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“Overvalued & Undervalued” – Which Rookie QB should you be Focusing On?

DynastyNerds.com is just a few hours removed from having released its first ever dynasty rookie rankings. We know it’s only March and haven’t even had the NFL Draft yet, but it’s never too early to start preparing for your upcoming rookie draft. I took some time to look over our cumulative rankings and determined that some players were simply undervalued, while others were overvalued. A key to winning fantasy football is getting the most value out of each of your picks. While hard to sometimes avoid, the most successful owners do not fall for the boosted hype or reputations the media creates, and eventually reaching for a pick.

Putting together rankings for fantasy football is subjective and constantly a fluid situation. I don’t want to say let’s take a look of “what we got wrong”, rather, let’s take a look, at the quarterbacks I feel were under and overvalued by the staff of DynastyNerds.com.

OVERVALUED Johnny Manziel , QB, Texas A&M (Rank: No. 2 QB, 15th overall)

There’s no doubt that Johnny Manziel is a playmaker. He has the ability to avoid the rush and get the ball downfield. Just don’t over inflate his draft value. Accuracy and passing from the pocket are a concern, along with throwing many questionable late passes. He reminds me a lot of Vince Young and Tim Tebow. I am not talking about styles of play necessarily, but more of the boom/bust factor. Recent mock drafts have him drafted by teams such as the Jaguars, Browns and Raiders, teams that do not have a track record for success at grooming young quarterbacks. I personally do not see Manziel ever being a QB1 in fantasy football. Having been ranked 15th overall, you will have to spend a late first- or early second-round draft selection for a potential QB2. It’s just too risky. If your dynasty team is in dire need of a QB1—and you want to address that need in the draft—consider Teddy Bridgewater instead. The price tag should be near the same and seems to be the safer choice.

I personally do not see Manziel ever being a QB1 in fantasy football.

UNDERVALUED Aaron Murray, QB, Georgia (Rank: No. 8 QB, 49th overall)

Had Aaron Murray not torn his ACL late in his senior season, we may have been talking about him being the fourth best quarterback in this draft. He probably would’ve been on the same tier as Derek Carr and Zach Mettenberger. As it stands now though, he is grouped with A.J. McCarron and Taj Boyd, in the fourth tier of quarterbacks. His loss is your gain, though. Murray probably won’t be drafted as a QB1 for any franchise.  However, with many of the traits NFL scouts are looking for in a franchise quarterback, including arm strength, intelligence, and toughness, his opportunity may not be too far away. His injury situation reminds me that of Keenan Allen. Both have the talent of first-round selections but due to injury, may not be taken until the early to middle rounds of the NFL Draft. Allen was a sleeper that really paid off last year and I feel that Murray has the same potential. I think Murray projects as an eventual starting quarterback in the NFL; it just may not be in his rookie season. Thankfully, this is dynasty we’re talking about. In the end, he may never be more than a QB2 but the price tag won’t be nearly as high as someone like Johnny Manziel. Again, we are talking about value for your draft choice. Murray, as it stands now, could be had for a fourth-round selection in your rookie draft.


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About @dynastynerdmike

35 years old from Cleveland, Ohio. Avid NCAA and NFL football fan since the mid 1980's. Started playing fantasy football in 1993. Ohio University graduate in Sports Management in 2002. Started playing dynasty fantasy football in 2005. Football conferences of interest are the ACC and AFC North.