AJ Brown came over via a draft day trade with the Tennessee Titans and the Philadelphia Eagles. It was a stunning trade that no one saw coming. The Titans wound up with a first-round pick that became Treylon Burks. The Eagles got a star wide receiver that needed a new contract, although he would prove in year one that he’s worth that contract. Brown led the Eagles in nearly every receiving category as he raised his best friend, Jalen Hurts’ play throughout the season. The Eagles got their franchise wide receiver that could raise the play of the entire offense. That will continue in 2023.
2022 Season Recap
AJ Brown came from the Titans to the Eagles and destroyed all expectations. Everyone expected him to do well if he was healthy, but no one thought he would blow his career norms out of the water. The Eagles made a great trade during the 2022 NFL Draft by dealing a first-round pick for him. Brown jump-started this Eagles’ offense and lifted it and Hurts to new heights. Over 17 games, his first full season since 2019, Brown caught 88 passes of the 145 targets for 1,496 yards and 11 touchdowns. He was an All-Pro Second Team and a Pro Bowler.
Brown was a lethal downfield threat averaging 17 yards per reception. His combination of speed and agility dominated opposing defenders. He was second in the NFL in yards after the catch showcasing how hard it was for defenses to bring him down. Brown gobbled up yards with the second-highest yards per route run (3.01) and yards per pass attempt (2.79) and was fifth in points per route run (0.60). It was a dominant first season in Philly for the former Ole Miss wideout.
2023 Season Projections
AJ Brown is set up for another season similar to last year. It isn’t likely he will get back to 17 yards per catch just because of how high that is. However, the 26-year-old receiver will still be one of the best wide receivers in both the NFL and fantasy. Brown will continue to be targeted a ton by his good friend Hurts. His deep range of targets lends to more fantasy points, as it’s easier for him to gain a lot of yards.
Perhaps, the only issue that could stop Brown from being a top-twelve wide receiver would be an injury to him or Hurts. Brown certainly has a history of injuries. Prior to 2022, he had missed seven games over the prior two seasons. Still, AJ Brown has a secure floor of at least 12-14 points per game. His ceiling is that of Justin Jefferson. If Brown sneaks into the end-zone more or can raise his targets and catches while maintaining his 17 yards per catch, then averaging 19 or 20 points isn’t out of the threshold of realistic outcomes. There are not many better wide receivers to have on your team if you want to win this year than AJ Brown.
Long-Term Dynasty Outlook
AJ Brown is only entering his age-26 season. He’s under contract for a long time with Philadelphia. That ensures he has a stable floor, provided he’s healthy. Brown has a positive long-term value outlook with how Hopkins and other “older” wide receivers staying extremely effective into their early thirties. He could have five to seven more prime years left. If you’re contending for the next three years, you want Brown. He’s worth the two firsts that you’d have to pay. After all, if you can pair him with a Chase, Jefferson, or even Hill, you would have the best wide receiver duo in your dynasty league.
If you’re entering a rebuild, sell Brown for two firsts. It makes no sense to hold onto him. He’ll score far too much, and if he gets hurt, you just lost a ton of value. Sell him now before any issues can arise. AJ Brown is a terrific wide receiver who will continue to be one of the best in the NFL and fantasy. The Eagles and your contending dynasty team should be very happy having him on your roster.
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As always, May the Force be with You…