We are back for another season of ‘Trade Alert’! If this is your first time reading this, the ‘Trade Alert’ article is a weekly piece that aims to identify players who are about to have a change in value. Whether that means an increase or decrease doesn’t necessarily matter, because the idea is to identify the player before the change and make the appropriate trade decisions. It’s obviously a task that is easier said than done, but hopefully, this article will help you make a few moves that can improve your roster, regardless of your team’s situation.
As always, for reference, assume that the values I am providing, unless otherwise noted, are for 12-team, PPR leagues. For example, an “early” 1st round pick refers to 1.01-1.04, a “mid” 1st would be 1.05-1.08, and a “late” 1st is 1.09-1.12. Let’s get to this week’s players.
This week’s article focuses on two of the more polarizing young WRs in the NFL. One that I have been a fan of for a long time, and one where I have seen the error of my ways and have come around to support. Finally, we’ll look at Raiders TE Darren Waller and what I recommend to do with him. Let’s get to it!
DK Metcalf – Acquire
The first player I am looking to acquire this week is none other than the Instagram model himself, DK Metcalf. I can’t say I’m the kind of person that is happy to admit being wrong, but when I’m wrong, I’m wrong. And, I was wrong about DK Metcalf.
The Seahawks have done what many teams fail to do with their supremely gifted athletes who have yet to refine their skill sets. They put him in a position to succeed by utilizing what he does best. We all know that DK is big and fast, and instead of forcing him into a role that wasn’t suited for his skill set, they have continually given him opportunities to win using his best assets.
Now, this past week we saw DK face off against the best corner in the league, Stephon Gilmore, and he posted 4/92/1 on 6 targets. I think it’s safe to say DK has proven that he can do more than go deep. I certainly underestimated his ability, but, instead of refusing to be wrong, I’m now trying to acquire him wherever I can, before it’s too late.
So, what’s the price that I’d be willing to pay? I think his value in terms of draft picks is roughly two mid-1sts. But, I’m trying to avoid paying that price if I can. Ideally, what I would do is something like this:
This way, you’re not giving up multiple 1st round picks. And, if your team is on the bubble of contention, DK should help push you over the top more than an unproven rookie WR. The specifics will change based on your roster, but I think this type of offer could get the deal done.
LaViska Shenault Jr. – Acquire
My next target is Jacksonville Jaguars rookie LaViska Shenault Jr. He is a rather polarizing player for many people in the dynasty community, but I am absolutely a believer. I know I might be on a bit of an island here on the Dynasty Nerds team, but I am ok with that.
Through the first two weeks of the season, LaViska has been heavily involved in the Jags offense. They have found ways to manufacture touches for him in a variety of ways. I fully anticipate his involvement to increase as Shenault gets fully accustomed to the NFL.
At the time of writing this, the Jags have yet to play their Thursday Night Football game, but barring an explosion by Shenault, his value should remain relatively stagnant through this week. Having said that, I am trying to acquire him now before his value increases as the season progresses.
I think the current value is between a late 1st and an early 2nd. I don’t think I’d be willing to go quite to a 1st, but I’d be willing to pay an early 2nd round pick to get Shenault. You might be able to get it done for that price, but if not, I’d be willing to throw in a late-round pick because I think LaViska will pay off.
Darren Waller – Both
My final player for this week is Darren Waller. After struggling with addiction and off the field issues, he is in the midst of a career resurrection with the Raiders. I can make an argument for both trading away or trying to acquire Darren Waller. So, let’s get to the reasons why you want to acquire him first.
If you are a contending team, but in need of a TE, Darren Waller is a perfect answer. He is currently seeing an absurd 35.3% target share through the first two weeks. And, while I don’t think he will keep up quite that level of targets, I expect Waller to be the top targeted pass catcher on the Raiders. As a focal point of the Las Vegas offense, Waller is on his way to potentially a top 5 TE finish in 2020.
So, if he is such a heavily targeted and highly productive player, why would I be making a case to trade him away? Well, it’s pretty simple. If your team is rebuilding, you want to capitalize on short term value while you’re able. At 28, Darren Waller isn’t exactly the youngest of TEs, so while he is useful to have on your roster, he may be more valuable as an asset to trade away to a contender.
Well, if we have established that Waller can be both someone to trade away or try to acquire, the question now becomes, at what price. Obviously, if you’re a team with Waller and looking to move him, you want to get as much in return as possible. Conversely, if you are a team looking to add Waller, you want to spend as little as possible.
So, as someone trying to acquire him, I’d be willing to give a younger, less proven TE like TJ Hockenson and what I hope to be a late 2nd for Waller. If I already had Waller and were looking to trade him away as a rebuilding team, I’d be looking to get something more like Hockenson and a late 1st.
That’s it for this week’s ‘Trade Alert’ article. Come back next week to look at some players we are looking to trade for or deal away. If you have any suggestions or feel like talking dynasty, feel free to reach out to me on Twitter (@tristancook_). I am always open to hearing other people’s opinions on dynasty values.
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