There are plenty of words that you can use to describe the NFL career of Antonio Gibson so far, and not a lot of them match the hype dating back to when he was drafted. Entering his fourth season in Washington, could this finally be the year we see him break out for your dynasty rosters?
Plenty of factors are working against Gibson assuming the top running back role for the Commanders, with fellow back Brian Robinson being the top reason. But with Eric Bieniemy now calling the plays on offense, it certainly is in the cards that Gibson could take that next step.
2022 In Review
Last season was Gibson’s worst professional season, losing over 100 carries and almost 500 rushing yards. Robinson took over as the leading rusher for this team, relegating Gibson to the RB2 role with a passing-game upside.
What is a benefit to Gibson’s style of play is his pass-catching abilities, which he actually saw an uptick in involvement last season. Setting career marks in targets (58), receptions (46), and receiving yards (353) paints an efficient picture of what Gibson’s role is likely transitioning into moving forward.
A big part of Gibson’s decline in rushing work can also be tied to the type of offense the Commanders ran last season, which had to deal with inconsistent quarterback play from Carson Wentz and others. If you can’t keep games close, your rushing game script goes out the window, taking away a big part of what made Gibson successful.
Gibson’s 2021 season looked to be the year he established himself as one of the better dual-threat backs in the league, rushing for over 1,000 yards and hauling in over 40 passes. But Washington mightily struggled when it comes to creating a consistent offensive attack, which Gibson has had to deal with his entire professional career.
2023 Outlook
It shouldn’t be surprising to know that Gibson likely will not see a huge uptick in his running game work, if any. With Robinson in tow and still looking like the best rusher of the ball on the team, Bieniemy will likely lean on Robinson for that role, even though Bieniemy’s track record does suggest he prefers a two-headed approach.
Anyone paying attention knew this was a stone-cold lock all offseason.
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) July 26, 2023
More interesting Q to me is how much base work can Antonio Gibson earn, and will he have any role around the goal-line?
JD McKissic averaged just 4.4 carries per game in three years with #Commanders. https://t.co/4Hi6ZYuDm4
Gibson has gone on record this offseason about his expected role, explaining that he likely will hold down a third-down role for Washington this year. In a nutshell, this makes it sound like Gibson’s role is heavily shrinking. This anecdote means that Gibson’s strengths are more catered to in the offense, which can help him put up better numbers than last season.
There is no sound projection for Gibson that any analyst can truly rely on at this part of the offseason. But knowing the track record for Gibson’s usage in the past, combined with how Bieniemy typically utilizes backs, you have the makings of a pass-oriented role that will still see its fair share of carries too.
Current Dynasty Trade Value
- Antonio Gibson for Devin Singletary and Gabriel Davis
- Antonio Gibson and 2024 first for Nick Chubb
- Antonio Gibson for AJ Dillon
Gibson’s value is truly all over the board, making him incredibly tough to accurately value.
On the one hand, rosters will value Gibson with what he’s done so far in the league, relying on his dual-threat abilities and still holding onto his upside ceiling, probably overvaluing him in the process.
On the other hand, rosters will value Gibson more in a negative fashion, understanding that, with Robinson on the team, Gibson will never climb into that true RB1 role. His comments demonstrating his passing-game role will undoubtedly limit his ceiling, and anyone looking at Gibson this way won’t look at him kindly.
Of these three completed deals, the first one has the most interesting return. Shipping out Gibson for a return of an RB2 and a WR2 is selling high – if you want to move off of Gibson, this is the type of deal you should be searching for.
Final Thoughts
There is still a lot of uncertainty surrounding Gibson and his role entering this season, yet you know exactly what kind of player he is and what he brings to the table. The Commanders still need to answer quite a few questions about their offense, including how they plan on using Gibson.
If you prefer to move Gibson, I definitely cannot fault you for doing so. But if you want to ride things out, you must remain patient on Gibson.
And one final thing – quit calling him ‘Gibby.’
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