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On the Border: Matchup Plays for Week 13

Don’t leave it to chance. @Joel_Smyth highlights the matchups to get you the points you need.

Quarterbacks:

Sam Darnold

  • Opponent- Cincinnati Bengals 
  • QB FP Allowed- 30th 
  • Pass DVOA- 31st 

Sam Darnold has played according to his matchup for the past three weeks against poor defenses. Now Darnold has a matchup with the Bengals giving pass defense coming off of 3 straight 20+ point outings. Darnold is not only a worthy starter this week, but next week in the first round of the playoffs vs the Miami Dolphins.  

Andy Dalton

  • Opponent- New York Jets
  • QB FP Allowed- 17th 
  • Pass DVOA- 17th 

Coming back the other way in this Bengals Jets game, Andy Dalton is returning to the Cincinnati lineup and should be considered in yours as well. Although the Jets haven’t been the easiest of passing defenses, the game script is what sticks out for Dalton. The Jets possess a top 2 rushing defense which will force the Bengals to go back to their pass heavy offense with Dalton back in (42 passing attempts per game). Dalton has a big motivation game at home and despite his poor play over the season has only two games under 16 fantasy points. 

Running Backs:

Ronald Jones II 

  • Opponent- Jacksonville Jaguars 
  • RB FP Allowed- 25th 
  • Run DVOA- 32nd 
  • Defensive Line Adjusted Yards- 25th 

Ronald Jones has been given inconsistent volume, but remains the confirmed top option at running back in Tampa Bay’s pass heavy offense. Jacksonville has struggled heavily in run defense setting up Jones for a potential big day. The touchdown opportunities will be given to Jones over Barber in a matchup where the Jaguars have already let up 10 rushing touchdowns on the year. 

Phillip Lindsay

  • Opponent- Los Angeles Chargers
  • RB FP Allowed- 26th 
  • Run DVOA- 27th 
  • Defensive Line Adjusted Yards- 21st 

Last week against Buffalo, Lindsay out carried Royce Freeman 13-2 providing confidence for his future. Now Lindsay gets the Chargers’ below average rushing defense at home in which he exposed for over 24 points in week 5. Back in week 5, the carries were split almost exactly 50/50. Expect Lindsay to continue to get more volume this week and produce against this Chargers’ defense. 

Wide Receivers:

Dede Westbrook/Chris Conley

  • Opponent- Tampa Bay Buccaneers 
  • Cornerback Matchup- Sean Murphy-Bunting/Jamel Dean
  • WR FP Allowed- 32nd   
  • Pass DVOA- 25th 

The Jaguars could very well have three wide outs this week that are able to produce good fantasy numbers versus this Buccaneers secondary. Tampa Bay owns the top running defense in the league which should force the Jaguars away from their running identity resulting in more looks for guys like Conley and Westbrook. Both have seen plenty of targets, but if you need a safe play, go with Westbrook. Foles has a history of targeting slot receivers and Dede benefited from this last Sunday. Westbrook will see plenty of underneath routes this week resulting in a safe floor. If searching for upside, Conley is the man to sway towards as the big play threat could pay off this week when matched up with Jamel Dean. 

Devante Parker 

  • Opponent- Philadelphia Eagles 
  • Cornerback Matchup- Ronald Darby
  • WR FP Allowed- 24th 
  • Pass DVOA- 10th 

Devante Parker is set up to be the focal point of the Dolphins offense this week at home versus Philly. The Eagles stout run defense along with the Dolphins being two score underdogs should result in plenty of work for the Miami passing attack. Philadelphia has been above average against the pass, but have one glaring weakness in Ronald Darby on the outside. Devante Parker has been quietly consistent with targets and points over the second half of the season and is set up for another big day in Miami matching up against Darby. 

Tight Ends:

Gerald Everett  

  • Opponent- Arizona Cardinals
  • TE FP Allowed- 32nd 
  • Pass DVOA-  28th 
  • TE TD Allowed- 32nd 

The Cardinals TE defense is the worst in the NFL and it’s not even close. It seems that no matter who they play, whether its George Kittle or the ghost of OJ Howard, fantasy points come in bunches. Arizona has given up 12 tight end touchdowns which his 4 more than the second worst defense. Jared Goff’s quarterback play scares you, but playing Everett has the opportunity to pay off in a big way. 

Jack Doyle 

  • Opponent- Tennessee Titans 
  • TE FP Allowed- 22nd 
  • Pass DVOA- 23rd 
  • TE TD Allowed- 25th 

Eric Ebron has been sent to the IR. The Colts love using the tight end positon and this injury should vault Doyle into a more consistent TE1. Starting this week against a bad Titans passing defense, Doyle’s numbers should see a rise that will last for the rest of the season. 

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