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2023 Fantasy Forecast: Miami Dolphins

The Fantasy Forecast rolls on with @CoachStevenP breaking down the Miami Dolphins.

Tua Tagovailoa

One of the hardest dynasty quarterbacks to evaluate is Tua. On the one hand, he is part of a high-power-throwing offense with elite weapons. He showed elite fantasy production with six of his 13 games with 20 plus fantasy points. He had career highs in most passing categories and led the league in yards per attempt and deep ball completions. His 17-game span last season, had he played every game, would have led him to a top-five fantasy finish. On the other hand, we all know that Tua suffered multiple concussions last season, which threatened his football career moving forward.

Whether you are a contender or a rebuilder, Tua is a player that could be worth the risk for your dynasty team. We can’t predict the future with injuries, and we’ve seen over time that the player could fall into a bad situation that could end their NFL career. Tua is doing ways to prevent possible concussions from happening. He had been taking jiu-jitsu to improve his methods of falling or taking on hits. Tua has also been bulking up this season.

Tua can be a scary option for both contenders and rebuilders, but it is worth the risk for the 2023 season. If he can stay healthy, he has QB1 upside with his weapons. His talent is no concern; he is an elite player, but availability can be an issue. Tua’s 2023 season will very much determine his cloudy dynasty future.

Injury Case

As we know that Tua is on watch for future concussions, and his ability to play 17 games is in doubt to many folks. If Tua misses games again, the Dolphins will turn to Mike White or Skylar Thompson. Thompson wasn’t great last season as he started a hand full of them. He will likely stay on as a third-string quarterback but should be on dynasty waivers. Mike White is a premier backup quarterback that anyone needing quarterback depth should have. White only had one good game last year in four starts with the Jets. White is in a better situation with two elite receiver options than just one in New York. He is inconsistent, but he can play some good boom-bust options for a dynasty team. White fits the offense as a downfield thrower that will be successful if he is called to play in the offense.

RBs Raheem Mostert & Jeff Wilson

The Dolphins’ early season starters will likely be Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson. Mostert was the Week 1 starter in 2022 and should likely be that in 2023. Mostert was able to play a full season after years of floating around or dealing with the injury bug. He wasn’t all that great as a fantasy running back as he was only RB 26, the lead guy before Jeff Wilson arrived on the team. Mostert is already 30 years old and only played one RB3 season. He dropped in the fantasy value playing with Jeff Wilson in the offense. Mostert was 7th in yards per attempt but is in a clear committee.

Mostert likely will see first crack a rushing opportunity, but he can’t be trusted in 2023 as anything more than a bench piece on a contending team. He likely won’t be used in goal line situations with Jeff Wilson on the team. He is, at best, an RB3 with minimal upside. Mostert isn’t a back worth having, especially with Miami being in a committee and the Dolphins being in the bottom 10 in rushing attempts again.

Jeff Wilson has been a productive fantasy running back over the year for dynasty owners. He, too, has dealt with injury concerns over his career. He hasn’t been able to play a full season due to his injury history. When Jeff Wilson arrived at the Dolphins, he took over as the ball carrier out touching Mostert 65 to 44 when both were healthy. Jeff Wilson is a better option to own in the dynasty because he is younger than Mostert and can handle the goal line situations. Wilson is likely to be the second option in the offense early on in this committee. I can’t see Jeff Wilson being more than an RB3 for a contending dynasty team. Mostert and Wilson are just gap-fillers until the young rookie can become his own.

DeVon Achane

The possible best running back on the team by the end of the season is Achane. He has looked explosively all off-season and should be making an impact as a rookie. The question is how much and how soon due to the two veterans on the team. As the season goes on, Achane should see more and more work. Achane should be used in different ways, likely between the 20s more often than not. He isn’t likely to be used as a goal-line back due to his smaller frame. His value for your fantasy team will be off the ability to hit big runs and his versatility in the offense.

It seems likely a long shot that Achane finishes as a top-20 running back, but there will be a stretch in the season where he will make noise. He is a good fit for both contenders and rebuilders. I’ve still been looking to buy into Achane before his talent shows. Don’t let the slight interest in Dalvin Cook ruin Achane’s value. For one, I don’t think he goes there, and two, it’s not about Achane but the team’s potential for a Super Bowl run. Achane will make an impact in 2023.

WRs Tyreek Hill

Tyreek Hill is the clear number one for this Miami Dolphins offense. He hit a career-high in targets, receptions, and yards last season. His 17 games pace, had he played with Tua all season, would have had him on par with Justin Jefferson or potentially scoring even more fantasy points. In nine of 13 games he played with Tua, he had over 80 yards at least. Hill was on pace to break over 2000 receiving yards in the first half of the season before Tua picked up more concussions. Hill struggled in four of five games that Tua didn’t play, having under 70 yards in those games. A healthy Tua will make Hill a fantastic WR 1 for your dynasty teams. You should have better hope if Tua goes down since Mike White is a better passer than what the Dolphins had the last season.

Tyreek Hilll Per Game AverageRecTgYdsTDs
W/ Tua7101081
W/O Tua56760

Hill got into trouble in the off-season when he was accused of hitting someone. There is some investigation going on with Hill. That could lead to a possible suspension. Nonetheless, he is still an elite receiver you want as a dynasty owner to obtain. As long as he plays 17 games, Hill should be a top 5 receiver in 2023. Contending teams should be looking to give up a first and third to acquire the 29-year-old receiver because he should be able to give you two more dominant seasons.

Jaylen Waddle

Jaylen Waddle also had an impressive jump in his fantasy development as he finished as a WR1 being the second option in the offense. Waddle was able to dominate, taking on second defenders for big gains. His ability to turn into a deep threat being first in YPR and YPT blended well with Hill’s reception hog ability in 2022. Waddle had to be efficient since he only had four games over eight targets. Waddle isn’t likely to be a reception machine or have the upside to get WR1 targets over 140. Just like Hill, Waddle’s fate for 2023 will be off the health of Tua. Waddle saw a decrease in production without Tua on the field.

W/ Tua57921
W/O Tua46620

As you can see, the target share didn’t drop as much, but the yardage took a hit, and the opportunity to score did. Waddle will need to be very efficient once again if he is going to match his WR 1 fantasy success again. He will likely be a high WR2 in fantasy because he doesn’t see the target share that most WR1s will unless an injury occurs. Waddle is a receiver you are going to want in dynasty. Whether as a contender or a rebuilding team, Waddle is a cornerstone for any dynasty team.

The rest of the Brunch

It will be hard for anyone not named Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle to make an impact for fantasy. They combined for a 38% target share in the offense. Braxton Berrios will likely start in three wide receiver sets, so there is value there. He is better suited as a bench piece for a contending fantasy owner. Outside of the last season, Berrios produced in fantasy football whenever he got an opportunity. It’s hard to imagine him doing that often as long as Hill and Waddle are on the field. He is, at best, a bench piece with no long-term value in the dynasty. Cedrick Wilson will likely fight Berrios for that third spot in the offense. Wilson has been a disappointment since coming to Miami after a solid 600-yard season with the Cowboys in 2021. Like Berrios, Wilson is an end-of-a-bench roster spot that likely won’t make noise.

Chosen Anderson (Robbie) is also fighting for playing time. He is an older player at 30 and hasn’t produced much over the last two years. He is probably on rosters due to name value, but in my eyes, he is a waiver guy. Most of these players aren’t helping a contending team out in 2023. As for rebuild, I like Erik Ezukmana and Bralyon Sanders as deep stashes in 2023. The likelihood they play is small, but their talent is intriguing.

TE: A Mixed Bag

The tight end position for the Miami Dolphins has not been friendly for fantasy owners. Once Mike Gesicki left this offseason, it left the position with many average veterans. Durham Smythe is to lead this group of players. His best season was in 2021, with 349 yards and zero touchdowns. Not a player you want to help your dynasty team. The Dolphins were tied for the worst target share to tight ends in 2022. Smythe is likely to be left on waivers in all formats. Tyler Kroft and Eric Saubert are there too, but both are just journeyman tight ends who haven’t been able to find consistent work in an offense in years. Then there is Elijah Higgins, a rookie from Stanford who switched from receiver to tight end coming into the draft. He is a big physical player that lacks speed but is an interesting prospect for the tight-end position. Teams in rebuilding should try to add him to their taxi squad in the hope he can progress. None of Miami’s tight ends should be considered for 2023 outside of Higgins for long-term dynasty value.

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