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Week 2 – What we Learned

Alright Nerds we are back again for a second edition of what we learned from week 2 and some dynasty tips to help you through the season. There are many types of analysts when it comes to football some guys are box score watchers and some are film or game watchers weather it be NFL redzone or game pass. I think this is something as a reader and dynasty owner you would want to know before taking any advice from an analyst or writer. I am a NFL Sunday Ticket subscriber and have been since it was offered so what you’re getting from me is instant analysis from someone who watches every game on Sundays in real time. Do I get to watch every snap of every game? No unfortunately I don’t own that many TV’s but you are getting breakdown and takeaways from someone who is focused on football from 1pm until the SNF game ends. Alright time to get into this week 2 breakdown and how it relates to your dynasty teams.




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  • Zero RB dominates again

 Zero RB strategists are riding high through two weeks of the NFL season. As a believer in zero RB theory myself I have benefited from this on many dynasty teams to start this season. We’ll start with the most surprising stat through 8 quarters of an NFL season Chris Thompson is currently the PPR RB4. Yeah this although not sustainable is crazy in itself and Thompson could be see the value most believed in with Danny Woodhead in years past. Woodhead although he has never been the feature back has finished as an RB1 in PPR leagues. Through two weeks Chris Thompson, Buck Allen, and James White are all outscoring Le’Veon Bell and Zeke Elliott as well as injured David Johnson. The before mentioned were all borderline free in dynasty this offseason. Again this production might not be sustainable for a full season but chances are if you own one of them they are not one of the top RBs on your roster and you can maximize their current value and trade them for future capital.

 

  • Top ADP Teams 0-2

 This point was brought up by one of my favorite follows @DLF_IzzyE on twitter. I decided to run with it because I had the same takeaway watching the first two weeks of the season. We can start with QBs Alex Smith, Carson Wentz and Trevor Siemian are the top three QBs. Based on the dynasty rankings at DynastyNerds.com only Derek Carr holds his value at QB6 while the top 5 QBs have all underperformed through the first two weeks minus Andrew Luck who is hurt.

For the first two weeks I have beat the top tier RBs underperforming point to death but I’ll dig slightly deeper. Melvin Gordon, Devonta Freeman and Todd Gurley who are ranked 4,5 and 6 respectively are the only top tier RBs holding value. Gordon has been saved by touchdowns in each of his first two games which is a trend I wouldn’t bank on continuing. We are looking at this from season to season and dynasty rankings are very youth dominated and even though there are four rookie backs ranked in the top 12 there is nobody that saw three of them as RB1’s through two weeks. Hunt, Cohen and Fournette all come in inside the top 12 RBs as only Zeke Elliott comes in as a RB2 from the top tier RB talent in dynasty leagues.

Wide Receiver is the position we are used to seeing the most stability from in dynasty. There is a reason why WR is king in most PPR leagues. However this year it has not been the greatest start of the top 12 WRs only Antonio Brown and DeAndre Hopkins are currently WR1’s through the first two games of the season. Take this for what it is but Mike Evans has only played one game due to the hurricane and OBJ has played as mostly a decoy in week 2 nursing a bad ankle injury suffered in preseason. Other than Nuk and AB none of the top 12 WRs currently sit higher than WR17 in PPR through the first two weeks of the season.

Well the tight end position for years has been Gronk and everyone else. In recent years Kelce, Reed, Graham and Olsen have closed the gap some with their consistency but outside of that you are potentially just hoping someone breaks out. Through the first two weeks TE has just been a mess, Kelce is the TE2 and Grok with a massive game on sunday ranks as the TE5. The rest of the top tier leaves a lot to be desired Reed ranks as TE13, Eifert TE26, Jimmy Graham as the TE36 and Greg Olsen effectively ending his fantasy season in week 2 with a broken foot. Jason Witten is the TE, leads the NFL in catches and Jesse James, Coby Fleener and Austin Hooper are all TE1’s after week 2. TE will continue to be a unpredictable position to gauge in dynasty forever it seems.

 

  • Time To Panic

 I would never preach this as an experienced dynasty owner but I think realism may have to set in sooner than later for some owners. Most of the experienced owners believe to have a true dynasty you need a mix of old veteran producers to go along with your young upside rookies to remain a contender. Now for years this has been true and I myself have built many teams that have won championships this exact way. I wouldn’t normally panic but through week 2 of this season I think you might push that button and here’s why. Larry Fitzgerald, Brandon Marshall and recently Jordy Nelson are all WRs over 30 who could be relied on for elite fantasy production for years there comes a time in dynasty you have to decide whether to sell at the highest point for an old veteran WR or ride them out until they retire. I don’t have a problem riding them out until you realize how many wins they cost you because you are starting a declining player. Currently Fitz sits at WR38 on a mess of an offense and is being outscored by J.J. Nelson. The Brandon Marshall experience in NY seems like a flop already as he currently ranks as WR87 and is being outscored by just about every pass catcher on his team and that’s without OBJ even playing much through the first two weeks. Jordy Nelson coming off a WR1 season ranks as WR30 and is being outscored by both Davante Adams and Randall Cobb. The sell window is just about closed but if you’re rostering these players it’s not a bad idea after one or two games bounce back games to try and get out for what you can.

On the same note let’s quickly touch on RB. DeMarco Murray, Marshawn Lynch and the ageless wonder Frank Gore seemed to be staples as RB1’s coming into this season. All play on good offenses with ability to close out games by rushing the football. With the exception of the Colts who lost Andrew Luck who is pretty much their entire offense. Murray who is now out a few weeks ranks as the RB46, Lynch RB23 and Gore as RB32 and the upside doesn’t seem to be there. Many were high on Lynch and his return especially with an elite offense in Oakland but as some feared he seems to be brought in to fill the Latavius Murray role. Early down and redzone work but losing snaps to both Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington I’m not sure he can finish the season as a RB1. Most saw this fall coming for Murray with his total touches back to his time in Dallas eventually he would wear down. It doesn’t help his value that Derrick Henry is very good and might just fit the Titans offense better going forward. Henry will put up good numbers while Murray is hurt and I don’t see him getting that job back. At this point if you own Gore it most likely didn’t cost you much and I’m perfectly fine riding him out. Marlon Mack and Robert Turbin cut into his playing time going forward but Gore should still see value and can produce some RB1 weeks. If there’s a buyer on Murray or Lynch I think it’s time to consider the move if you can get value back.

 

 

Dynasty Stashes

  •  Nick Vannett- After Graham’ injury in week 2 he seemed to be a decoy. Vanett fits the role in a bad Seattle offense could see volume in targets in Graham misses time. Plus he’s free.
  • Corey Clement- Nothing here other than the Eagles backfield is a mess. Clement could be something if given the opportunity. Chances are he’s on someone’s taxi squad but keep an eye on him or aggressively pursue him now in hopes he sees some playing time this year.
  • Amara Darboh- Big fan of his at Michigan. Darboh has already seen some quality crunchtime targets through two weeks and could beat out Paul Richardson or Tyler Lockett for targets in the Seahawks unexplosive offense.
  • Alex Collins- Buck Allen has out snapped Terrance West again this week. West was cut from the Browns and just isn’t anything special. Collins is an angry runner with good vision. Ravens may look to mix in Collins more if West continues to struggle. Very cheap in most dynasty formats.

 

Buy Low

  • Russell Wilson- Everything about the Seahawks offense is bad right now but Wilson has the rushing upside and can turn it on at anytime and produce high TD volume if they can figure out how to give him protection
  • Devin Funchess – I preached this in the offseason but this just comes at a perfect time. With Olsen out for most of the fantasy season Funchess could see an uptick in targets. Funchess was a hybrid TE/WR at Michigan. Dickson should man the TE position but the Olsen target share could swing in favor of Funchess with Benjamin drawing more double coverage week to week.
  • Joe Mixon- He’s a rookie and his price will still be pretty high but if you believe now is the time. The Bengals haven’t scored a touchdown this season and Mixon is being out snapped by Gio and Hill. Mixon looks like the best RB when you’re watching the game it’s only a matter of time with a new O.C that he gets the touches and the stats start showing up.




Sell High

  •   Lamar Miller- Just get out while you can. Foreman will take this job maybe not this year but sooner than later. Miller went from 81% of the backfield touches in week 1 down to 74% in week 2. I can see this being 60/40 split before we know it. Deal Miller while others still believe in his RB1 upside.
  • Coby Fleener – Willie Snead comes back after this week and Fleener won’t sustain value. Fleener currently is a TE1 on the heels of back to back weeks with a TD. The Saints offense has been poor to their standards to start the season getting Snead as well as Michael Thomas more involved will fade any value Fleener has left.
  • Tarik Cohen – Cohen is currently a RB1 playing in a terrible offense with a QB who is a checkdown king if you can look at this as dynasty get out while you can. Just traded Cohen who was a 4th round rookie pick in most leagues for a 2018 first. That people is how you maximize value in dynasty leagues.

 

Alright guys week 2 in the books. I’m looking forward to the games this week and weekend and doing another dynasty breakdown and recap next week. As always hit me up on twitter for questions or criticism @Glosser13. Dynasty is 24/7 so keep working at building those championship rosters. Use the market to your advantage and make those tough decisions before it’s too late.

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About JonGlosser

Buffalo N.Y native, Die hard Syracuse basketball fan. Fell in love with football at a young age and can't keep my opinions to myself, so I decided to write about them. Enjoy