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Changing the Call: Quarterback Start/Sits Week 2

Week 2 of the NFL season is almost here! In the second installment of his weekly QB Start/Sit column,
@Spydes78 recaps Week 1 and tells you which signal callers will stay hot. The play clock is ticking down, so check it out!

Hey Nerds! The Dynasty Nerds writers are here to provide you with weekly starts and sits. We will be making our recommendations based on weekly consensus PPR rankings from FantasyPros. Here is our squad and the position groups they will be covering to help you each week. Follow us, friend us, tweet us.

We look forward to hearing from you!

NOTE: Rankings are based on a 12-team PPR league. So, saying WR2 means top 24, or TE1 means top 12, etc., are pulled from Fantasy Pros consensus expert rankings.

About Last Week…

Previous Week Record: 2-2

Season Long Record: 2-2

Week 1 Starts

Kyler Murray turned out to be a great play, scoring the most fantasy points among quarterbacks in Week 1.  Murray should continue his ascension and be considered an elite option as the season continues to unfold.

However, Lamar Jackson came up short, registering only 235 passing yards in a Monday night thriller against the Raiders.  Despite his obvious athleticism, Jackson and the Ravens found themselves leaving Las Vegas with little to show for their effort.

Week 1 Sits

Sitting Justin Herbert was perhaps my boldest recommendation from Week 1.  But after an interception and two sacks against a bruising Washington defense, the Chargers young star ended up in the bottom quarter of fantasy quarterbacks in Week 1.  

Unfortunately, my recommendation to sit Jared Goff was not quite as solid.  After the Niners got out to a huge lead, Goff was able to spur a rousing comeback that fell just short of the mark.  His heroics landed him unexpectedly near the top of eligible quarterbacks in Week 1.

STARTS

(Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)

Tom Brady

Love him or hate him, Old Man Brady continues his relentless assault on the NFL.  In a primetime Week 1 matchup with Dallas, Brady posted the fifth-most fantasy points among quarterbacks.  PFF assigned his effort a grade of 93.0, the best among passers in the season’s openers.  He has an arsenal of skilled weapons at his disposal, including Antonio Brown, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, and Rob Gronkowski.  

In Week 2, Brady and the Bucs will host an Atlanta Falcons defense that looked woefully inept against the Eagles.  This is a continuation of an established trend whereby Atlanta surrendered the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks in 2020.

The sportsbooks are already wise to this matchup discrepancy.  Early in the week, Tampa was installed as a 12 point favorite with an over/under of 52 total points.  The sharps are anticipating that Brady and the Bucs will score a lot of points in a blowout victory.  Take advantage of this intel and start Brady in Week 2 with confidence.

(Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images)

Russell Wilson

Coming into the season, the Indianapolis Colts were regarded as a formidable defense.  Big names like Deforest Buckner and Darius Leonard headline the daunting unit.  However, when Russell Wilson came to Indy in Week 1, he carved up that Colts defense en route to a comfortable victory.  If there were any concerns about Seattle taking a prohibitive turn toward the run game in 2021, Wilson seemed to put them to rest with his top 10 finish in Week 1.

Look forward on the schedule to Week 2, and you’ll see that the Seahawks will return to the comfortable confines of Seattle’s Lumen Field to host a struggling Titans squad.  As I mentioned previously, Tennessee surrendered the most fantasy points in the league to their Week 1 opponent, Kyler Murray.  Lest you think that Week 1 was simply a fluke, I would point out that Tennessee also coughed up the 5th most points to quarterbacks across all of 2020.  The trends speak for themselves here.

Tennessee got out to a disappointing start in 2021, and they appear to be a team in turmoil early on.  A cross-country trip to face a hot Seahawks team does not bode well for a team looking to get off the schneid. Wilson is typically a strong fantasy option, and this particular matchup should have you feeling good about deploying him in your lineup this week.

SITS

(Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images)

Zach Wilson

As the number 2 overall pick of the 2021 NFL Draft class, Zach Wilson brings an air of optimism to a Jets franchise in sore need of a lift.  In Week 1, Wilson was unable to will New York to a victory.  However, he afforded himself with 258 yards passing and two touchdowns in his NFL debut against the Panthers.  His effort qualified him among the middle tier of fantasy QBs and was an encouraging sign for dynasty enthusiasts.

Unfortunately, a difficult matchup with the Patriots looms for Wilson in Week 2.  Despite a mediocre season (by Patriot standards), New England still qualified as the seventh most stingy defensive unit against quarterbacks in 2020.  Schematically, the Patriots picked right up where they left off last season by holding Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins to a meager 202 yards through the air in Week 1.

Wilson has tremendous upside and a potentially bright future ahead as part of a potentially historic quarterback class.  However, in the immediate, I have every faith that Bill Belichick will gameplan to challenge the young signal-caller.  The low over/under of 43 points tells me that the bookmakers are anticipating a low-scoring affair.  And the fact that New England is favored by 5.5 means that the endzone is more likely a no-fly zone for the Jets.  Give the rookie a week off and look elsewhere for Week 2 contributors.

(Photo by Jeffrey Brown/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Carson Wentz

If you are familiar with my work, you’ll probably be shocked to see this particular recommendation.  I have been a steadfast supporter of Wentz and have frequently espoused my belief that his relocation to Indianapolis will rejuvenate a promising career.  However, the circumstances of this matchup give me some very real concerns.

In Week 1, Carson and the Colts were soundly defeated by the Seattle Seahawks.  In that contest, Wentz was frequently under duress and forced to make off-platform throws.  The Indy offensive line, anticipated to be a position of strength, looked porous from the jump.  Earning an average PFF grade of 62.4, the protection from the offensive line was not good enough to win.

In Week 2, the Colts will be forced to right the ship on their protection concerns against none other than reigning Defensive Player of the Year, Aaron Donald, and the L.A. Rams.  Los Angeles put a sound thumping on a bewildered Andy Dalton in Week 1, surrendering the fewest fantasy points to an opposing quarterback.

Colts wideout T.Y. Hilton remains sidelined by injury, leaving a receiving corps of talented but unproven pass catchers.  Even if you discount the lack of experience, you cannot dismiss that Wentz is still working to establish a rapport with his team after missing a significant portion of camp due to a fluke foot injury.

Poor offensive line play, an imposing defense, and instability in the passing game does not sound like a recipe for success.  I still anticipate big things for Wentz and the Colts in the long run, but it’s not reasonable to expect top-level productivity this week.  Find a better option and wait until this offense is clicking before you depend on them.

In Closing…

I thoroughly enjoyed bringing you this piece and would love to continue the conversation on quarterback start/sits.  Please feel free to comment below or contact me @Spydes78 on Twitter.  And also, stay tuned to @DynastyNerds for a steady pipeline of content from our eminently qualified staff to carry you through your season.  If you like what you read, please consider becoming a subscriber to any of the elite tools that Dynasty Nerds has to offer.  Make sure to use the promo code “SPYDES” to receive a 15% discount.  Thanks for reading, and enjoy the grind!

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