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2022 Rookie Draft Profiles

2022 Rookie Profile: Garret Wilson- Wide Receiver

Can Garrett Wilson be the NFL’s next superstar receiver? Yes, yes he can.

Ohio’s State’s star receiver, Garrett Wilson, is one of the most dynamic players in the 2022 draft. His game-breaking skills and monstrous production will have him going in the top half of the first round this spring. He’s not the biggest or the fastest guy in this receiving class, but he well may be the best.

Profile

  • School: Ohio State
  • Year: Junior
  • Position: Wide Receiver
  • Height: 6’0’’
  • Weight: 188 lb

Bio / College

Hailing from Lake Travis HS in Austin, TX, Wilson was the #2 ranked WR in the 2019 class. An early enrollee, Wilson made an immediate impact, forcing his way onto the field as a true freshman and producing.

Receiving & Rushing

YearSchoolClassPosGRecYdsAvgTDRu. AttRu. YdsRu. AvgScrim YdsScrim TD
*2019Ohio StateFRWR133043214.45004325
*2020Ohio StateSOWR84372316.8626733.57906
*2021Ohio StateJRWR1170105815.11247619.0113413
Career143221315.523614323.8235624
Garret Wilson Colege Stats (Per https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/garrett-wilson-2.html)

Wilson spent the next three years racking up stats, awards, and watchlists, including All-Big Ten, preseason All-American, Big Ten Offensive Player of the Week, and this year’s Biletnikoff list.

It’s important that we keep his stats in context as well. While Wilson didn’t hit 1k yards until his junior year, he’s competed with- and often outperformed- other NFL players at every step of the way, including fellow 2022 first-rounders Chris Olave and Jameson Williams and the LAC’s KJ Hill.

Stats and Analytics

Wilson ranks highly in nearly every significant metric. His Receiving Yards Per Team Pass Attempt (RYPTPA) figure of 3.21 compares favorably with any of the top prospects from recent draft classes. His .31 Dominator score is more than adequate. He’s a sophomore breakout at the 20% level. His Yards / Route Run figure of 3.0 is top 12 in this class. He has nice EPA (Expected Points Added) numbers, a good asset in the profile.

Over the past couple of years, I’ve developed a metric I call the Composite Production Index (CPI), including a data-based teammate score. Using these metrics together yields a much better, more predictive cohort than any individual metric I’ve tested, and it’s the primary tool I use now for data scouting.

In the CPI, Wilson registers a solid 5.92, which puts him in an excellent tier, but falls just short of the topmost, “untouchable” cohort (6.5 or higher- from the past two classes, that’s Eli Moore, Justin Jefferson, Jamar Chase, Devonta Smith, and Ceedee Lamb). He’s in a “great prospect” cohort that’s still filled with studs- he scored higher than Higgins, Aiyuk, and Waddle- but also includes some misses and some question marks, like Tylan Wallace and Jerry Jeudy.

Note that this is a pre-combine, pre-draft-capital data metric- the “great prospect” tier+ Day 2 or better draft capital becomes a very high hit rate, and Wilson is a lock to go day1.

Film and Traits

While Wilson’s statistical profile looks quite good, his film is next-level.

Among his best traits, for me, is his exceptional work after the catch. Check this play:

It’s not just the spin move: it’s the awareness to process the situation as he’s completing the catch, it’s the creative problem solving, it’s the ability to chain multiple moves together in sequence. Nasty.

Here’s another slick play from that game:

I wish we could see the route a little better here, but he’s created multiple yards of space when the ball arrives. This gives him enough space to burn the first defender easily, dodge a second tackle, and extend the play for an additional few yards.

I have a name here for you: Ceedee. Just saying.

A few minutes later, Wilson scores on this nice TD catch:

Watch the beginning of the clip closely. Wilson wins this route at the release, hitting a quick jab step to the outside and bursting by the DB with inside leverage. Again, he has multiple yards of separation when the ball arrives, and Wilson catches the ball in stride without shedding any speed, making this an easy TD.

He shows off his route savvy and underrated athleticism on this TD:

It’s a simple play design with a built-in pick. If you watch, Wilson waits for the DB playing to his inside to glance back to the QB before he breaks, making sure he can’t jump the route. He explodes into the end zone- he’s not going to run a 4.4, but he doesn’t have to. He’s got enough top speed and plenty of burst.

Here’s another filthy bit of route running from that game:

Wilson doesn’t get the ball, but this little snag route he runs deserves a clip, anyway. That DB is so lost he’s going to need a map to make it back to the huddle.

The other most impressive traits I pick up for Wilson are his ball tracking and his body control.

This absurd, twisting sideline TD catch is ridiculous, but it’s very much so par for the course in Wilson’s college film.

Prognosis

Look: you want Wilson on your dynasty team. Some say that you should take the WRs in this class (Wilson / Burks / Williams) over the RBs and over the QBs, even in Superflex.

I love Breece and Spiller, and I think Corral will be a successful NFL QB, so I’m not sure I’m going that far. These guys are all in the same tier in 2022 rookie drafts, and I’m ok going with team needs within that tier.

I am, however, certain that Wilson will be a successful #1/#2 WR in the NFL and a massive dynasty asset.

I threw the Ceedee Lamb comp out there earlier, and that’s not hyperbole; it’s a solid playstyle comp, and Wilson has the same type of ceiling.

If managers in your league think 2022 draft picks are trash, go get ’em and draft Wilson.

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