It seems like any season Mike Evans plays, he will have at least 1,000 receiving yards. Since his rookie season with the Buccaneers in 2014, Evans has posted at least 1,000 yards. It’s become a routine expectation as he approaches his age-29 season. All good streaks end at some point, so will it end this year? Evans has been the most reliable fantasy wide receiver for nearly the past decade. He isn’t flashy, but you can be confident he will finish as a WR1 or high-end WR2 every year. In what could be quarterback Tom Brady’s final season with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers or in the NFL, can they keep Evan’s streak going?
2021 Season Recap
As I said, Evans finished once again as a WR1 in fantasy football. He was the ninth highest scoring WR. Evans appeared in 16 games. Mike Evans got 114 targets, caught 74 of them, and had 1,035 yards. He added in 14 touchdowns. The Pro-Bowler has raised his catch percentage quite a bit over the last two years with Brady. Before Brady, he was averaging a 56% catch rate. With Brady, he has been above 64%. That’s what an elite QB does for a WR. To speak to his reliability, he has 75 touchdowns over eight seasons; that’s an average of over nine per season. You want a WR that WR, despite being vastly underrated.
2022 Season Projections
I expect Evans to have another fantastic season in what could sadly be Brady’s final NFL season. Yes, Chris Godwin might miss a game or two to start the season. It might take time to get Godwin going again. There’s no more Gronk. Julio Jones is there now and could take targets if he’s healthy. The Bucs paid Russell Gage a bunch of money. Lenny Fournette is still at running back. However, Evans has always gotten his looks. Evans hasn’t had under 109 targets in his career, and that isn’t changing now. I expect Julio and Godwin to miss a couple of games while the TEs get fewer targets with Gronk gone.
Due to those missing games, I expect Evans to have his largest target workload with Brady yet. I projected him to continue catching passes near that 64% rate while racking up the touchdowns. It seems like Brady only has eyes for Evans in the red zone. I don’t have Evans missing any games because he rarely does. Due to that, his PPR average is 16.3 ppg. That’s well in the range of a WR1 finish. I fully expect Evans to continue being a dominant NFL WR in 2022. There’s just no obvious case as to why he wouldn’t be.
Buy/Sell Mike Evans?
Evans is a definite buy if you’re a contender. I know he puts up WR1 numbers, but if you could acquire him to be your WR2, then oh man, is that a loaded WR room for your roster. Evans will never lose you weeks unless he faces the Saints, then maybe. However, he routinely puts up points. I know he’s going for a first-round pick plus something else like a second, but I would take that. Evans is worth that price. He’s 29 and will have at least three more prime years. His lack of injury history protects his price. It increases the likelihood he won’t suddenly become injury prone. He’s a perfect WR for a team that wants to win right now.
If you’re rebuilding, sell Evans. Not sure why you would have him on your roster still. He’s going to play far too much and score way too many points. He’s the opposite of what you want in a rebuild. Sell him and get those picks or young players. See if you can buy Devonta Smith or Drake London with Evans. Just don’t hold on to Evans and screw up your rebuild.
Evans might be entering his last season with Brady at QB. That means you better enjoy the greatness one more time. Evans will be a dominant WR this year. He’s going to finish as a WR1. Expect at least 1,000 yards and ten touchdowns. Buy him if you’re competing. There are not many WRs I’d want right now to win over Evans. Don’t hold onto him if you’re rebuilding. That 1,000-yard season streak might end someday, but it won’t be this year.
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As always, May the Force be with You…
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