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Devy: Buy Or Sell

@TheHQNerd pops in with some players to buy or sell in devy according to their current ADP.

Taking advantage of the market is an essential strategy in all aspects of dynasty. In devy, it’s critical to be ahead of the curve to forecast a player’s outlook. The focus is to try and find players who will transfer over to our dynasty rosters. Projection plays a crucial role when playing devy. We aren’t always going to hit on these players, and there will be a lot of misses. We can slim down on the misses by using key stats and traits that translate to the NFL.

I’ve taken the ADP from four different devy drafts this offseason to see who stands out as a buy or sell at their current price point. Two of the drafts come from actual startup leagues I’m in. The other two come courtesy of the Devy Deep Dive community, with some of the best devy minds in the business, run by Brandon Lejeune (@DevyDeepDive).

The ADP referenced will be the average of the four drafts mentioned above. All of the data is based on a 12 team league.

Without further ado, let’s get to it, NerdHerd, and find out who we should be buying and selling in devy right now.

Jase McClellan, RB Alabama

Last year at this time, McClellan was an up-and-coming devy riser. His 2021 season, unfortunately, ended early due to a knee injury that would require surgery. Brian Robinson would ultimately be the beneficiary of McClellan’s injury leading the Crimson Tide to the National Championship game.

Fast forward to the 2022 offseason, and McClellan now has major obstacles standing in his way. One, He’s still behind in returning to the field, working his way back from his knee injury. The other is the uber-talented Jahmyr Gibbs transferring to Alabama via Georgia Tech. The Tide are deep at the position despite Camar Wheaton leaving the program. They returned Trey Sanders, Roydell Williams, and McClellan and brought in the aforementioned Gibbs. That’s not to mention highly touted freshman Emmanuel Henderson (#2 RB 247 Sports) and Jamorion Miller (#7 RB 247 Sports) arriving on campus this fall at Tuscaloosa either.

If McClellan can get on the field soon, he should rotate in behind Gibbs for Nick Saban in 2022. Overall, it looks like an uphill battle for McClellan to regain his momentum this time last year.

Average Devy ADP- 4.03 (39th overall)

Verdict- Sell

While it’s nice to see McClellan’s price has been somewhat insulated because of the Alabama name, I prefer taking shots on others in the 4.03 range. I’ve seen Spencer Rattler, Devin Neal, Blake Corum, and Zay Flowers all going around this ADP, and I prefer them to Jase McClellan at this point.

Donovan Edwards, RB Michigan

Four-star recruit Edwards is one of the more intriguing RBs in devy right now. At 6’0″ and 205 pounds, Edwards is an explosive playmaker with a three-down skill set. He came on late in 2021 and did most of his damage out of the backfield as a pass-catching weapon for the Wolverines.

Edwards and Blake Corum will make up one of the more exciting backfields in the nation in 2022. His usage on early downs as a runner will be a development to monitor. Edwards only rushed the ball 35 times in his freshman season. The departure of Hassan Haskins opens up an opportunity for both Corum and Edwards to thrive.

Average Devy ADP- 2.12 (24th overall)

Verdict- Buy

Edwards has undoubtedly seen his stock jump this offseason, and the price isn’t cheap, but he’s one of my top players I’m looking to acquire right now. I’m generally wary with offensive players in the Michigan system. Edwards is the type of talent that can calm those nerves. RBs with his pedigree, who offer high-end receiving floors, should remain top targets.

I’m buying the talent.

Quentin Johnston, WR TCU

Four-star wide receiver Johnston enters a critical year three at TCU. He has all the tools to become a star at the collegiate level. Johnston is a wiry 6’4″ and 193 pounds with high-end speed. To date, he hasn’t taken over as some have hoped, but it’s clear to see the kind of talent he possesses.

As you can see, Johnston has a knack for making big plays. He’s averaging 20 yards per reception so far during his career as a Horned Frog. He’s totaled 55 receptions for 1099 yards and eight total touchdowns in two years (16 games played). Johnston owns a 20 percent breakout age in his freshman season. He had 2.14 yards per team pass attempt and a 24.8 percent weighted dominator rating in year two as a sophomore (numbers without discounting missed games). Analytically, Johnston remains on a solid path.

Average Devy ADP- 2.07 (19th overall)

Verdict- Buy

Johnston is a talent I’m willing to bet on despite an expensive price tag. I talked about forecasting a player’s outlook, and Johnston feels like a player aligned for a massive 2022 season.

Zach Charbonnet, RB UCLA

A change of scenery was just what the doctor ordered for Charbonnet moving on from Michigan to UCLA. He rushed for a career-high 1137 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns in 2021. Charbonnet also showed his receiving skills with a career-high in receptions (24). 

However, in a surprising move, Charbonnet decided to return to Los Angeles for his senior season instead of declaring for the NFL Draft. His decision makes you wonder if NFL evaluators felt like he wasn’t ready for the next step.

Average Devy ADP- 3.03 (27th overall)

Verdict- Sell

Overall, Charbonnet has good size and displays excellent contact balance. However, he’s not the most fluid mover and lacks considerable lateral agility. He could easily get lost in the shuffle in a tremendous 2023 rookie class. At this point, I’m not sure if he’s anything more than a day three option in the draft next year. Charbonnet’s price is too steep right now for me in Devy drafts. I’ll gladly take my chances with players like Jaxson Dart and Jermaine Burton around this draft position.

*Statistics provided by Michael Nelson and his database. You can find him on Twitter at @aNellytics.

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