Connect with us

Dynasty

Dynasty Player Profile: Cooper Kupp

As we head into the offseason, Alex Matteo takes a look at the value of Cooper Kupp and what you should be doing with him in your dynasty leagues.

After seeing 191 targets that led to 145 receptions, 1947 receiving yards, and 16 touchdowns, Cooper Kupp became one of the more polarizing players of the offseason. He won the WR Triple Crown, leading the NFL in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns.

Will Kupp regress? If he does, how much will he regress? These have been the two most asked questions this offseason. Barring an injury-riddled season, regression will not impact Kupp’s production to the point where he will not finish as a Top-12 receiver in fantasy. We’ll look at different scenarios for the 2022 season and where those outputs would have finished in 2021.

Cooper Kupp with a 10% Regression      

After finishing as the WR1 OVERALL by almost 100 points, Kupp could see a 10% regression from his 2021 totals and would still have finished as the WR1 OVERALL. What Kupp did this past season was one of the biggest storylines of the season, and even with minor regression, he still would have been a true league winner.

Player Name Targets Receptions Receiving Yards Touchdowns Fantasy Points
Cooper Kupp 2021 191 145 1947 16 435.7  
Cooper Kupp 10% regression 172 131 1752 14 390.2
Davante Adams (WR2) 169 123 1553 11 344.3

Cooper Kupp with a 20% Regression

This may be more surprising, but even with a 20% regression from his 2021 totals, Kupp would have finished just short of 350 points, STILL making him the WR1 OVERALL. A 20% regression is realistically in the cards for Kupp, and he would still be worth a first or second-round pick in startup drafts this season.

Player Name Targets Receptions Receiving Yards Touchdowns Fantasy Points
Cooper Kupp 2021 191 145 1947 16 435.7  
Cooper Kupp 20% regression 153 116 1558 13 349.8
Davante Adams (WR2) 169 123 1553 11 344.3

Cooper Kupp with a 30% Regression

If I were to tell you that Kupp would give you Ja’Marr Chase production and finish as the WR6 on the season, you would be happy, right? Imagine that being considered a ‘down year’ for Kupp after his 2021 season. That’s what we will see if Kupp regresses to 134 targets. With Van Jefferson going into year three and Robert Woods returning from the ACL injury, 135-150 targets would be a realistic projection for 2022.

Player Name Targets Receptions Receiving Yards Touchdowns Fantasy Points
Cooper Kupp 2021 191 145 1947 16 435.7  
Cooper Kupp 30% regression 134 102 1363 11 304.3
Ja’Marr Chase  (WR5) 128 81 1455 13 304.6

Cooper Kupp with a 40% Regression

Since his ACL injury back in 2018, Kupp has had a relatively clean bill of health. He has played in at least 15 games all three seasons and saw no fewer than 124 targets in those three seasons. If Kupp were to miss a game or two this upcoming season, he would be in the 100-115 target range.

Player Name Targets Receptions Receiving Yards Touchdowns Fantasy Points
Cooper Kupp 2021 191 145 1947 16 435.7  
Cooper Kupp 40% regression 115 87 1168 10 263.8
Mike Evans (WR9) 114 74 1035 14 262.5

Dynasty Outlook: 2022 and Beyond

Kupp has ‘dynasty sell’ written all over him. He is coming off a historic season and is going into his age 29 season. His value will never be higher. If your team is at the very beginning of a rebuild, you should be looking to get either multiple young wide receivers, a young running back, or multiple first-round picks. 

In all other situations, Kupp is absolutely a buy. He has the two most important things situationally for a receiver. He has guaranteed volume (floor of 120 targets) and stability at the quarterback position. For the next few seasons, Kupp will see his 130-150 targets, if healthy, giving elite volume. While you cannot compare Kupp to Calvin Johnson, he can be compared to Golden Tate, who spent his prime with Stafford, giving what Kupp’s floor could look like. In his four full seasons with Detroit, Tate averaged 132 targets, 93 receptions, 1064 receiving yards, five touchdowns for 229.4 fantasy points per season. Tate’s average would be considered a down year for Kupp and still would land Kupp as a Top-18 receiver.

Here are a few trades found on Dynasty Nerds Dynasty GM involving Cooper Kupp as a BUY.

Side A: Cooper Kupp

Side B: Sony Michel and a 2022 1st

 

Side A: Cooper Kupp

Side B: Gabriel Davis and a 2022 1st

 

Side A: Cooper Kupp, Marquise Brown, and Gabriel Davis

Side B: J.K. Dobbins, Terry McLaurin, and Kareem Hunt

 

Side A: Cooper Kupp

Side B: Van Jefferson and a 2023 2nd

 

Side A: Cooper Kupp and Clyde Edwards-Helaire

Side B: Brandon Aiyuk and a 2022 1st

Kupp has everything in his favor to be an elite fantasy producer for the next few seasons. He is an elite route runner and technician at age 29, not a 29-year-old physical receiver who solely relies on athletic ability to produce. Fantasy gamers get too concerned with age at times and sacrifice scoring points, the whole purpose of fantasy football. If you are looking to win a championship in the next few seasons, Kupp is the perfect receiver to build around. The production will far exceed the cost.

Did you hear the big news? The Dynasty Nerds YouTube channel is up and running. Now you can see the podcast straight from the NerdHQ!! Smash that subscribe button. Sign up for the DynastyGM tool to keep that edge over your league mates. Manage all of your dynasty teams, use the trade calculator, and we just added a player shares tool so you can see all players you roster in one place.

JOIN OUR NEWSLETTER
I agree to have my personal information transfered to MailChimp ( more information )
Join over 25,000 subscribers and get updated on player values & trends, articles of the week, new podcast, mock drafts, a weekly free film room tape, and more...
We hate spam. Your email address will not be sold or shared with anyone else.

Get the Edge – Join the #NERDHERD

Facebook

apparel

PODCAST



More in Dynasty

Training Camp Sale!

20% OFF 
Memberships!

Coupon Code - camp20
Sign-up Now
* Terms & Conditions Apply
close-link