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Changing the Call: Quarterback Start/Sits Week 11

Is Jimmy G poised for a muy caliente Monday in Mexico? Will Kenny Pickett breakout against the Bengals? @Spydes78 brings you these answers and more in the Week 11 installment of Changing the Call, a weekly start/sit guide to fantasy QBs. Check it out!⬇️

Huddle up, Nerds! You’ve looked to your favorite dynasty site to guide you through the spring and summer months, but a strong offseason alone will not win you a championship. No matter how talented your roster is, you’ll need to make the right lineup decisions to wrestle glory from your league mates.  

But have no fear! Your Dynasty Nerds writers are here to shepherd you through the minefield of starts and sits. Our staff will make recommendations each week to aid in your lineup decision-making. Look for the position-specific columns below to guide you to dynasty grandeur. 

Follow us, friend us, and tweet us. We look forward to hearing from you! 

NOTE: Rankings are based on a 12-team PPR league. So, saying WR2 means top 24, or TE1 means top 12, etc., and are pulled from Fantasy Pros consensus expert rankings.

About Last Week…

Previous Week Record: 1-3

Season Long Record: 27-13

Week 10 Starts

It was an all-around tough week for Changing the Call. The lone bright spot came from Jacoby Brissett, who passed for 212 yards and rushed for another 40 against the Dolphins. With only one touchdown, his fantasy point total did not eclipse 20. However, the effort was still sufficient to beat his FantasyPros ECR by five spots, making him a valuable start.

Andy Dalton, however, was not quite so fortunate. Despite some strong statistics and what appeared to be a favorable matchup, the ‘Red Rifle’ looked more like a cap gun against the Steelers. His four-turnover performance was, in fact, so bad that the rumblings for him to be replaced by Jameis Winston have now reached a fever pitch. This recommendation was a distinct miss.

Week 10 Sits

My ‘sit’ suggestions were, unfortunately, equally as flawed. I had reservations about Dak Prescott heading into a hostile Lambeau Field against a tough defense. The Packers prevailed, holding Prescott to a lackluster four for twelve with a pair of interceptions on critical third and fourth down tries. However, Prescott managed a trio of touchdowns, an element previously missing from his game in 2022. This scoring outburst propelled the Cowboy starter to a Top 10 finish, thus sinking my recommendation.

Meanwhile, Daniel Jones fell flat in North Jersey just as I suspected he might against an underrated Texans secondary. Jones tallied fewer than 200 yards on 17 passing attempts and was sacked three times by Houston. He did, however, thread a pair of scores to bolster his fantasy total to a 14th-place finish on the week. Though not exactly stellar, this finish exceeded his weekly FantasyPros ranking of 16th, making this sit suggestion a narrow miss as well.

WEEK 11 STARTS

Jimmy Garoppolo, SF (FantasyPros Wk11 ECR: 11)

Jimmy G takes a lot of heat in fantasy circles. People call him a caretaker quarterback, question his upside, and even suggest that at 31 years old that his best days are behind him. However, one thing you cannot dispute: the guy gets the job done.  

On Sunday night against the Chargers, Garoppolo passed for 240 yards to lead the Niners to victory against their in-state opponent. Since coming off the bench in Week 2, he has willed San Francisco to a record of 5-3, contending for a division championship. The Niners have averaged 236.3 passing yards per game, qualifying them as a Top 10 passing unit. The late October addition of standout running back Christian McCaffrey has only served to bolster an already impressive collection of weapons.

On Monday, the ascending Niners will head south of the border to square off with division foe Arizona in Mexico City. The Cardinals’ pass defense seems ill-equipped to slow down their opponent. They have allowed an uninspired average of 247.1 passing yards per game. From a fantasy perspective, they’ve surrendered 19.0 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. This qualifies them as the sixth most porous unit in the league.

The game currently features a modest over/under of 43.5, with the Niners favored by a robust eight points. That means the oddsmakers feel like San Francisco will be flirting with a four-touchdown effort. Take heed and get Jimmy G in your lineup for some Monday night mayhem from Mexico.

Joe Burrow, CIN (FantasyPros Wk11 ECR: 6)

Things have not quite gone as planned for the reigning AFC champions. The Bengals’ slow start continued a long, unfortunate tradition of Super Bowl hangovers. However, winners of five of their last seven, Cincinnati suddenly finds themselves back in the hunt for a vulnerable AFC North.  

When we last saw the Bengals, they were waxing a feeble Carolina squad heading into a Week 10 bye. In that one-sided affair, Burrow posted a pair of scores and emerged with a quarterback rating of 109.2. And lest you think that was a one-time fluke against a weak opponent, consider that Joe Shiesty ranks fourth overall on the season with an average weekly fantasy output of 22.8. Even the loss of top wideout Jamar Chase has not slowed Burrow, who was PFF’s top-graded quarterback in Week 9.

In Week 11, a well-rested Burrow will make the short trip to Pittsburgh for a divisional showdown. An engagement that in years gone by might have been a source of trepidation instead looks like a sight for sore eyes. The once-vaunted Steelers’ defense has fallen off in a major way in 2022. Coughing up 263.9 passing yards per game, Pittsburgh ranks 30th in the NFL. They have allowed an eye-catching 18.6 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Burrow has to be looking forward to this one.

At the time of writing, the road Bengals are favored by four in this game. Oddsmakers seem to be weighing the same lopsided statistics in their forecast. Take advantage of a nice matchup for Joe Burrow and get him into your Week 10 lineup against the Steelers.

WEEK 11 SITS

Derek Carr, LVR (FantasyPros Wk11 ECR: 13)

The Josh McDaniels era in Las Vegas has been tough to stomach. Two wins past the season’s midpoint and a firm grasp on last place is likely not what Raiders owner Mark Davis had in mind when he hired the Bill Belichick understudy. Vegas has been downright awful, last week losing at home to an interim skipper with zero coaching pedigree. The loss was so brutal that their quarterback, Derek Carr, was nearly brought to tears when facing reporters after the game.

Statistically, Carr has quite a bit to lament. They’ve been able to move the ball, ranking 12th with 228.6 passing yards per game. However, things routinely fall apart in the red zone. Through nine games, Carr is a pathetic 18 for 44 (40.9%) inside the 20, with just seven touchdowns. This inability to punch it in has significantly capped Carr’s upside as a fantasy asset. His 15.4 fantasy points per game ranks 23rd amongst eligible passers.

A fortune reversal is not likely for Carr and the Raiders when they visit Denver in Week 11. The Broncos have also dealt with their fair share of disappointment in 2022. However, one area has been stellar from the jump: their ability to shut down the passing game. Allowing just 16.6 total points per game, no one shores up their own end zone better than Denver. This makes tough sledding for quarterbacks who average just 10.4 fantasy points per game against the Broncos.

With the Broncos favored and a low over/under of 41.5, don’t look for many points scored by either of these struggling offenses. Certainly avoid Carr in what figures to be a divisional slugfest, light on points and heavy on frustration.

Kenny Pickett, PIT (FantasyPros Wk11 ECR: 21)

Back to Pittsburgh, we go. However, this time we’ll take a look at the struggling Steelers. First-round selection Kenny Pickett’s first season has been seasoned with the type of challenge that is to be anticipated for a rookie signal caller. Pittsburgh currently ranks 24th in the league, averaging fewer than 200 yards per game through the air. Over five starts, Pickett has managed just two touchdown passes while tossing five interceptions. His pedestrian PFF grade of 62.6 ranks 31st in the NFL.

The visiting Bengals do not figure to make life any easier for the young QB. Over their last three games, Cincinnati has allowed just 188.7 passing yards and 1.3 touchdowns per game. The Bengals have the 4th most imposing defense for quarterbacks, giving up an average of just 12.4 fantasy points per contest. Don’t bet on chunk plays against this defense.

You can see a mismatch projected in the gambling lines for the upcoming Sunday afternoon showdown. The road Bengals are favored, as mentioned earlier. Additionally, there are individual player props for Kenny Pickett to throw for 215.5 yards and 0.5 interceptions. These are not inspiring numbers and should tell you all you need to know about Pickett’s potential pitfalls against a division rival.

The jury is still out on Kenny Pickett as a long-term investment. He is enduring the NFL’s brutal on-the-job training regimen, like so many rookie quarterbacks that came before him. This bench recommendation is more about the immediate than an indictment of his eventual potential. For now, let the kid take his lumps. But don’t count on production when facing a tenacious Bengals opponent.

In Closing…

I thoroughly enjoyed bringing you this piece and would love to continue the conversation on quarterback start/sits. Please feel free to comment below or contact me @Spydes78 on Twitter. And also, stay tuned to @DynastyNerds for a steady pipeline of content from our eminently qualified staff to carry you through your season. If you like what you read, please consider becoming a subscriber to any of the elite tools that Dynasty Nerds has to offer. Make sure to use the promo code “SPYDES” to receive a 15% discount. Thanks for reading and enjoy the grind!

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