Welcome! If this is your first time reading this, the ‘Trade Alert’ article is a weekly piece that aims to identify players who are about to have a change in value. Whether that means an increase or decrease doesn’t necessarily matter, because the idea is to identify the player before the change and make the appropriate trade decisions. It’s obviously a task that is easier said than done, but hopefully this article will help you make a few moves that can improve your roster, regardless of the situation your team is in.
As always, for reference, assume that the values I am providing, unless otherwise noted, are for 12-team, PPR leagues. For example, an “early” 1st round pick refers to 1.01-1.04, a “mid” 1st would be 1.05-1.08, and a “late” 1st is 1.09-1.12. Let’s get to this week’s players.
This week’s article is going to be a bit of a different format. Over the past several weeks, I have recommended many different players to buy or sell. So, for this week, we will take a look back at the players that have been previously mentioned. As part of the evaluation process, I will try to determine how their respective values have changed since the week in which they were highlighted. Here we go.
Kerryon Johnson – Buy (Week 2)
The first player that I recommended was Kerryon Johnson, as a buy. While it is fair to say that KJ hasn’t lived up to his preseason hype, his value has likely remained very similar to where it was at the beginning of the season. If you were able to buy Johnson early on in the season, you’ve certainly been hurt by his injury, but I am sticking by my suggestion of buying. I think that he has all the tools you look for in a 2019 workhorse back, and I want that type of player on my roster.
Chris Carson – Buy (Week 2)
Chris Carson was the next name that I recommended. Heading into this season most of the dynasty community and fantasy industry as a whole, was expecting to see Rashaad Penny take over the lead back role in Seattle. Since a slightly slow start to the season, the price to acquire Carson has risen dramatically. I hope you were able to buy early, because the window to buy-low has closed.
Mike Evans – Buy (Week 3)
After the blazing start to 2019 by Chris Godwin, there were many people who were ready to knock Mike Evans down from his perch as Tampa’s top WR, and some people were even questioning if Evans could be trusted as a no-brainer start. In response to critics, Evans has posted monster numbers starting in week 3, and is now 2nd in the NFL in receiving yards. If you were able to cash in on the Mike Evans panic, you’re likely very pleased with your acquisition.
Emmanuel Sanders – Buy/Sell (Week 3)
To analyze the Emmanuel Sanders recommendation, it will depend if you were a buyer or seller on him. After the first two weeks, it looked as if Emmanuel Sanders was set to have a major role in the Joe Flacco-led Broncos offense. Times certainly have changed as Flacco is now on IR and Sanders is a member of the 49ers.
If you were able to sell Sanders, you were probably very happy after Sanders’ production dramatically slowed down after the first two weeks. However, after the trade to San Francisco, if you bought Sanders, you are feeling much more optimistic about this rest-of-season outlook. I would say that his value has decreased somewhat, but has started to rebound.
Joe Mixon – Buy (Week 4)
Joe Mixon was one of my buys heading into week 4 of the season. This is probably my worst recommendation to date. After their strong 1st half performance against the Seahawks in week 1, the Bengals as a whole have been a dumpster fire. Consequently, Mixon has also looked bad.
However, in my defense, I noted that there would likely be points during the season where Mixon’s value dipped, and you could potentially acquire him for cheaper. What I did not expect was a QB change for the Bengals and a team that looks like the odds on favorite to get the 1st overall pick in 2020. I still think better days are ahead for Joe Mixon, so I’d inquire about his availability, especially if his current owner is vying for a playoff spot.
Mark Ingram II – Buy/Sell (Week 4)
Similarly to Emmanuel Sanders, I had Mark Ingram II as both a buy and sell. Conversely to Sanders, Ingram has looked good most all of 2019. He was/is the perfect player to sell in a rebuild and to buy as a contender. His value will slowly start to decrease as time passes, but he’s shown us that he will be a value in this Baltimore offense.
JuJu Smith-Schuster – Buy (Week 5)
Next, I had JuJu Smith-Schuster as a buy. I mentioned that it would likely be very difficult to buy JuJu, but it was the first opportunity to buy-low on him since he entered the league. He’s remained an inconsistent option at WR without Big Ben, but I’m not concerned. If you’re able to buy JuJu, I’d absolutely do so. He’s extremely young, and I’d be thrilled to get him on my team.
Stefon Diggs – Buy (Week 5)
The last name that I’ll analyze is Stefon Diggs. When I recommended buying shares, we were in the midst of chaos. Kirk Cousins was issuing public apologies and Stefon Diggs was doing everything but formally requesting a trade. Since then, Diggs has set the NFL on fire. If you were able to buy Diggs during all the chaos, you have to be thrilled with what you’ve received.
I think there are two lessons to learn from these trade recommendations. The first is probably something that relatively common knowledge. There is some risk when you’re trading for veteran players as a contender. The second is that in general, trade for underperforming proven commodities. When there is a player that is not living up to their hype, if you’re able to buy low, you’ll probably end up being happy you did so.
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