Welcome! If this is your first time reading this, the ‘Trade Alert’ article is a weekly piece that aims to identify players who are about to have a change in value. Whether that means an increase or decrease doesn’t necessarily matter, because the idea is to identify the player before the change and make the appropriate trade decisions. It’s obviously a task that is easier said than done, but hopefully, this article will help you make a few moves that can improve your roster, regardless of the situation your team is in.
As always, for reference, assume that the values I am providing, unless otherwise noted, are for 12-team, PPR leagues. For example, an “early” 1st round pick refers to 1.01-1.04, a “mid” 1st would be 1.05-1.08, and a “late” 1st is 1.09-1.12. Let’s get to this week’s players.
If you missed last week’s article, it highlighted a handful of QBs to buy or sell in SF or 2QB leagues. This week’s article is going to highlight a few players that I am looking to buy, for a variety of reasons. So, let’s get to it.
Mike Williams – Buy
The first player that I am looking to add to my roster is Mike Williams. Some of the dynasty community was ready to anoint Williams as the new top WR for the Chargers, but that has yet to come to fruition. Instead, we have seen that the passing game still flows through Keenan Allen, and until he is out of the picture, Williams will have a secondary role. Williams came into 2019 with enough hype that he was almost destined to disappoint.
I was certainly lower on him coming into 2019 than many others were, but after his disappointing start to the season, I think there may be an opportunity to buy. Williams is currently WR55 on the year and has undoubtedly disappointed his fantasy owners who expected more from him. While it is unlikely that an owner is going to give up easily on him, his value has certainly come down since the beginning of the season.
So, if he’s underperformed and clearly the second fiddle to KA13, then why am I suggesting trying to trade for him? Well, the answer is two-fold. First, his production numbers are going to improve. He’s currently 6th in the NFL in air yards, but 30th in receiving yards. He should start to see that disparity decrease in the coming weeks. He also has yet to score a touchdown, which is most certainly going to change in the near future. The second reason you should try to acquire him is that the things we expected in the offseason remain true. He’s seen a bigger role after the departure of Tyrell Williams and he remains a red zone threat. He’s simply just not yet converting on his opportunities. Once that starts to happen, your window to acquire him will be gone.
Depending on the situation of the owner in your league, the price for Williams is likely to somewhat fluctuate. But, to get a starting point, I’d be willing to give up anything short of an early 1st round pick in 2020 to get him. I think that it’s certainly possible to get him at that price. And, if the owner is a contending team that needs WR production, you might be able to take advantage of that and get him cheaper.
John Brown – Buy
The next player on my list is John ‘Smokey’ Brown. If you’ve followed along at all this year, you’ll know that I’m a big fan of his, and have been pleasantly surprised by his production. I expected to see John Brown have games where he could help you win your week, but what I didn’t think I’d see is the consistency with which he has produced.
On the season, Brown’s worst performance was week 3 where he put up 4/51/0 on only 5 targets. He’s averaging roughly 7.5 targets, 5.5 receptions, and 69 yards per game. He’s only scored 2 touchdowns on the season yet is consistently producing double-digit fantasy numbers. He’s currently sitting as the WR21 on the season and has only had one “big” game this season. Brown is exactly the type of player that you want on your roster if you’re looking to make a championship push this year.
His current price is a mid-to-late 2nd round rookie pick. I’d like to pay less than that if possible, but if I’m a contender in need of a solid WR3 or FLEX option, I’d be willing to spend that on John Brown. However, I think it’s possible to get him cheaper than that.
James White – Buy
The final name I will suggest is James White. He is similarly appealing to John Brown in that he is also a low-cost consistent fantasy producer. He is averaging 6 receptions and over 40 yards per game. In today’s RB landscape, it nearly impossible to find someone that will average 10 points per game for a reasonable price, yet I believe that White fits the bill.
He’s the perfect fix to a shaky RB2 spot to an otherwise strong team. His price will probably be in the vicinity of a late 2nd round pick, which I think is fair. But, depending on the team that currently has him on its roster, could be negotiated down. You can try to use the return of Rex Burkhead and the anticipated debut of N’Keal Harry to sway the owner into selling “before he loses value”, but I am not concerned. Tom Brady and the Patriots offense have counted on him as an integral part of its offense, and I don’t see that changing.
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