Missing on a quarterback in a Superflex league can set you back for years. Don’t fret; the Dynasty Nerds guys are here with four overvalued quarterbacks to avoid at their current values. That’s not to say you should avoid them altogether. Just be wary of the price.
Anthony Richardson, QB12
If the month is June, there is one thing that you can bank on; the dynasty community will be overvaluing rookies in startup drafts. That case remains the same with Indianapolis Colts rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson. After being selected in the top five of the 2023 NFL draft, Richardson has been lighting up rookie mini-camp and OTAs.
The NFL and dynasty managers are chasing the high that is Josh Allen. Since Allen led the Buffalo Bills to the playoffs, toolsy and big-armed quarterbacks have been flying off draft boards. Anthony Richardson looks the part of a difference-maker at the next level, but we must look at the bigger picture. Richardson was and still is a raw quarterback prospect that is nowhere near guaranteed to hit at the next level.
According to PFF, out of all FBS quarterbacks to have at least 330 dropbacks last season, Anthony Richardson ranked dead last in adjusted completion percentage. This statistic is very clear to see when watching his tape from Florida. After his deep bombs that rocked Twitter during the NFL scouting combine, many in the industry joked that you could see these throws in his film when he overthrows his receivers by 15 yards.
Dan Toomey @DanT_NFL
Daniel Jones, QB16
Daniel Jones is currently overvalued as the QB16. Most of Jones’s success in 2022 came from him rushing. He ran the ball 120 times for 708 yards and 7 touchdowns. While these numbers are great, they are currently the outlier for his career. It was double his high in attempts, yards, and touchdowns. This could be due to Brian Daboll coming over as the new head coach after mentoring Josh Allen in Buffalo. Without that rushing, Daniel Jones is a bottom-of-third passer. He only managed 3205 yards and 15 touchdowns and added 5 interceptions. It’s low passing production. In his first three seasons, Jones had not finished above QB24. He will have to repeat that high volume of rushing to pay off his draft cost.
The Giants had very little in the form of receivers in 2022 but have bulked up that group with Darren Waller and drafting Jalin Hyatt. They also should get a full season from Wan’Dale Robinson. This will cut into Danny Dimes’ need to run. His passing number should go up but marginally. He should have closer to 20 touchdowns, which he only reached in his rookie season. If his rushing stats return to his career norm of 300 yards and 2 touchdowns, he will need at least 20 touchdowns and 3200 yards to repeat his QB9 finish. It would have to be his best season as a passer in his career. Let’s also not overlook that last year was the first time Daniel Jones played a full season for the Giants.
Dustin Ludke @theDunit13
Kirk Cousins, QB17
As good as Cousins has been, seeing him as a fifth-round pick in a dynasty startup is a bit high. I know quarterbacks get moved up the board in Superflex leagues, but Cousins’ long-term value is cloudy. In 2023 he should be in for an excellent season with an elite core around him. Cousins will be turning 35 before the start of the season, and not many quarterbacks can continue to be full-time starters at that age. Over the last few years, there has been a long rumor of separation between Cousins and the Vikings. His contract ends after the 2023 season, and he will be a free agent.
Can he re-sign with the Vikings? Sure, but if Cousins can’t lead the elite offense to a championship, the organization may need to mix things up, especially with other contracts like Justin Jefferson and TJ Hockenson nearing extensions. Cousins would end up on a new team in 2024, but he’ll not have the same talent with the best receiver in the game, a first-round pick receiver in Jordan Addison, and a top-five tight end. You are paying fifth-round capital for potentially one more season of top-14 quarterback value. Cousins had a down season in 2022; he had six games under 15 fantasy points with an elite offense. He has the most interceptions in his career with 14. He has the lowest completion percentage since 2017 and his lowest touchdown-to-attempt ratio since 2016. I think Cousins fall is coming, but he is getting a bump due to his talent around him.
Steven Pintado @CoachStevenP
Bryce Young, QB12
The Carolina Panthers are rebuilding with first-overall selection Bryce Young at quarterback, but it’s a mistake to take him as the QB12. He will be playing for a coach that will have a run-first mentality. The Panthers haven’t had a quarterback worth rostering for fantasy since Cam Newton in 2018. Young is being taken ahead of proven talents like Dak Prescott, Kyler Murray, and Tua Tagovailoa. Young has one of the weakest receiving corps in the game. The receivers have only three 1000-yard seasons out of the 26 seasons they have played. They combined only have 87 touchdowns in 334 games. It’s just not a group to get excited about.
The highest a quarterback has finished in a Reich-led team was Carson Wentz in 2021, where he was QB14. That was on a team that had better weapons to throw to than what Young will have. It was also a team looking to make a playoff run, even though they fell short. The Panthers are looking to build for the future, so don’t expect them to let Young let it rip in his first season. He doesn’t have the rushing upside of Anthony Richardson. Lacking that will keep his fantasy points down. He would have to have close to record-breaking numbers for a rookie to match or exceed his current ADP.