Alright dynasty nerds we are here the end of the regular season. It’s been a fun ride and as some of us are looking ahead to the money weeks others should already be doing their rookie scouting. This has been a blast covering every week for you guys and although I will still be writing articles covering next week it’s sad that the season is already over pretty much. I’ll do a breakdown of the playoff weeks in one final piece after the dynasty playoffs are over and then it’s right onto rookie scouting for you guys. Alright let’s look back to the week that was for some takeaways.
- Kamara Effect
I mean it’s only right that we start of this week with the Kamara love that is all over the dynasty community right now. Kamara has been an absolute beast since the Peterson trade both him and Mark Ingram actually. Kamara looks all but certain to be named offensive rookie of the year and when you see what he’s doing every week there’s absolutely no debate on this. Kamara is putting up just insane numbers on limited touches and although I along with others most likely feel it’s unsustainable we play a game that has a “what have you done for me lately” narrative and Kamara is flat out delivering. The per touch basis number Kamara is putting up has him in discussion for a top12 startup pick by some analysts already in mock drafts. If you take Kamara’ receiving stats alone and charted him with WRs this season so far he would rank as the WR31. That stat is pretty crazy considering Amari Cooper currently sits as the WR29 and Sammy Watkins the WR40 in PPR. Now onto the important stuff Kamara is a RB and let’s talk about that production. Kamara has been a top 12 RB every week since week seven with an average of RB5 during that span. A streak of six straight top 12 RB performances has Kamara tied with only Lev Bell for the most this season consecutively. While on this hot streak Kamara has also finished as a top 5 RB in four consecutive weeks with a monster game last week against the Rams. This pace Kamara is on is incredible to say the least he is projected currently to finish the season with 314.8 PPR points in comparison Zeke’s amazing rookie season last year he finished with 325.4 PPR points. There’s no need for me to point out the difference in cost of the two during the rookie draft. There’s no question Kamara has become one of the most difficult players to acquire in dynasty leagues with this historic pace he’s on and for good reason his worst finish this season is RB37 and that was while A.P was still in New Orleans. I’ve been playing this game for a long time and this Kamara production is making me think of previous cases of RBs producing so much on limited touches but for the here and now this guy is a legit dynasty asset. I’m not on board at all with him being a top 12 dynasty pick but everybody pays this game so differently and it’s hard to argue with someone making this case. Sean Payton and Kamara seem like a perfect match going forward this could be something special for years to come in New Orleans.
- The Return Of The WR3
One of my favorite strategies in dynasty every offseason is to break down the WR3. Meaning the WRs in the 25-36 range that every season may not be the most attractive to dynasty owners but they sure help you win leagues. There are five WR I broke down believed to be WR3’s at the beginning of the season and where they stand now and how they have been producing.
Jamison Crowder – Crowder currently sits as the WR39 in PPR leagues it’s been a rough season for him. Over the last month he has averaged 18.6 PPR fantasy points per game that ranks third best behind only Antonio Brown and Nuk Hopkins. The WR situation in Washington has become more clear recently. Crowder looks poised to be a league winner this season producing great numbers for those dynasty owners who have stuck with him through a tough season.
Cooper Kupp – Kupp is the only rookie on this list and for good reason he has had a solid connection with Jared Goff all season wrong. Kupp is the WR30 currently in PPR leagues. Kupp had a monster week 12 and with Robert Woods out he saw 26% of the targets and that’s with Sammy Watkins playing a big role in the offense. Kupp should continue to put up solid numbers in the playoffs with Woods projected to be out for a few weeks. Kupp is less than 9 points away from being a WR2 on the season which is very likely to happen before the season ends.
Marvin Jones – Jones is a crazy story because he’s the only one on this list who is currently a WR1 ranking as the WR10 after his two touchdown performance against the Vikings last week. Jones was forgotten in most dynasty leagues after his struggles to end the season. I was able to add Jones in a few leagues for late draft picks and in some leagues even swapped IDPs for him. Jones has delivered this season with 700+ yards and 8 touchdowns already. Jones has a very good chance to finish the season as a top 12 WR which would be huge for his value entering next season.
Mohamed Sanu – Now we are into the actual WR3’s that are producing as exactly that. Sanu coming in as the WR33 in PPR leagues with 45 receptions and 4 touchdowns this season. Sanu has been consistent since the Buffalo game in week four he has had at least three receptions in every game since and scored three touchdowns in that span. While Sanu will never wow you with his stats at season’s end he helps you with depth. Solid contributor on any contending dynasty roster.
Nelson Agholor – Another WR many left for dead after last season with the additions of Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith in free agency this year very few dynasty owners had any hope. Agholor has shined with the rise of Carson Wentz for the Eagles. WR34 is where Agholor sits heading into week thirteen and although the Eagles offense has been very tough to figure out who will go off every week one thing is fairly constant and that is receiving touchdowns. Three Eagles have 6+ touchdowns and Agholor ranks 3rd on the Eagles in receptions, targets and touchdowns. This guy has been the definition of a WR3 this year and has given new life to many dynasty owners.
- Fantasy Playoff Schedules
With this being our last week of the dynasty regular season coming up I thought I’d share some thoughts on the playoff schedules coming up. This is a common redraft strategy I use when I can but it can help in deep roster dynasty leagues as well. Starting off with a point I’ve driven home in my redraft articles all year long and in a few of my dynasty pieces as well the Jaguars pass defense is death to fantasy WRs. PFF recently posted the five CBs not to give up a touchdown this season and three of the five play for Jacksonville. QB rating when throwing at Ramsey and Bouye this season is 37.14. If you can avoid it do not start WRs against the Jags in the playoffs you’re asking for trouble. The Atlanta offense has been hit and miss this year and the playoff schedule doesn’t look very promising to lead you to a dynasty championship. If we count this week Ryan and Julio will see Minnesota, Carolina, an easy matchup with the Bucs again and the Saints twice. We all know how good Xavier Rhodes is at shadowing top tier WRs and Saints rookie Marshon Lattimore has been one of PFF’s highest graded CBs all season long. This season might not be the year to rely on the usually high scoring Washington pass game to win you a championship. Although I do believe Jamison Crowder could be a monster from the slot to finish the season the matchups are not great on paper. Washington will see the Chargers, Cardinals and Broncos to finish the season. Not ideal for Cousins or the pass game at least on paper. Alright that’s enough negative you guys ready for some promising stuff? The average Bills offense sees the Colts, Patriots and Dolphins in the fantasy playoffs. I think we can expect above average production for Tyrod, McCoy and Charles Clay when we need it most. The Rams in the playoffs see three potential shootouts with Philly, Seattle and the Titans in the fantasy playoffs. There’s nothing a dynasty owner wants more than a high scoring game in the fantasy playoffs. Last piece of good news I have is the Steelers. Pittsburgh will see the PAtriots and Texans the last two games. Each game has shootout potential for one of the NFL’s most talented offenses.
- RB Report
Back again for another installment of the RB report. Four rookie RBs continue to stay in the top 12 with only one regular season game left for fantasy purposes. Todd Gurley and Lev Bell have just been head and shoulders above the rest this season and are locked into a close battle to see who takes home the overall RB1 crown in dynasty this year. I touched heavily on Kamara and how special he has been on the flipside we have seen the definition of a rookie wall for Kareem Hunt. Hunt hasn’t scored a touchdown since week three and has been extremely disappointing during the back half of this season. As good as Melvin Gordon has been this season he has seen a big cut in playing time with the emergence of Austin Ekeler. Ekeler who has barely seen the field in the first half of the season has moved all the way up to RB30 with his play the past few weeks. This year has been pretty crazy to follow the RB position of the top 30 RBs heading into week thirteen we have two RBs each from the Chargers, Falcons, Bears, Patriots, Browns and Saints. I don’t recall anything like this for a season in a long time but I haven’t really followed RB finishes in the past like I have this year. Some good news going forward for Carlos Hyde who has set career highs in receptions and targets this season with Kyle Shanahan. If he stays in SF this could be a boost for his value assuming the 49ers don’t add another quality back. We potentially will get to see Perine, Kenyan Drake and Wayne Gallman be relied on heavily in the final games of the season for their respective teams to either help or hurt their values going into the 2018 season.
- Dynasty Nuggets
Found a few interesting dynasty nuggets I wanted to leave you guys with this week.
Nuk Hopkins – Has had 70 yards and or a TD in every game this season. Only accomplished this in half of his games last season. He’s matchup proof at this point.
DeShone Kizer – You all know by now he was my QB1 this year and I took criticism for it. You will all have to agree his offensive weapons are poor to say the least but regardless in his rookie season he has five QB1 games. Only eight QBs have more than him. Coleman and Gordon the final weeks of the season will show if Kizer is the real deal and can be the Browns QB heading into 2018.
Bell and Kamara – Only RBs to have put together five consecutive RB1 weeks. Consistency is key at the RB position being able to plug and play RBs give you a clear advantage in dynasty leagues.
Dak Prescott – Dak was on everybody’s list of regression candidates for the 2017 season. We all looked wrong as Dak was a QB1 for a majority of the season. However since the Zeke suspension Dak hasn’t finished as a QB1 in any game and has failed to throw a touchdown. The turnovers are piling up and the Dallas offense is being exposed.
Bad QB Play – It’s an obvious point in dynasty leagues that you just don’t want WR on bad offenses but there are cases where the talent shines through even in bad situations that isn’t the case here. Jordy Nelson has seen a horrible drop off since the Rodgers injury. Post Rodgers injury Jordy has slightly over 100 yards total and is only seeing 17% of targets in the Packers offense. The Denver QB carousel or nightmare whatever you choose to call it has hurt many dynasty teams. Reliable PPR monsters DMT and Manny Sanders have been non factors seemingly all season long. Three different QBs already heading into the fantasy playoffs after this week and DMT is the WR20 while Sanders is WR44. This capped off in week twelve with DMT finishing fifth on the Broncos in receiving yards while Sanders was 7th. Two constant fantasy starters have been downgraded to matchup streaming WRs at best.
Okay Nerds that’s it for this week. I’m getting excited for the dynasty playoffs looking to add a championship but also focused heavily on the rookie scouting. This is a great game and we all love that it’s 365 days a year. I’ll touch back with you after this week for the final regular season W.W.L. I want to wish a special good luck if you have to win and get in this week.