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Attack the 2024 Rookie Draft: 2.06

Midway through the second round, finding a player with fantasy value is a dart throw. Buffalo has targets to go around and Keon Coleman could be the WR1 quickly.

In this series for the Dynasty Nerds, the staff will take a rookie draft pick-by-pick and evaluate who they would select. Each pick will take into account other players on the board, how the team build can affect the pick and possibly change the pick, and also the trade value of the pick.

We are operating under the assumption that the league is a SuperFlex league with a tight end-premium scoring format.

1.01Caleb WilliamsQBUSCBears
1.02Marvin Harrison Jr.WROhio StateCardinals
1.03Jayden DanielsQBLSUCommanders
1.04Malik NabersWRLSUGiants
1.05J.J. McCarthyQBMichiganVikings
1.06Brock BowersTEGeorgiaRaiders
1.07Rome OdunzeWRWashingtonBears
1.08Drake MayeQBUNCPatriots
1.09Brian Thomas Jr.WRLSUJaguars
1.10Xavier WorthyWRTexasChiefs
1.11Jonathon BrooksRBTexasPanthers
1.12Trey BensonRBFlorida StCardinals
2.01Ladd McConkeyWRGeorgiaChargers
2.02Bo NixQBOregonBroncos
2.03Michael PenixQBWashingtonFalcons
2.04Xavier LegetteWRSouth CarolinaPanthers
2.05Ricky PearsallWRFlorida49ers

The 2.06 Pick

I started the draft with superstar tight end Brock Bowers at 1.06. With the 2.06, I’m selecting Florida State receiving phenom Keon Coleman.

Before the 2023 season, Coleman was considered one of the top two wide receivers in the 2024 rookie class. After the 2023 season, he was considered a top-five wide receiver–then he ran the 40-yard dash. At the combine, Coleman ran a 4.61 and all but sunk his fantasy draft stock. However, he posted the fastest time through the receiving gauntlet and looked like the most polished of the bunch.

@nflonfox

Catching passes at 20mph is insane 😳 #nfl #keoncoleman #buffalobills

♬ original sound – NFLonFOX

Coleman was selected 33rd overall in the NFL draft by the Buffalo Bills to replace the vacated targets left by the offseason departures of Gabriel Davis (JAX) and Stefon Diggs (HOU). Curtis Samuel was signed from Washington to try on Diggs’ cleats for this season, but there is plenty of opportunity for Coleman to be the top target earner. 

The Bills need a big-bodied alpha WR in the red zone to come down with the ball in clutch moments. Standing at 6’3″ inches with 32″ arms and a vertical jump of 38″, Coleman is capable of catching a ball over 11′ above the ground. Yes, please!

Player personality isn’t important to most managers. But occasionally, a player rises through the ranks to become a fantasy darling based on their social media or team interviews (players on the Hard Knocks television series often get personality bumps). Coleman is THAT dude. His interviews have gone viral because of his humor, humility, and overall cheery disposition. There’s a good chance managers will send trade offers for Coleman before Week 1 because they’ll want “the cool dude” on their squad.

@nfloncbs

Keon Coleman needs a few more coats now that he’s in Buffalo ❄️ (🎥: Matthew Bove) #buffalobills #fyp #keoncoleman #shoppinghaul

♬ original sound – NFL on CBS

Who Else Should You Consider?

In a Superflex league, there will only be wide receivers and running backs on the board at 2.06. Unless my league has unique scoring or roster restrictions, I will draft the highest-valued player, regardless of position. Rarely will I take a position of need in a rookie draft unless it aligns with my overall rankings. For the most part, rookie WRs with high draft capital will retain their value longer than RBs. Coleman has the best landing spot and invested draft capital of the remaining players on the board.

There’s validity to drafting a second-tier RB over a WR in the second round. If the RB class is shallow and the WR class is deep, scooping up the rare commodities isn’t a bad idea. If I were to go with an RB here, it would be Marshawn Lloyd. I believe he will have a role alongside Josh Jacobs. He could be the top backfield option for the Green Bay Packers as early as next season.

Should You Trade the 2.06?

Yes. I’m a proponent of moving around the draft board–as more of a calibrating robotic vacuum than a conveyor belt of suggested values. The 2.06 is the perfect pick to trade away, but in which direction should you go?

Move Up

I like a lot of the talent that gets drafted 1.09-2.04. In order, Ladd McConkey, Jonathan Brooks, Xavier Worthy, Michael Penix Jr., Bo Nix, Ricky Pearsall, Brian Thomas Jr., and Xavier Legette. Notice that Coleman isn’t among those names. I’d be willing to give up a future 2025 second-round rookie pick on top of the 2.06 to move up until everyone but Thomas Jr. and Legette have been selected. Each time a new manager is on the clock, I’ll send the offer and see what counter (if any) I receive. 

There’s a belief that 2.07 represents a tier break in rookie talent. People are willing to move back starting at 1.09 if they miss out on their top target(s). A manager wanting an RB may miss on Jonathan Brooks and be willing to take the last of Benson, Lloyd, and Blake Corrum. Those are the trade partners most willing to move back to 2.06.

Move Back

Some of my colleagues mentioned the talent drop-off during the mid-second round. Consensus rankings would certainly suggest as much. Thankfully, we don’t draft with consensus. We draft with emotional, cocky, smarter-than-you blowhard dynasty fantasy football managers (all lovely humans). 

In real rookie drafts, three to six players outside of the consensus rankings will likely be taken before 2.06. If talent is pushed down the board, drop back a few spots for an extra third or 2025 second and take who falls to you.

Move Out

The 2024 rookie class was said to be lacking in talent prior to the NFL draft. Bo Nix wasn’t expected to be a first-round quarterback. No running back was thought of as a first-round talent. The wide receiver class was supposed to be deep but have very little drop-off. There are plenty of reasons to believe the players from 2.03-3.03 are interchangeable, and none offer true fantasy production upside.

I wouldn’t fault any rebuilding manager for simply trading the 2.06 for a 2025 second and third. Competing managers may look to trade it away for a veteran like Mike Evans, Cooper Kupp, or Derrick Henry. If you need to sweeten the deal with a 2025 third-round pick or a late 2024 fourth–pish posh.

Final Word

The 2.06 in this year’s draft is a better trade piece than a stick-and-pick selection. I prefer to move up for McConkey, Penix, or Brooks, depending on which of the three falls farthest.

My goal this season is to acquire a first-round value player at the 2.06. If I can’t move up, I’ll draft the player I feel has the best chance to be worth a first-round rookie pick before Week 1. When the Coleman hype train picks up steam, he can be packaged in a trade for a proven WR or flipped for profitable draft capital. The only deal better than Coleman at 2.06 in this draft is a Macy’s winter coat in mid-July.

Get the Dynasty Nerds app in the Apple and Google Play stores. Mock drafts for Superflex, 1QB, and Standard. If you are a DynastyGM subscriber, it even syncs with your actual teams so that you can do rookie mock drafts with ALL of your actual picks, also on your desktop.

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