Neal LB, DB Dallas Cowboys
Keanu Neal is making his return from the COVID-19 list this week after missing the last two games. Neal played 72% of snaps in each of the first two games, averaging 9 fantasy points over those games. The former Atlanta Falcons DB turned LB will likely see an uptick in snaps with Jaylon Smith being cut this week. The Cowboys hybrid LB has not graded well over his first two games, but he’s trusted by Dallas defensive coordinator Dan Quinn, so I like his chances to be on the field enough to be a solid start this week.
Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs
Taron Johnson DB Buffalo Bills
The Buffalo Bills DB has been very underrated over the past two seasons. Taron Johnson finished with 223.70 fantasy points compiling 93 tackles in 2020. Johnson sat out last week’s dominating defensive performance of the Houston Texans but is back practicing fully ahead of this week’s rematch of last year’s AFC championship game with the Kansas City Chiefs. The Bills DB has 55 fantasy points in just three games and managed 16 fantasy points against the Chiefs offense last season. The Chiefs offense passes on 58.63% of plays, the Bills will need a huge performance from Johnson to help slow the high-powered Kansas City offense.
Indianapolis Colts @ Baltimore Ravens
DeForest Buckner DL Indianapolis Colts
An obvious no-brainer for leagues requiring a DT, but Buckner has only 9 fantasy points over his last two games, which have frustrated fantasy managers. The Colts DT is one of the best in the game and has had little help this season with how banged up they have been over the first month of the season. The Baltimore Ravens allow 51.3 fantasy points to the DL position per game. Buckner’s 84% snap share is the most of all Colts defensive linemen. There’s a solid chance Buckner has a big game on Monday Night Football against the run-heavy Ravens offense.
That will do it for this week’s games Nerds. I’m looking forward to the games this weekend and hoping to get back on the right track with our recommended plays. If there’s any question, feel free to reach out to me on Twitter, and I will do my best to help point you in the right direction. Keep chasing those dynasty championships as we kick off the second quarter of the season.
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