The New York Jets have been a fantasy wasteland over the last few years. Since 2018, they haven’t had a quarterback finish top 15 in the position in terms of fantasy points. The running backs have produced just one RB2, a washed-up Le’Veon Bell, who finished RB17. Since the quarterback position has been so bad, the Jets haven’t produced a WR2 or better in that timeframe. They have had only one tight end close to a low-end TE1 production. In 2022, things are looking brighter for the young team as they have revamped the entire offense. We may be saying by the end of 2022 that the Jets are a fantasy gold mine.
There may not be a bigger Wilson believer than me in the industry. Coming into the 2021 NFL draft, some of Wilson’s best traits was his accuracy, as he dominated in his senior year with a 72.5 completion percentage. His ability as a rusher showed, too, as he was a mismatch in the RedZone with ten rushing touchdowns in his final year in college. Finally, his arm strength mixed with his accuracy was dangerous as deep and intermediate precision (54% and 68%, according to PFF) was outstanding, while an average of 11.4 yards per attempt. Hence, I had Wilson ranked at the opt of the other 2021 rookie quarterbacks before the NFL draft.
In his rookie season, things did not go according to plan. Wilson could not handle the pressure of an NFL defense with a 39% completion percentage vs. pressure. He threw terrible balls, and many resulted in turnovers for the offense. Wilson’s TD: INT ratio was six to eleven in his first eight games. It also took him eight games to get his first QB1 week finish after not even being usable to a fantasy roster outside of deep Superflex leagues. Wilson also did not show off his mobility in the offense either, with just 25 rushing yards during those first games. It didn’t help that Wilson missed a portion of the middle of the season with an injury he suffered in week six.
Wilson played better in his final five games than he showed us early on in the season. Wilson was one of three quarterbacks not to have a turnover in the last five weeks. His passing could still use work, but he was more accurate in those games. Wilson also found his mobility or was given an opportunity since he had 160 rushing yards in those final five games.
Wilson in a dynasty is a perfect candidate to buy low before the 2022 season. Some of Wilson’s concerns is his ability to perform at the next level. He has the tools to do it but needs to show it on the field. He has weapons surrounding him to produce, but it will come down to his ability. I’d be looking to trade away quarterbacks on their last leg as full-time starters as we look to the future. Players like Ryan Tannehill, Carson Wentz, and even Matt Ryan get an opportunity with Wilson. Wilson is young and has the “it factor” to take some risks.
Hall has been the clear rookie 1.01 in rookie drafts all offseason. Hall was the top-rated running back coming out in the 2022 draft. It was a shock when the Jets took him in the second round since we expected a better situation for the young running back. Hall possesses a three-down ability that could make him a workhorse back. In his final two seasons at Iowa, Hall produced 3,044 yards and 41 TDs on 532 carries on the ground. He had 93 receptions in the three seasons at Iowa. Understanding how 2022 may go could lead to understanding Hall’s long-term dynasty value.
I’d expect Hall to start in a committee approach early in his rookie season. The coaching staff is a branch of the Kyle Shanahan system that likes to employ multiple running backs in the running game. Last season the Jets running backs averaged 22 carries and nine targets per game. While that could improve just for the team’s overall success this offseason and an improved offensive line, there are still unknowns. Hall should be the lead in the committee, handling like 50% of the workload in the early portion, but dynasty owners will want more from Hall. I’d expect Michael Carter, Tyler Johnson, and Tevin Coleman to be mixed in the game.
By mid-season, I’d expect Hall to start seeing the bulk of the work. Hall will likely have multiple times to be ranked as a top10 RB over the next four to five seasons. You’ll likely have to give up a first-rounder and a player right now if you want to get Hall before his value risers. There may be a small mid-season window where you could get him if they stick to the committee approach early in the season. Hall is a great talent you want to have in a dynasty.
No one’s value fell great than the Jets drafted Hall in the 2022 draft than Carter. He had blazing speed and pass-catching ability coming out of college. He produced 2,600 yards during his final two seasons at North Carolina, where he had a split-time job. Carter showed flashes during this rookie season, especially in the passing game. Unfortunately, most of his work didn’t come with Zach Wilson, as Carter produced 504 all-purpose yards and 33 targets in five games. He only had 445 all-purpose yards with Wilson and just 23 targets in 12 other games.
Wilson did not usually throw to his running backs that often, as he only had one of his backs see over five targets with him at quarterback. It is going to be interesting what Carter’s role is moving forward. Perhaps the fewer carries will give more efficient production and lighten the workload on Carter. The other scenario is that Hall takes a significant workload jump, leaving Carter only a relevant player if Hall gets hurt. Carter’s value is low, so that you can get him at a discount. He could still have weekly dynasty value or be a reliable bench running back on your roster.
Moore put up a solid final season at Ole Miss that led to Moore being drafted in the second draft of the 2021 draft. During Moore’s rookie season, it took him some time to burst on the field. It wasn’t until week nine that he put up an impressive 84 yards and two touchdowns on seven receptions. Unfortunately, most of his games were without Wilson because of his injury. Moore and Wilson did have one strong outing together in week 13 when Moore produced 77 yards and a touchdown on six receptions for the game. After that game, Moore would miss the rest of the season with an injury. From week 8 to week 13, Moore was the number two receiver in fantasy football.
Moore’s future partly hangs in the balance of Wilson in dynasty. Moore is now dominating training camp and is off to a strong start. The Athletic’s Jets reporter Zack Rosenblatt explained the 2021 second-round picks’ stellar play thus far.
“Moore continues to be one of the Jets’ stars of training camp, no matter who is throwing him the ball. He seems to make at least one big play every practice. … If it was in question, Moore seems to have firmly established himself as this team’s No. 1 receiver. He’s in line for a big year.”
The world was nervous when Wilson was drafted in the first round of the 2022 draft having folks question Moore’s future. The two receivers play entirely different styles of receiver. Moore has more of the explosive big play ability downfield, which makes him perfect with Zach Wilson since that is one of Wilson’s strong suits. I’d expect Garrett Wilson to be targeted heavily to start the season. Sending a 2023 first for a needy receiver dynasty team makes a ton of sense to acquire Moore in fantasy.
It will be interesting where Garrett Wilson will line up at the NFL level. Corey Davis is likely to play outside, and I would expect Moore too, but it’s likely to be rotational. That would leave Wilson to handle the slot role, and his footwork and route running would dominate in the NFL. Wilson played more outside in 2021 in college but was more efficient in his slot snaps. Per the Jets X article, Michael Nania
Here are Wilson’s numbers in 2021:
- Slot: Ran 61 routes out of the slot and recorded 18 catches on 22 targets for 297 yards and 4 TD. Averaged 4.87 yards per route run and 13.5 yards per target.
- Non-slot: Ran 292 non-slot routes and recorded 52 catches on 80 targets for 761 yards and 8 TD. Averaged 2.61 yards per route run and 9.5 yards per target.
Wilson getting the slot role for the Jets would be ideal for fantasy since the slot receiver played well in New York last season. Eight times, the Jets slot receiver saw ten plus fantasy points in a game. Wilson will cost you some trade value if you try to acquire him. A 2023 first-round pick could do the job, but I understand the hesitation to trade for the Jets’ offense. Don’t miss the opportunity to buy into the young talent; Wilson was my highly graded rookie receiver. He should be a top-tier dynasty receiver for a long time in this league.
Davis is well past his upside as a dynasty receiver heading into 2022. Davis has just two seasons with over 500 receiving yards in his career. Davis has been injury prone over his career and was hoping for a fresh start in New York but got hurt in Week 7 of the 2021 season. Davis was playing early last year with five of his seven games over 40 yards and was on pace to match his career bests. He was building a great rapport with Zach Wilson last season.
Based on what Davis has shown so far in his career, it’s better to trade him away for the value of a late 2023 second-round pick if you can get that back. At the same time, he could still rebound, but it’s unlikely with the Jets having added two receivers in the last two drafts who have more upside in their game. Davis’s contract year could be cut in 2023 since the dead cap is under $700,000. I’d rather get back a 2023 early third than give away one for a receiver who could be third on targets on a mediocre team.
The tight end will be interesting this season since they are two potential players who could step up as the starter. Uzomah would likely have the first crack since he was paid the most to join the team. Uzomah had some career highs in 2021 in the Bengals’ Super Bowl run. Uzomah was already better known as a do-it-all tight end, including his blocking ability. He hasn’t gotten over 500 yards receiving in a season and was touchdown-dependent. I’d expect a similar situation in New York where he is a red zone threat and would require a touchdown to make fantasy radars. Sitting at 28 years old already, I’d look to sell off Uzomah for a 2023/2024 third-round pick if a contending team needs a TE.
The Jets also signed Conklin to the team, which profiles more as a pass-catching tight end. Last year Conklin produced 593 yards and three touchdowns on 61 receptions. According to TheJetPress.com’s Justin Fried – In addition to his performance on Saturday, Fried wrote that the former Vikings draft pick “has been one of the stars of the summer” for the Jets and that he is the “clear No. 1 tight end” for New York heading into the regular season. It makes perfect sense since Uzomah has been battling injuries, and Conklin developed well so that he is emerging in his fifth season. The Jets tight end only had a 10% target share last season, so we’ll see how much of that roll to 2022. Conklin is a buy-low candidate for the position in dynasty leagues. He could be a weekly boarding TE 1 over the next few seasons.
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