We look back at another week in what was in dynasty fantasy football. Putting together different talking points have become a chore some weeks but also I would prefer not giving you guys the same takeaways from every week. I have a few articles lined up that discuss two of these topics in more detail just struggling to find the time to write them currently. I’ll summarize those topics to the best of my ability. Hope you’re ready for the first quarter of the NFL season to conclude and hoping your dynasty teams are in great shape.
- The Zero RB/Bell Cow Report
Forgive me I just can’t help but starting every article off with this report. We’ll start with the craziest stat I found over the weekend and that’s Christian McCaffrey who is currently the RB6 in PPR without scoring a single touchdown this season. McCaffrey’s dynasty value continues to skyrocket alongside fellow 2017 rookie Alvin Kamara. Kamara who is just defying all the odds for dynasty RBs continues his streak from last season as he has now been the overall RB1 in PPR in six of his last eleven games. If that wasn’t crazy enough he has also been a top 12 RB in twelve of his last thirteen games with the lone outlier being the Atlanta game in the fantasy playoffs where he was concussed in the opening quarter forcing him to miss the rest of the game. Kamara and CMC rank 1st and 3rd respectively in yards per carry average since week nine of the 2017 season. I could sit down and write a book about the impact these two have had on dynasty leagues in their first nineteen career games but we’ll move on. The NFL leader in teams total backfield touches is no surprise, Zeke Elliott, the cause for concern is the Dallas passing game as we almost all knew it would be. Zeke currently sits as the RB8 the positive news is it’s going to get better starting off this week when he plays the Lions at home who have given up the most rush yards in the NFL. These next two guys I cover are really in bad situations that just have to get better first up is 2016 hero David Johnson. DJ through three weeks is the RB19 in dynasty which is pretty positive considering the factors. The Arizona Cardinals are running an average of 47.33 plays per game and averaging only 16 rushing attempts per game which should surprise nobody is by far the worst in the NFL. Johnson has inexcusably lost snaps to Chase Edmonds through the first three games and I don’t need to reiterate how terrible of an offensive mind Mike McCoy is. Rookie Josh Rosen takes over this week and it seems like common sense the Cardinals will rely more on the running game with a rookie QB. DJ is a potential buy low in dynasty right now it’s worth throwing some offers together. So we’re back to Kareem Hunt and I know I told you not to worry but maybe start to get a little worried. The Chiefs offense is averaging almost 40 points per game and somehow Hunt is sitting at the RB20 spot in dynasty. Fair to assume we, for the most part, don’t believe Mahomes will keep up this pace but even during this historic run it’s a major concern how little Hunt is being used in the pass game. Hunt has seen three targets in 2018 yes you read that correct THREE. Perhaps more concerning than that stat is his lack of usage on third down where he has only played 9 of 26 snaps. In 2018 Kareem Hunt caught 53 passes he would need to average four catches a game for the remaining 13 games on the Chiefs schedule to hit that total this year. Now Hunt is seeing enough work on the ground to keep him relevant but his lack of use in the pass game is keeping him out of the RB1 conversation in the first three weeks. Hunt is a great talent and while he is scoring touchdowns I fear if this usage keeps up and the touchdowns go away he could fail to finish as a top 12 RB this season which would be a major disappointment to dynasty owners. The last piece of info is some RBBC numbers. Now, these are offenses dynasty owners for good reason tend to avoid and this strategy is totally reasonable. The fact remains though not everyone is going to have a workhorse back on their roster so these players do hold dynasty value. Two teams I cover this week are the Baltimore Ravens who have nearly split RB carries even through the first three weeks. Alex Collins has seen 34%,49% and 49% snap rate in the first three weeks while scoring two touchdowns and hauling in seven receptions. Buck Allen has seen snap rates of 38%,49% and 54% with four total touchdowns and thirteen receptions. Snap rates were provided by Graham Barfield a great follow on twitter for anyone who is into those numbers he does a great job. Buck Allen currently the RB11 and Collins the RB22 are separated by roughly twelve fantasy points. This Ravens offense isn’t a bad one to use for RBBC going forward. Alright and lastly the Green Bay Packers I didn’t wanna cover the RB situation in GB until Aaron Jones returned from suspension. Although it’s only been one week all signs point to more of what we saw against Washington in week three going forward. There was no clear-cut favorite it leads me to believe this will truly be a “hot hand” type of situation every week. In total, the Green Bay RBs played 67 snaps had 15 carries and 11 targets. Insert puking emoji here, the only thing I’m confident in is that Aaron Jones is their best RB and Ty Montgomery if healthy is their 3rd down back. When you have Rodgers as your quarterback it doesn’t seem to matter who your RBs are and although this may be true it surely sucks as a dynasty owner. Stay away from this committee at all costs.
- Overreaction Dynasty
So this is one of those short topics I wanted to mention because I may have a longer version in the works. I came across two polls on twitter this week that caught my eye. The first poll was by the great Ryan McDowell of Dynasty League Football he posted a poll of who would you rather have in dynasty Josh Allen or Dak Prescott. It’s crazy to me the results of the dynasty community being in favor of Allen 68% to Dak 32%. This is extra insane to me because this is the same Josh Allen that the dynasty community was 100% sure would be a bust. Also, this is the same Dak Prescott who in his first two full seasons finished as a top 12 QB. The recency bias in dynasty is insane to me how quick we are to crown player A to player B when a month or two prior they weren’t even in the same universe in terms of dynasty value. Listen I’m a Bills fan from Buffalo but Josh Allen playing one very good game in the NFL doesn’t immediately make him a dynasty asset just as much as a few bad games with a terrible passing offense makes Dak Prescott a nonasset. The overreaction in dynasty reaches these crazy levels sometimes and it’s head-scratching when you see polls like this. Now I realize some people may vote a certain way and wouldn’t necessarily choose Allen over Prescott if they were drafting but the large gap in the poll says something about how drastically dynasty values change from week to week. The second poll I saw also included Josh Allen because he is the perfect example recency bias getting the best of people. This poll posted by Evan Silva was more from a football fan perspective asking which QB would you rather have if you were an NFL GM, Josh Allen or Mitchell Trubisky? Allen had a bigger gap in this one as the favorite 71% to Trubisky’s 29% with over twenty thousand votes. This was actually more eye-opening because yes Evan Silva has tons of dynasty and redraft fantasy football followers but he’s a very well respected football mind as well. Recency bias gets the best of everyone almost everyone was on board with Trubisky as a superior QB prospect to Mahomes last year, yes the same guy who is on pace to break Peyton Manning’s touchdown record in his first full year as a starter. I’ll admit I was never a Mitchell Trubisky fan and I still am not but to crown Josh Allen as this big of a favorite in this poll proves how many people overreact to one game. Now, this can be a great tool for some owners as they can take advantage of the market value if they are thinking clearly and not valuing players on anything less than a full season of play. It’s ideal in dynasty is to get ahead of the curve and get players at a value buying into recency bias is the opposite way to win dynasty leagues both in the short and long term.
- The WR3 Report
I’ve spoken multiple times about my dedication to covering the play of the WR3 in dynasty. This covers a few guys who are not valued as top 24 WRs but are major factors in helping you win dynasty championships. I have four WRs I wanna touch on and a quick breakdown of their performance entering week 4. First up is Quincy Enunwa who I realize is the number one WR for the Jets. Three weeks ago he was nothing more than a dynasty stash nobody was expecting anything from after missing all of 2017. Enunwa in his first three games with a rookie QB has had 50 yards in every game and is seeing 31.5% of his teams targets. Enunwa continues to out target Robby Anderson every game. Enunwa is playing almost a TE role in this new Jets offense acting as a safety blanket for rookie QB Sam Darnold. Enunwa if he stays healthy is a start as your WR3 every week and the best part is how cheap and or free he was to acquire. Enunwa currently the WR31 in dynasty should see a steady balance of points all season with upside potential as Darnold becomes more comfortable in the offense. We move on to Kenny Golladay I know you’re thinking how can I count the current WR12 in dynasty as a WR3? Simple he is the WR3 on his own team and as much as dynasty owners believe in his upside nobody was expecting this start to the season. Golladay only seeing 20% of the targets playing alongside Marvin Jones and Golden Tate who is a target monster. Golladay is making the most of his opportunities so far averaging 19 points per game and has at least six receptions in every game this season while catching touchdowns in each of his last two games. I imagine Golladay has already moved somewhere in between dynasty WR15 to WR20 in ADP and rightfully so his upside is huge and proving it so early into his second year has dynasty owners smiling from ear to ear. We all know how good the Rams offense is the forgotten man seemed all but likely to be Robert Woods after signing Brandin Cooks this offseason. That has not been the case one bit, I’ll admit Woods who I loved in college was a disappointment in Buffalo but has found great success in Los Angeles with Sean McVay. Woods had a great 2017 season and truly the Rams offense did take a hit when he went down towards the end of the season. After the signing of Cooks I also thought Woods would be the odd man out but in this early 2018 season, he has seen 28.7% of the Rams targets which is 4% better than Cooks and 8% better than Cooper Kupp. Coming off a huge two-touchdown game in week three, Woods is currently the WR14 in dynasty. Robert Woods is the poster boy for dynasty WR3’s who will play a major role in getting you to if not winning you a championship. Lastly, it’s the often injured Will Fuller V. There’s no putting it lightly if you roster Will Fuller you are signing yourself up for aggravation as he will ride the injury report all season long. The boom potential when Fuller is in the lineup, however, is so worth it. Fuller in two games is averaging 23.2 PPG hauling in 13 receptions for 214 yards and two touchdowns. Fuller and Watson have a chemistry that cannot be ignored by dynasty owners. In the small sample size together which has been a total of six games the combination of Watson and Fuller project out to hook up for 24 touchdowns over a sixteen game season. Fuller to me is more of a sell because of his injury history and inconsistency staying on the field but assuming he’s already on your roster it didn’t cost you much and his boom potential is enough to help you win games every single week. I will bring this report back it’s a must I hold these guys in higher regards than most dynasty players.
- Why Selling Picks Isn’t The Best Strategy
This talking point popped in my head this weekend during the games and I could go on for hours but I’ll summarize. We are set to start week four on Thursday night and already four of the five QBs selected in the 2018 NFL Draft have taken over as the starters for their respective teams. Remember all five of these QBs were drafted with a veteran starter in place outside of the Bills who selected Josh Allen who many scouts believed would need the most time to sit back and learn to be successful. We move onto rookie RBs and no surprise to anyone Saquon Barkley is the RB6 with fellow rookies Royce Freeman (RB27) and Kerryon Johnson (RB34) clearly ahead of veteran starters Derrick Henry (RB44) and Shady McCoy (RB59). Now I’m not avoiding that four rookie RBs who were drafted in the top six of nearly every rookie draft are all out of the top 50 but let’s focus on the positive. Calvin Ridley in his first three games with Matt Ryan has four touchdowns which are the same number Julio Jones has in his last 25 games. The instant impact of not only rookies but second-year players is also a huge reason why you should think twice about selling picks last years running back class alone should have taught us that. Entering week four of the season three of the top twelve WRs were drafted in the 2017 or 2018 NFL Draft. As weak and unpredictable as the TE landscape is in dynasty six of the top twenty TEs currently are first or second year players. WRs and TEs typically take longer to breakout so for them to be making instant impacts is great to see. This could go on forever and honestly I’m not prepared to say everything I want to say at this point but hopefully, these few examples put a few thoughts in your head when making trades during the season. Giving up lottery tickets is not the answer to be successful in this game long term. I almost always regret giving up a top twelve rookie pick no matter how good my team is.
- Dynasty Notes Food For Thought
- Six QBs with 100% of offensive touchdowns: Rodgers, Brady, Stafford, Fitzpatrick, Cousins, and Bortles.
- Juju Smith-Schuster has four games with 100+ yards receiving going back to last season.
- Four top 20 WRs without a touchdown: Julio (WR12), Cooks (WR130, OBJ (WR17) and Landry (WR20).
- Amari Cooper snap rate this season : Wk 1 – 93%, Wk 2 – 83%, Wk 3 – 79%.
- In four games without Le’Veon Bell Juju Smith-Schuster has seen 10+ targets with career-high 19 in week two of 2018.
- Four of the top five fantasy QBs from the NFC South.
- Michael Thomas has 38 receptions through three games on pace to break NFL record by 60 catches.
- Sony Michel has been targeted or rushed the ball on 81% of his snaps this season.
- Davante Adams has caught a touchdown in five straight games including the 2017 season while shockingly only breaking 100 yards one time in his last 20 games.
- Adam Thielen has seen at least 12 targets in every game with Kirk Cousins as his QB and has seven 100+ yard games since the start of 2017.
Have a great week guys enjoy the games and we will be back next week to talk more dynasty football. Follow everyone at dynastynerds.com on twitter to keep up with all the work they are doing over there and constantly bringing you great analysis to help you win your dynasty leagues.