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Attack the 2024 Rookie Draft: 2.03

Where to draft Michael Penix? Next up in our Attack the Draft series is @TheSmingDynasty with rookie pick 2.03.

In the Attack the Draft series for the Dynasty Nerds, the staff will take a rookie draft pick-by-pick and evaluate who they would select. Each pick will account for other players on the board, how the team build can affect the pick and possibly change the pick, and also the pick’s trade value.

We are operating under the assumption that the league is a SuperFlex league with a tight end-premium scoring format.

The 2.03 Pick

Time to Attack the Draft!

SEATTLE, WA - SEPTEMBER 03:  Washington Huskies quarterback Michael Penix Jr. (9) drops back to pass during a NCAA non-conference football game between the Kent State Golden Flashes and the Washington Huskies on September 3, 2022 at Husky Stadium in Seattle, WA. (Photo by Jeff Halstead/Icon Sportswire) ATTACK THE DRAFT
Photo Courtesy of Jeff Halstead/Icon Sportswire

No team upended the calm consistency of the 2024 NFL Draft like the Atlanta Falcons. With the eighth pick, the Atlanta Falcons selected Michael Penix, Jr. from the Washington Huskies. Even weeks later, the football world is abuzz with the controversial selection.

Everyone playing dynasty fantasy football knows the score here. It’s Superflex. You’re getting a quarterback selected in the top ten of the NFL Draft. The quarterback is going to an offense paired with Bijan Robinson, Kyle Pitts, and Drake London. (Also, Rondale Moore and Darnell Mooney?)

It all sounds so perfect. Who wouldn’t want to draft Penix with an early rookie pick? Enter Kirk Cousins and $100 million in guaranteed money. Are you still interested? Yes, you should be!

It is often said that the NFL stands for “Not For Long,” which may be the case here. I assure you that wide receivers like Keon Coleman enter the NFL each season, and running backs like Trey Benson are drafted every single year.

How often do teams draft first-round quarterbacks?

How often do teams draft a quarterback in the top ten of the NFL Draft?

There are only 32 starting quarterbacks. In a typical Superflex league with 12 teams, that means several of your competitors don’t roster three startable quarterbacks. It is also important to look at the greater dynasty landscape. While the 2024 class was full of draftable quarterbacks, the 2025 class looks barren in comparison. Were you burned by the Malik Willis and Kenny Pickett draft in 2022? 2025 may be similar.

Quarterbacks are the easiest cheat code in winning your Superflex league. Draft Penix here at 2.03. Even if you can’t play him this year, you can get the Xavier Legettes of the football world next year.

Who Else Should You Consider?

Okay, let me take off my rose-colored quarterback glasses for a moment. Even if we think Penix somehow finds his way onto the playing field in the next year or two, we still won’t know if he will be good. To be sure, he is not a perfect, sure-fire pick.

Several players of similar value are available here that you can use much sooner than Penix – namely Xavier Legette, Ricky Pearsall, Keon Coleman, and Adonai Mitchell.

Should You Trade 2.03?

Given the four wide receivers I listed above, yes. I would try to trade down into the middle of the second round. To stay in the same tier, I wouldn’t go below 2.07. What to add on? I would try to get an extra third-round pick to take a chance on a running back like Kimani Vidal or a second wide receiver like Javon Baker.

If you still want to land a rookie quarterback, you could go in a different direction with the extra third and take Spencer Rattler. While Rattler may ultimately turn into nothing, the reality is that he may get on the field before Penix does.

The Final Word

The Penix pick will be debated in the months and years to come. Accordingly, he is a difficult player to value in your rookie draft. His selection in the second round of our Attack the Draft series hammers that point home. He may prove to be the truest test of patience for dynasty managers. When would you be willing to draft Michael Penix? Do you agree with our guys on the podcast? Let me know in the comments.

Looking for more draft ideas? Try our DynastyGM Trade Browser or the DynastyGM Trade Calculator. Best of luck drafting!

Get ready for your rookie draft with the DynastyGM!! Rankings, trade calculator, league analyzer, and much more. Just $4.99/month, or better yet, bundle with the Nerd Herd for just $6.99/month and get extra podcasts, the Dynasty Prospect Film Room, and more.

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