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Players on the Move – 10/3/22

@thedynastyrobot is here to discuss the swings in values within the dynasty market

To keep our finger on the pulse of the dynasty community, I have included this week’s players with the most significant moves in value determined by consensus rankings. A value-above-replacement “Reserve” system derives player value. The system values a “start 9” 12-team league along with each starter’s backup for a total of the top 216 (18*12) players. See my previous article on how to value players to understand this system further. The below summaries show the new value in dollars, the change in value in dollars, and the percentage change in value for each player. Note that rankings become available each Friday. There is a natural lag in this data which will not include the player’s current week’s performance.

Top 3 Most Notable Increases In Value

Drake London

London has come out of the gate strong after missing most of his final year at USC with a fractured ankle. The wideout is 15th ranked at his position in PPR formats and graded 82.5 by PFF, leading all rookies by both metrics. At his current cost, he is already at the average value peak for his dynasty draft capital. However, maintaining this scoring across a full season would vault his dynasty value. I would pursue him if you like the player, but he is no longer being traded at a discount.

Amon-Ra St. Brown

Moving to another USC alumnus, Amon-Ra is unfortunately set to miss Week 4 with an ankle injury. However, he is the fifth-ranked receiver in PPR format through three weeks. He came out of nowhere in his rookie season to finish 21st. Many wrote him off due to his poor NFL draft capital. He was selected 112th overall in the fourth round. Injuries also may have opened up target opportunities for him in his first year he wouldn’t otherwise have earned.

So while many were high on him coming into this year, there were still many reasons for hesitancy. The Lions selected Jameson Williams 12th overall in the draft. The Lions also acquired Former pro bowl D.J. Chark in free agency. Quintez Cephus is back after missing the majority of 2021, along with Hockenson, who missed the tail-end of the season. None of this to date has put a hamper on his production. When your dad is Mr. Universe, you tend to develop a work ethic that allows you to overcome. With his new, much higher ceiling unveiled, it appears there may still be room to run for Amon-Ra. I would look to acquire shares if you can still get them at a reasonable price.

DeVonta Smith

Smith has had a rather up-and-down season to start. In Week 1, he saw almost every offensive snap and managed to score absolutely zero points on four targets. A.J. Brown stole the show that week with 13 targets. Smith rebounded in Week 2, going 7 for 7 with 80 yards. Then in Week 3, he blew up, going 8 for 12 for 169 yards and a touchdown. It seems crazy that these stats refer to the same player.

The question coming into the year for Smith was whether a potentially misclassified “running QB” in Hurts could support two prime receivers in fantasy. Hurts took away ten touchdowns in 2021 by running them in himself. All pre-season and training camp signs were seemingly high on Hurts’ progression as a passer and his chemistry with Brown. The only question left was whether there was still room for Smith. I would bet that we see similar elements of this throughout the season. The targets appear there for Smith. While an elite season may not be likely, a top 24 finish is definitely in the cards. His value remains low, so those high on him can likely still move to acquire shares. I find him reasonably priced in a similar place as McLaurin, Olave, and Marquise Brown.

Top 3 Most Notable Decreases In Value

Dalvin Cook

At 27 years old, Cook remains a top RB. However, now suffering a dislocated shoulder injury, he will play in a sling. This is not unfamiliar territory for him. He suffered the same fate last year while still managing to put up big fantasy numbers. Cook finished 16th overall in PPR formats at the position while missing three games. This is down from his 2020 and 2019 finishes of RB2 and RB6, respectively. Cook currently sits at RB26 after a very slow start.

Those that have continued to roster him have done so with the expectation of premiere production. The risk of this aging asset, however, grows by the week. In this price range, you can acquire a similarly aged Chubb who currently sits second at the position or try to transition to the aforementioned Amon-Ra. I wouldn’t sell low as it’s possible his value rebounds. It is also unlikely you will be able to easily move either of these players at the moment. However, if an opportunity arises to move him, it may make sense even in a competing window.

Alvin Kamara

Sticking with the aging running back and rhyming theme, we also see Kamara falling in the ranks. After missing the second week of the season with rib injuries, he has fallen to 55th at the position. In his two games, he faced tough defensive matchups and was held to single-digit scoring. Kamara has been a top 10 back in every season, including his rookie season. There is no real reason to believe he can’t continue to at least perform at this level on a game-adjusted basis for the remainder of the season. However, Kamara has gone limited all three days of practice and is now questionable to start in Week 4. This may be a buying opportunity for a competing manager looking for potential top-end talent at a discount. If Kamara’s owner is off to a slow start, you may be able to snag him in a deal.

D.J. Moore

After his rookie year, Moore went on to three straight top 24 seasons. Hampered by poor quarterback play and the inability to score, he has relied on accumulating targets for fantasy relevancy. With Baker at the helm, there was hope, albeit very slight, that his ceiling could rise this year. After three weeks of the season, he finds himself 61st at the position. Week 3 saw a complete meltdown going 1 for 6 for 2 yards and garnering more rushes than receptions. This once-rising star seems to be capped, and his fantasy value reflects this QB-driven glass ceiling. Extended through 2025, Moore is likely locked into poor QB play. At this point, his hopes may be in the hands of an opportunity for Matt Corral or a QB trade. If the move to a Garrett Wilson, Sutton, or Diontae exists, it is likely worth exploring.

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