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Trade Alert: 2020 Draft Picks – Week 13

The 2020 draft is just around the corner, @tristancook_ explains why it might be in your best interest to trade away your early picks!

Welcome! If this is your first time reading this, the ‘Trade Alert’ article is a weekly piece that aims to identify players who are about to have a change in value. Whether that means an increase or decrease doesn’t necessarily matter, because the idea is to identify the player before the change and make the appropriate trade decisions. It’s obviously a task that is easier said than done, but hopefully, this article will help you make a few moves that can improve your roster, regardless of the situation your team is in.

As always, for reference, assume that the values I am providing, unless otherwise noted, are for 12-team, PPR leagues. For example, an “early” 1st round pick refers to 1.01-1.04, a “mid” 1st would be 1.05-1.08, and a “late” 1st is 1.09-1.12. Let’s get to this week’s players.

This week’s article is going to be a slightly different format. Since many leagues have a trade deadline, the next few weeks will be focused less on specific players to trade for, and more so on methods of trading and trade strategies. The first strategy that I am going to promote is related to upcoming rookie picks.

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2020 Draft Picks

This 2020 draft class has long since been touted as one of the deepest and best classes in quite some time. People have been loading up on draft picks in hopes of filling their rosters with high-quality talent. So, it may not be the easiest thing to do, but my first suggestion is to acquire 2020 draft picks.

Buy

The best time to trade for 2020 is right now. The second best time to acquire 2020 picks immediately after you finish reading this article. We all know that the closer we get to a rookie draft, the more expensive a draft pick becomes. So, naturally, the earlier you trade for a pick, the less you’ll have to pay for it. However, it’s probably pretty difficult to trade for any 2020 pick at this point, and it’s almost impossible for you to be able to acquire any 2020 1st round picks. But, if you’re able to get any kind of mid-round pick added as a throw-in to a deal, I’d recommend aggressively pursuing that opportunity.

Sell

The real opportunity to make some trades to help your team is to trade away 2020 picks. Wait, what? Why would you want to trade AWAY 2020 draft picks if they are so valuable? Well, hear me out.

First, I’m not suggesting that you trade away your picks immediately. As I mentioned, draft picks will increase in value as we approach the NFL draft and your respective rookie draft. Second, I’m also not suggesting that you trade away your rookie picks for a junk return. So, what should you be looking to receive in return for your pick? More draft picks. As your league mates get hyped up for the rookie draft, look for openings to trade back in the draft.

This depth of this draft can be a huge advantage. This should be prefaced with the warning that it will depend on the size and settings of your league. But, with the amount of talent that should be in this upcoming rookie class, moving back in the draft and acquiring an extra pick is a sneaky way to give you an advantage.

This strategy can be particularly effective if you have an early draft pick. People are going to be ecstatic about the opportunity of acquiring a top-3 or 4 pick in this class. And I believe that you could turn that into a mid-late 1st, a 2nd, and potentially another pick. I think that while there is some serious talent available at 3 or 4, the drop off to say 7 or 8 is not as drastic as it has been in other years. So, if you’re able to get a marginally less talented player, and at least another good pick, I’d jump all over that opportunity.

Finally, it should be noted that this strategy can be extra effective for SF/2QB and/or TE premium leagues. If we think about it, in any league that is going to push more non-RB/WR players to the top of draft boards, that will push RBs and WRs down and create even more value with later picks.

Overview

As we approach the draft season, everyone will begin drooling over the 2020 rookie class. There will be some outlandish comps made about these college kids. Some of them will end up being amazing in the NFL, but my suggestion is to ‘zag’ when everyone else ‘zigs’. Instead of trying to move up a draft board to get the top-end talent, move back and bolster your chances at getting multiple impact players.

Will it be difficult to stomach selling the opportunity to draft Jeudy, Taylor, or Swift? Yes, absolutely. However, being able to walk away from the 2020 draft with multiple players that can turn your team into a contender for years to come.

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