One of the biggest mysteries coming into the 2023 NFL season is Tua Tagovailoa. The Dolphins selected Tagovailoa with the fifth overall pick in the 2020 NFL draft. Unfortunately, Tagovailoa struggled with injuries his first few seasons and never averaged more than 14 PPG. However, after a hot start in 2022 which was later derailed by injuries, how should Tagovailoa be valued in dynasty fantasy football?
2022 Season Recap
Ever since his rookie year Tagovailoa has been under scrutiny. Fellow quarterback Justin Herbert had a much better start than Tagovailoa despite being drafted the pick after him. Herbert came out firing, averaging over 22 PPG in his first two seasons. On the other hand, it’s been a rollercoaster with Tagovailoa, which has made his fantasy owners extremely frustrated.
After the Dolphins signed Tyreek Hill to pair with Jaylen Waddle, the expectations for Tagovailoa were through the roof. For the first nine weeks of the season, Tagovailoa averaged 20 PPG and was even in the MVP conversation. Unfortunately, Tagovailoa slowed down after two concussions and finished the year averaging 17.8 PPG.
Due to all concerns about concussions, Tagovailoa is the perfect buy-low candidate. Betting on an injury, especially a freak one, is one of the worst things to do in fantasy football. Of course, there is a risk that Tagovailoa is done after another bad injury. Even so, this is baked into his QB15 price point on Dynasty Nerds ADP, and I believe this is his floor.
2023 Season Outlook
I don’t understand why Tagovailoa is one of the most hated players in fantasy football. Stepping into his second year of this Mike McDaniel offense, he should feel much more comfortable. Most importantly, he has arguably the best wide receiver duo in the league, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
After drafting Devon Achane in the third round, the Dolphins look like they will be one of the most explosive offenses in the league. Mike McDaniel is willing to throw the ball 30 to 40 times every game and is clearly committed to Tagovailoa. If this offense hits its full potential next season, there’s no doubt Tagovailoa will benefit in a big way.
This off-season, Tagovailoa has been working on his body a ton. Not only is he taking care of himself and his head, but he’s also starting to put on some significant muscle. In this video taken during the Dolphin’s training camp, Tagovailoa’s impressive physique is on full display
Tua Tagovailoa Miami Dolphins OTAspic.twitter.com/QzN8WRYM75— DEE SPORTS GUY (@DSports75727469) June 8, 2023
Should You Buy Tagovailoa?
As the QB15, I’m buying and drafting Tagovailoa everywhere I can. In a superflex format, quarterback is by far the most important position. If you can draft a cornerstone quarterback at pick 32, that’s a smash pick for me.
Having guys like C.J. Stroud and Bryce Young above him is ridiculous to me. These two rookies haven’t proven anything, don’t have much rushing upside, and are in terrible situations.
Even though Tagovailoa didn’t provide much on the ground in 2022, he picked up over 100 yards and three touchdowns in 2020 and 2021. This isn’t far from what I project for Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud. Most importantly, Tagovailoa has proven himself to be effective with one of the best wide receiver corps in the league last year. Taking everything into account, I’m all in on Tagovailoa as a cornerstone dynasty asset.