Veteran QB Projections | Using Historical Trends to Predict 2025 Performances

Football is a job that only a select few athletes ever get to experience at the professional level. The average career span for an NFL player is just 3.3 years. However, some players manage to carve out long-lasting careers, defying the odds and staying relevant well beyond the league average. In this veteran QB projections article, we’ll focus on players who have played eight or more seasons in the NFL. We will analyze some fantasy football trends that emerge from their extended careers. We’ve reviewed data from the past 10 years to identify patterns, starting with the quarterback position known for its longer career trajectory compared to other roles.

Veteran QB Projections | Average FPPG Experience

Elite Veteran QB1s Seasons

Fantasy Year	Player	QB Finish	FPPG	Exp.	GP	Rushing Yards	Pass Att	Passing Yards	Pass %	Pass TDs	Weapons	Top Rusher	Length on Team
2016	Aaron Rodgers	1	23.8	12	16	369	610	4428	65.7	40	Jordy Nelson	457	12
2015	Tom Brady	2	21.5	16	16	53	624	4770	64.4	36	Rob Gronkowski	703	16
2016	Matt Ryan	2	21.7	9	16	117	534	4944	69.9	38	Julio Jones	1079	9
2016	Tom Brady	3	21.5	17	12	64	432	3554	67.4	28	Julian Edelmann	1161	17
2021	Tom Brady	3	22.7	22	17	81	719	5316	67.5	43	Chris Godwin	812	2
2018	Ben Roethlisberger	3	21.3	15	16	96	675	5129	67	34	JuJu Smith-Shuster	973	15
2015	Drew Brees	4	20.3	15	15	14	627	4870	68.3	32	Brandin Cooks	769	10
2016	Drew Brees	4	20.8	16	16	20	673	5208	70	37	Brandin Cooks	1043	11
2017	Alex Smith	4	19.7	13	15	355	505	4042	67.5	26	Tyreek Hill	1327	5
2023	Dak Prescott	4	20.7	8	17	242	590	4516	69.5	36	CeeDee Lamb	1005	8
2020	Aaron Rodgers	5	24.2	16	16	149	526	4299	70.7	48	Davante Adams	1104	16
		Average	21.7	14.5	15.6	141.8	592.3	4643.3	68.0	36.2		948.5	11.0

Key Takaways

• Pocket Passer QBs
• Pass Attempts
• Length with Team/Experience

Since 2015, seven quarterbacks with at least eight years of NFL experience have reached elite top-5 QB1 fantasy status in a given season. Some of these veterans, including Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Aaron Rodgers, have achieved this multiple times throughout their careers, solidifying their Hall-of-Fame credentials.

Traditional pocket passers have shown a clear advantage in longevity, both in the NFL and in fantasy football. Over the last decade, these veteran quarterbacks have produced 11 total top-5 QB1 seasons. Surprisingly, only 2 of those seasons included more than 300 rushing yards, highlighting a key limitation for mobile quarterbacks as they age.

While mobile QBs can still produce QB1-level seasons in their 30s, the elite upside does not show well in the data. The data suggests that aging pocket passers, with their sustained passing volume and system familiarity, offer more consistent top-end fantasy returns.

Passing volume was another clear indicator of success. Of the 11 top-5 seasons:

• 7 quarterbacks threw for at least 590 pass attempts.
• That number could’ve been higher, as Tom Brady and Alex Smith both didn’t play a full season in one of their top-5 years.
• While other QBs have eclipsed 590 attempts without finishing in the top 5, this remains a strong threshold for forecasting QB1-level production.

Simply put, sustained opportunity and volume are vital for veteran quarterbacks to break into the elite fantasy tier.

Two other interesting patterns emerged: total years of NFL experience and tenure with a single team.

• 9 of the 11 top-5 seasons came from quarterbacks with 12 or more years of experience.
• Although only 5 of the 7 individual QBs actually had that much experience, it highlights how rare it is for players around the 29–31 age range to hit top-5 status. This raises an important question for today’s stars, such as Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Lamar Jackson.

In fact, among these elite QB1 seasons:

• The average experience was 14.5 years.
• The average tenure with the same team was 11 years.

This suggests that long-term familiarity with a team’s system, coaching staff, and personnel can help aging quarterbacks maintain elite-level play. The only exceptions in the sample were Tom Brady in Tampa Bay and Alex Smith with Kansas City, demonstrating that elite performance can still be achieved in new environments, although it’s less common.

Other QB1 Seasons

Fantasy Year	Player	QB Finish	FPPG	Exp.	GP	Rushing Yards	Pass Att	Passing Yards	Pass %	Pass TDs	Weapons	Top Rusher	Length on Team
2015	Carson Palmer	6	19.3	13	16	24	537	4671	63.7	35	Larry Fitzgerald	814	3
2019	Russell Wilson	6	20.9	8	16	342	516	4110	66.1	31	Tyler Lockett	1230	8
2017	Tom Brady	6	18.5	18	16	28	581	4577	66.3	32	Brandin Cooks	896	18
2018	Drew Brees	7	20.3	18	15	22	489	3992	74.4	32	Michael Thomas	883	13
2024	Jared Goff	7	19.7	9	17	56	539	4629	72.4	37	Amon-Ra St.Brown	1412	4
2020	Russell Wilson	7	23.3	9	16	513	558	4212	68.8	40	DK MetCalf	681	9
2021	Aaron Rodgers	8	21	17	16	101	531	4415	68.9	37	Davante Adams	803	17
2016	Ben Roethlisberger	8	18	13	14	29	509	3819	64.4	28	Antonio Brown	907	11
2017	Ben Roethlisberger	8	17.4	14	15	14	561	4251	64.2	34	Antonio Brown	1268	12
2018	Cam Newton	8	20.2	8	14	488	471	3395	67.9	24	Christian McCaffrey	1098	8
2022	Geno Smith	8	18.5	10	17	366	572	4282	69.8	30	DK MetCalf	1050	3
2015	Aaron Rodgers	9	18.8	11	16	344	572	3821	60.7	31	James Jones	758	11
2018	Aaron Rodgers	9	19.5	14	16	269	597	4442	62.3	25	Davante Adams	728	14
2019	Ryan Tannehill	9	19.2	8	12	185	286	2742	64.2	22	AJ Brown	1540	1
2017	Matthew Stafford	10	17.1	9	16	98	565	4446	65.7	29	Marvin Jones	552	9
2020	Ryan Tannehill	10	21.9	9	16	266	481	3819	70.3	33	AJ Brown	2027	2
2020	Tom Brady	10	21.9	21	16	6	610	4633	65.7	40	Mike Evans	978	1
2022	Kirk Cousins	11	18	11	17	97	643	4547	65.9	29	Justin Jefferson	1173	4
2016	Matthew Stafford	11	17.5	8	16	207	594	4327	65.3	24	Golden Tate	357	8
2021	Matthew Stafford	11	20.4	13	17	43	601	4886	67.2	41	Cooper Kupp	845	1
2024	Patrick Mahomes	11	18.3	8	16	307	581	3926	67.5	26	Travis Kelce	728	8
2020	Kirk Cousins	12	20	9	16	156	516	4265	67.6	35	Justin Jefferson	1557	2
2021	Kirk Cousins	12	19.2	10	16	115	561	4221	66.3	33	Justin Jefferson	1159	3
2017	Philip Rivers	12	16.9	14	16	-2	575	4515	62.6	28	Keenan Allen	1105	14
		Average	19.4	11.8	15.8	169.8	543.6	4206.0	66.6	31.5		1022.9	7.7

Beyond the elite tier, we examined the remaining QB1 seasons produced by quarterbacks with eight or more years of experience. Since 2015, there have been 24 instances where a veteran QB finished as a QB1 in fantasy points per game (FPPG), but not in the top 5.

This second tier showed notable differences compared to the elite group. These quarterbacks, on average, had:

• Fewer pass attempts
• Lower passing yardage
• Fewer passing touchdowns

This suggests that while experience helps quarterbacks remain fantasy-relevant, volume and efficiency are key separators between good and elite.

Unlike the elite tier, this second tier includes a few mobile quarterbacks, most notably Russell Wilson in his earlier years and Cam Newton in his 8th season. While mobility declines with age, these cases show that veteran mobile quarterbacks can still reach QB1 status, although it remains uncommon.

The pattern reinforces the idea that older dual-threat QBs lose some upside over time, but with the right system and health, they can still produce solid fantasy seasons.

A surprising finding: Changing teams doesn’t disqualify a veteran from QB1 production.

• Of the 35 QB1 seasons in this tier, 8 came from quarterbacks on new teams.

This suggests that quarterbacks with experience can adapt quickly, especially if placed in a supportive offensive system with quality weapons. Some of these players were Ryan Fitzpatrick, Ryan Tannehill, and Matthew Stafford, who were surrounded by elite talent.

While most of the elite tier quarterbacks had 12+ years of experience, this second group includes a significant number in the 8–9 year range:

• 9 of the 35 QB1 seasons came from quarterbacks with exactly 8 or 9 years of experience at the time.

SuperFlex Worthy QB2 Seasons

Fantasy Year	Player	QB Finish	FPPG	Exp.	GP	Rushing Yards	Pass Att	Passing Yards	Pass %	Pass TDs	Weapons	Top Rusher	Length on Team
2020	Ben Roethlisberger	13	18.5	17	15	11	608	3803	65.66	33	Diontae Johnson	721	17
2021	Russell Wilson	13	17.8	10	14	183	400	3113	64.8	25	Tyler Lockett	749	10
2023	Jared Goff	13	17.7	8	17	21	605	4575	67.3	30	Amon-Ra St.Brown	1015	3
2023	Russell Wilson	13	17.7	12	15	341	447	3070	66.4	26	Courtland Sutton	774	2
2015	Eli Manning	14	18	12	16	61	618	4432	62.6	35	Odell Beckham Jr.	863	12
2018	Philip Rivers	14	17.8	15	16	7	508	4308	68.3	32	Keenan Allen	885	15
2019	Aaron Rodgers	14	17.6	15	16	183	569	4002	62	26	Davante Adams	1084	16
2017	Drew Brees	14	16.4	17	16	12	536	3992	72	23	Michael Thomas	1124	12
2022	Tom Brady	15	18.5	23	17	-1	733	4694	66.8	25	Mike Evans	668	3
2015	Philip Rivers	15	17.8	12	16	28	661	4792	66.1	29	Danny Woodhead	641	12
2015	Ryan Fitzpatrick	15	17.8	11	16	270	562	3905	59.6	31	Brandon Marshall	1070	1
2021	Ryan Tannehill	15	16.6	10	17	270	531	3734	67.2	21	AJ Brown	937	3
2024	Geno Smith	15	16.5	12	17	272	578	4320	70.4	21	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	573	5
2020	Drew Brees	16	18	20	12	-2	390	2942	70.5	24	Alvin Kamara	932	15
2019	Ryan Fitzpatrick	16	17	15	15	243	502	3529	62	20	DeVante Parker	243	1
2019	Tom Brady	16	17	20	16	34	613	4057	60.8	24	Julian Edelman	912	20
2023	Matthew Stafford	16	16.9	15	15	65	521	3965	62.6	24	Puka Nacua	1144	2
2020	Cam Newton	17	17.9	10	15	592	368	2657	65.8	8	Jakobi Meyers	691	1
2018	Tom Brady	17	17.5	19	16	35	570	4355	65.8	29	Julian Edelman	931	19
2021	Derek Carr	17	15.9	8	17	108	626	4804	68.4	23	Hunter Renfrow	872	8
2022	Marcus Mariota	17	15.8	8	13	438	300	2219	61.3	15	Drake London	1035	1
2016	Carson Palmer	18	16.2	14	15	38	597	4233	61	26	Larry Fitzgerald	1239	3
2016	Philip Rivers	18	16.2	13	16	35	578	4386	60.4	33	Tyrell Williams	997	13
2022	Russell Wilson	18	15.7	11	15	277	483	3524	60.5	16	Jerry Jeudy	703	1
2015	Alex Smith	19	17	11	16	498	470	3486	65.3	20	Jeremy Maclin	634	3
2024	Aaron Rodgers	19	15.7	20	17	107	584	3897	63	28	Garrett Wilson	876	2
2022	Derek Carr	19	15.5	9	15	102	502	3522	60.8	24	Davante Adams	1653	9
2020	Matthew Stafford	21	16.9	12	16	112	528	4084	64.2	26	Marvin Jones	604	12
2019	Kirk Cousins	21	16.7	8	15	63	444	3603	69.1	26	Stefon Diggs	1135	2
2016	Joe Flacco	21	15.2	9	16	58	672	4317	64.9	20	Mike Wallace	774	9
2021	Teddy Bridgewater	21	15	8	15	106	426	3052	66.9	18	Courtland Sutton	918	1
2016	Alex Smith	22	14.9	12	16	134	489	3502	67.1	15	Travis Kelce	921	4
2017	Matt Ryan	22	14.3	10	16	143	529	4095	64.7	20	Julio Jones	865	10
2019	Philip Rivers	23	16	16	16	29	591	4615	66	23	Keenan Allen	612	16
		Average	16.8	13.0	15.6	143.3	533.5	3870.1	65.0	24.1		876.3	7.7

While not every veteran quarterback finishes as a QB1, many still provide solid fantasy value particularly in SuperFlex or 2QB leagues. In the past 10 years, there have been 34 instances where quarterbacks with 8 or more years of experience finished as QB2s (QB13–QB24 range) in fantasy points per game.

Compared to the QB1 tier, these quarterbacks saw a significant drop in production. One of the most noticeable differences:

• They averaged just 24 total touchdowns per season, a clear step down from the higher-output passers in the top 12.
• Fantasy Points Per Game down to 16.8

Interestingly, this tier may reflect a more realistic view of aging quarterbacks’ value in fantasy leagues outside of elite outliers like Tom Brady.

• Of the 34 QB2 seasons, 20 came from quarterbacks with 12 or more years of NFL experience.

This tells us that while these players may no longer carry weekly ceiling potential, they still offer stable floor production especially valuable in SuperFlex leagues where even mid-tier QBs are startable assets.

2025 Veteran QB Projections

There should be 12 starting quarterbacks to open as a day 1 starter with 8 or more years of experience.

Lamar Jackson – QB, Baltimore Ravens

• Fantasy Role: Potential Elite QB1
• 2025 Outlook: Defying regression models

Lamar Jackson is entering Year 8, typically the point where mobile quarterbacks begin to decline in rushing effectiveness. Yet Jackson has maintained top-5 fantasy finishes in back-to-back seasons, fueled by elite rushing and improved pocket presence.

In the last 10 years, no elite quarterback past Year 8 has posted more than 355 rushing yards, and even second-tier options tend to top out around 488 rushing yards. Can Jackson surpass both of those marks in 2025?. If he stays healthy, which he has managed well over the last two years, then another top-5 finish is within reach. The best comparison is Cam Newton (QB8 in Year 8), but Jackson has shown that he is a better passer, plus his rushing upside.

Josh Allen – QB, Buffalo Bills

• Fantasy Role: Elite QB1
• 2025 Outlook: Red zone monster/Data Breaker

Allen’s production may look a bit different than Jackson’s, but the results are just as impressive. Over the last two seasons, Allen has scored 27 rushing touchdowns which has keep his fantasy numbers elite.

What sets Allen apart is his consistent use in the red zone. He’s essentially a goal-line back with a cannon arm. Even with uncertainty at wide receiver, his dual-threat ability and red zone dominance make him a near-lock for top-5 fantasy output again in 2025.

While the weapons may not be elite on paper, Allen’s rushing TD upside and volume keep him squarely in the elite QB1 tier.

Baker Mayfield – QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Fantasy Role: Back-end QB1 / High QB2
• 2025 Outlook: A step back is coming

Mayfield was one of the biggest surprises of 2024, delivering an elite QB1 season. But there are reasons to expect regression:

• Tristan Wirfs is battling injuries on the offensive line.
• His top weapons, likely Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, are aging.
• While rookie Emeka Egbuka adds some juice, it’s unlikely to offset all concerns.

If Mayfield regresses to something like his 2023 form, he’s still serviceable in Superflex leagues. But the ceiling is capped. He’s a borderline QB1 with some volatility.

Sam Darnold – QB, Minnesota Vikings

• Fantasy Role: Fringe QB2 / avoid
• 2025 Outlook: 2024 Geno Smith ceiling, but likely much less

Darnold is trying to achieve a Geno Smith-like late-career success. Like Smith, Darnold may regress after a breakout season.

• He’s surrounded by lesser talent than he had back in Minnesota.
• Kevin O’Connell has been one of the best coaches for fantasy football, now moves to inconsistent play calling of Klint Kubiak.

His upside in 2025 is a low-end QB2 for fantasy football, with a slight risk of being replaced if everything goes wrong early in the season.

Returning Veteran QBs

We move to the early-to-mid 30s tier of QBs full of experienced names who can swing a SuperFlex league or stabilize a shaky QB2 slot. Let’s break down some of the most intriguing veteran options in this range heading into the 2025 fantasy season.

Patrick Mahomes – QB, Kansas City Chiefs (YEAR 9)

• Fantasy Role: Tier 2 QB1
• 2025 Outlook: Stable floor, elite potential in new-look offense

Mahomes enters Year 9, and this year has the 4th-highest FPPG among all the years. Over the past two seasons, Mahomes has fallen short of elite QB1 finishes due to a combination of his play, defensive dominance, and a less explosive offense.

That may change in 2025. With Rashee Rice and rookie Xavier Worthy giving him more dynamic weapons and Travis Kelce still contributing, Mahomes could bounce back into the upper tier of QB1s. He also provides underrated rushing stability, averaging 300+ yards on the ground for 5-straight seasons. Mahomes may be a little more risky, but he can continue to reach QB1 status with a glimpse of elite status.

Dak Prescott – QB, Dallas Cowboys (YEAR 10)

• Fantasy Role: Back-end QB1
• 2025 Outlook: Arrow pointing up

Prescott is quietly positioned for a potential return to top-tier fantasy status. Just 2 years removed from a top-5 FPPG finish, he now has CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens at receiver, along with a weaker run game that could push Dallas to be more pass-heavy.

If Prescott stays healthy and the offensive line holds up, a 20 FPPG season is within reach, making him a reliable low-end QB1 in Superflex leagues. While other Year 10 quarterbacks like Geno Smith & Kirk Cousins have reached that tier 2 QB1 status, Prescott should have a similar chance in 2025.

Jared Goff – QB, Detroit Lions (YEAR 10)

• Fantasy Role: High-end QB2
• 2025 Outlook: Stable but capped ceiling

Goff’s fantasy stock takes a hit after the departure of OC Ben Johnson, the architect behind his recent resurgence. Add in a run-first offensive identity and a tougher outdoor schedule in 2025, and it’s easy to project a step back.

Goff has consistently been a high-floor, low-ceiling QB2, and that should continue. Expect something in the ballpark of 18 FPPG, making him a solid Superflex play but lacking weekly upside to reach as high as his 2024 numbers.

Geno Smith – QB, Las Vegas Raiders (YEAR 13)

• Fantasy Role: Mid QB2
• 2025 Outlook: Clear downgrade from Seattle

Geno’s move to Las Vegas is a major downgrade in offensive support. The transition from D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba to Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers is stark. The system and supporting cast aren’t likely to maximize Smith’s strengths.

Unless his young pass catchers can breakout and the offensive line holds up, Geno likely settles into low-end QB2 territory. Smith doesn’t have the overall talent that some other players had in their 13th season in the league.

Russell Wilson – QB, New York Giants (YEAR 14)

• Fantasy Role: Avoid
• 2025 Outlook: On thin ice

Two years ago, Russ managed a QB13 finish in FPPG, but those days are long gone. He was average to poor with Pittsburgh in 2024 and now finds himself with the Giants, a team likely to pivot to a younger QB at the first sign of struggle.

Wilson may start Week 1, but his leash is short. The coaching staff is on thin ice in terms of winning games, so they may use any possible solution to secure victories, which may include benching Wilson if he underperforms.

One Final Season

Over the past 10 league years, the average fantasy points per game (FPPG) for quarterbacks has hovered around 19 FPPG, a number that places players on the borderline of QB1 territory in most fantasy leagues. That average includes seasons from future Hall-of-Fame quarterbacks. We have three aging veterans heading into 2025, which are Matthew Stafford, Joe Flacco, and Aaron Rodgers.

Matthew Stafford – QB, Los Angeles Rams (YEAR 17)

• Fantasy Role: High-end QB2
• 2025 Outlook: Boom-bust with health risk

Stafford arguably has the best offensive environment among the group, with a strong supporting cast featuring Davante Adams and Puka Nacua, as well as a solid run game. However, fantasy managers have observed a troubling trend: Stafford has failed to reach the QB1 average in each of the past two seasons, mainly due to nagging injuries and inconsistency.

Stafford is currently dealing with an aggravated disk, which has him on our injury radars. With an injury already considering him week-to-week, it’s hard to assume he’ll last a full season. You may want to stay clear and move off Stafford as a QB2-type quarterback.

Joe Flacco – QB, Cleveland Browns (YEAR 18)

• Fantasy Role: Low-End QB2
• 2025 Outlook: Volatile & Team Situation Unclear

Flacco’s story is unusual: he’s only logged 2 full seasons in his 30s, making it difficult to evaluate him on a typical aging QB curve. His performance late in 2023 was inspiring, but also misleading, as a few explosive games masked long-term concerns, including mobility issues, age (40), and system fit.

With the Browns potentially leaning on their defense and ground game, Flacco would need high passing volume or outlier efficiency to sniff QB2 value. He’s more of a break-glass-in-case-of-emergency SuperFlex starter and could be unseated depending on how the Browns handle the position long-term.

Aaron Rodgers – QB, Pittsburgh Steelers (YEAR 21)

• Fantasy Role: Safe QB2 / fantasy QB3 depth
• 2025 Outlook: Fading ceiling, uncertain floor

Rodgers is entering his 21st NFL season, a feat rarely matched outside of Tom Brady, and now leads a Steelers team with D.K. Metcalf as the only primary weapon. The offensive line remains a question mark, and the run game lacks proven talent, putting more pressure on Rodgers’ arm.

Despite better surroundings in 2024 (with Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams), Rodgers finished as a QB2, and that’s likely his ceiling this year as well. Fantasy managers should treat him as a mid-to-low QB2 in dynasty. Expect steady, but unspectacular, production unless the offense significantly overperforms.