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2022 Fantasy Forecast: Buffalo Bills

The Buffalo Bills are preseason Super Bowl favorites! Take a deep dive into what makes their offense so special and who to invest in for long term dynasty success.

The Buffalo Bills offense is one of the most exciting to watch in the NFL. Superstar QB Josh Allen leads them as they look to get back to the Super Bowl for the first time since 1993. Buffalo finished third in points for (28.4/g) last season after finishing 2nd in 2020. The Bills finished in the top 10 in nearly every offensive category last season on their way to another deep playoff run. Unfortunately, the Kansas City Chiefs sent them home early for the second straight season. The Bills enter the 2022 season with the best odds to win the Super Bowl. Buffalo has one of the best teams they have had on paper in years.

Let’s take a look at the high-powered Buffalo offense. I’ll look at players position by position to help give you the insight you need to invest in those players as you see fit. There’s no secret acquiring players on your dynasty teams on elite offenses is always the way to go. The Bills have been one of the best offenses over the past two seasons. Many dynasty managers are looking to acquire players who might have a chance to put up good numbers in this offense. 

Quarterback 

Josh Allen, QB

The Buffalo Bills drafted Josh Allen seventh overall in the 2018 NFL draft. He was very raw and projected by just about every analyst at the time to be a bust. He’s now entering his fifth season as the only first-round quarterback from his draft class to sign an extension with the same team. Allen has 103 passing touchdowns, 31 rushing touchdowns, 8 fourth-quarter comebacks, and 11 game-winning drives. The University of Wyoming product has improved tremendously since entering the NFL. Allen has led the Bills to three straight double-digit win seasons and three consecutive postseason appearances.

The Buffalo Bills franchise quarterback has finished as the QB1 overall in each of the past two seasons. The Bills quarterback averaged 36.5 passing touchdowns and 7 rushing touchdowns per season. Josh Allen has averaged 2.21 passing touchdowns per game over his last 33 games. As a dynasty manager, there’s nothing more satisfying than having a quarterback you can start every week. It’s even better knowing the quarterback averaged over 27 fantasy points per game over the past two seasons. Allen is one of just three quarterbacks to put up 400 fantasy points or more in back-to-back seasons.

The Buffalo offense will have a new offensive coordinator this season, with former offensive coordinator Brian Daboll heading to the New York Giants. Luckily for Allen and the Bills’ offense Ken Dorsey has been promoted to offensive coordinator. Dorsey has been working as the team passing game coordinator and quarterbacks coach since 2019. Dorsey has done an outstanding job developing Allen into more of a pocket passer. Together the two have improved his accuracy and bad throw percentage over the past two seasons.

Josh Allen is the consensus dynasty QB1 amongst dynasty nerds Superflex rankers. Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and Justin Herbert are all fighting for the top spot this season. You can’t go wrong with the Buffalo signal caller’s repeat QB1 performances. It’s worth noting how much his consistent rushing numbers give you a safe floor. Look no further than his game against the Atlanta Falcons last season. He had 120 yards passing and three interceptions. However, his 81 yards rushing and two scores on the ground still allowed him to score 21 fantasy points. Simply put, there are very few quarterbacks in the NFL who can still accomplish this level of production with such a bad passing performance. 

Running Back

Devin Singletary, RB

Devin Singletary is effectively the RB1 for one of the best NFL offenses over the past two seasons. I’m not sure many dynasty managers feel that way because Josh Allen is the quarterback of that offense. Since 2018 no other quarterback has as many rushing touchdowns (31) as Josh Allen does. The former Florida Atlantic running back has yet to rush for 900 yards in a season. Although, he did set career highs in rushing yards (970) and rushing touchdowns (7). Devin Singletary was huge for dynasty managers down the stretch scoring five of his seven rushing touchdowns in the last four weeks of the season. He had five touchdowns during the fantasy playoffs, including four rushing scores and one receiving. The Buffalo running back averaged 21.31 fantasy points per game in the fantasy playoffs last season.

The Buffalo Bills rushing attack finished 6th in yards and 8th in rushing touchdowns in 2021. Devin Singletary was a big part of that down the stretch to help the Bills find a balance on offense. The good news is this will be a contract year for the former 74th overall pick in the 2019 NFL draft. Unfortunately, the Bills have brought in more competition at running back. It will be less likely for Singletary that he will see the same volume he saw in 2021 when he posted career highs. Devin Singletary is currently being drafted as a dynasty RB3 or RB4. That lines up appropriately with the current value.

James Cook, RB

The newest weapon for the Buffalo Bills offense this year is James Cook. The former Georgia running back is no stranger to competition. He is used to a stacked depth chart playing for one of the best college teams in the country. Cook has scored 16 touchdowns over his last 23 games. He came up huge for the 2021 National Champions totaling 206 total yards and a touchdown. James Cook is the younger brother of Vikings superstar RB Dalvin Cook. They have many different skill sets, but both possess some game-breaking big play potential.

James Cook brings a nice boost to the running back group as a pass catcher. I would expect him to cut into those targets quite a bit. Over the past two seasons, Singletary was targeted 100 times in the passing game. The ability of the Buffalo offense to have multiple backs who can both pass block and work effectively in the screen game will be a big boost as the team looks to keep Josh Allen improving as a pocket passer. The combination of Singletary and Cook should have dynasty managers and Bills fans excited about this group’s potential this season.

Zack Moss, RB

Zack Moss seemed to be a great fit for the Buffalo offense when he was selected 86th overall in the 2020 NFL draft. He has been a rotational running back at best over his first two seasons. The former University of Utah all-time leading rusher has appeared in 26 games. He’s scored ten total touchdowns in his early career. Moss has made his name as more of a punishing runner who is looking for contact more than looking to gain the most yards on a given play. Since being drafted, he has rushed for a first down on 25% of his carries. Also, 476 of his 826 rushing yards have come after contact. Moss also averaged 16 broken tackles in his first two seasons.

Zack Moss now sits third on the Buffalo depth chart. He may likely struggle to find a role this season. Moss was a healthy scratch at times last season, leading us to believe he has fallen out of favor with the coaching staff. There’s little value to having Zack Moss on your dynasty roster heading into 2022. He’s not a terrible option to have deep on your bench if his usage sees an uptick under Ken Dorsey or if there’s an injury in front of him.

Wide Receiver 

Stefon Diggs, WR

Stefon Diggs is one of the NFL’s most underappreciated wide receivers. Diggs has four straight 1,000-yard seasons and has scored 33 touchdowns during that span. Since joining the Bills in 2020, he has had 230 receptions and 2,760 receiving yards. The top option in the Buffalo passing game was WR7 in full-point PPR last season. He continues to earn consistent opportunities making him a reliable option in dynasty fantasy football. Diggs has had 330 targets since becoming Josh Allen’s favorite weapon; he’s made 139 receptions for first downs in that same span.

Very few will disagree with Stefon Diggs being an alpha wide receiver in the NFL. He may not possess the size and physicality we’ve grown accustomed to, but the numbers don’t lie. The former Minnesota Viking is a player that gets it done weekly. He puts fear in opposing cornerbacks when they line up across from him. The former Maryland Terrapin has bought into the Buffalo Bills culture and has found himself as a leader of a young wide receiver group. Diggs should continue to be a top option amongst dynasty wide receivers; he was 10th in fantasy points per game and looks ready for another big season as the top option in the Buffalo passing offense.

Gabriel Davis, WR

The entire fantasy football community was put on notice during the 2021 NFL playoffs. Gabriel Davis saw 13 targets and finished with 10 receptions, 242 yards, and 5 touchdowns. The young WR accounted for 24 of the 36 Bills’ total points in the Divisional Round game. His route running and big play ability was on display as he had the Kansas City secondary looking like a High School team.

Gabe Davis had eight receptions, 201 yards, and four touchdowns. Watching that performance as a dynasty manager looking ahead to the 2022 season, there was no bigger riser from the wide receiver position than Gabe Davis. He’s collected 70 receptions for 1,148 yards and 13 touchdowns in his first two seasons. Davis has averaged just 2.2 receptions per game early in his career but has shown the ability to be a difference maker when given opportunities. He’s taken 18.5% of his career receptions for touchdowns and averages 16.4 yards per reception.

The Buffalo Bills wide receiver currently comes in as the WR48 on the dynastyGM ranking tool. I believe most dynasty owners expect him to rise up those rankings once we start playing real football games again. Gabe Davis is currently being drafted anywhere from WR25 to WR30 in dynasty startup drafts. He has an excellent chance to move into the top 20 with a full season as the number two wide receiver in the Buffalo offense. I’m still not sure I can behind the potential upside with his current value but primarily because of the depth of the wide receiver position. I cannot fault those who are buying at his perceived lowest point prior to the 2022 season.

Isaiah McKenzie, WR

Isaiah McKenzie finds himself in a competition for a starting role in the Buffalo offense this season. The slot WR role is up for grabs for the first time in the past three years. Cole Beasley did not re-sign after last season. The Buffalo offense will be looking to replace his production. While Beasley was in that role with Josh Allen as his quarterback, he averaged 77 receptions, 812 receiving yards, and 3.6 touchdowns per season. I’m not sure you can expect that from the 27-year-old WR who has yet to have 40 receptions or 300 yards in any season.

Isaiah McKenzie has stepped up in the absence of Beasley, which has led to dynasty managers believing he will have some value this season. The former Georgia Bulldog has collected 19 receptions, 197 yards, and 3 touchdowns in his last three games without Cole Beasley. I’m just not sold that McKenzie ever demands the number of targets that Beasley did while in that role. The favorite to land the Bills slot role this year is worth a late-round pick, but I would not depend on him for consistent production.

Jamison Crowder, WR

Jamison Crowder is another veteran wide receiver competing for the slot WR role in the Buffalo passing attack. He’s spent the past three seasons with the division rival New York Jets. Crowder has only played in 12 games each of the past two seasons. The former Duke standout is entering his eighth NFL season, and it’s evident his best years are behind him. He can still produce, especially if, given the targets in this Buffalo offense, I just wouldn’t bank on it with the trusted options ahead of him. There are trade rumors surrounding the veteran wide receiver, but it’s likely the Bills will keep him if nothing interests them. They know how steady Crowder can be, and he will be reliable as a possession WR if an injury happens in front of him.

Khalil Shakir, WR 

The Buffalo Bills selected Boise State’s Khalil Shakir in the fifth round of the NFL draft. Shakir had a big senior season for the Broncos totaling 77 receptions, 1117 yards, 7 touchdowns, and 14.5 yards per catch. The Bills’ newest weapon has shown flashes in camp and the preseason. Buffalo will likely take their time with the rookie wide receiver, but if an opportunity presents itself, he is the type of player to show no fear and step up. If the Bills choose to get younger at wide receiver, it may not be long before we see Khalil Shakir start to see some valuable playing time.

Tight End

Dawson Knox, TE

Dawson Knox was a huge standout for the Buffalo offense in 2021. Knox posted career highs in targets (71), receptions (49), yards (587), touchdowns (9), and receptions per game (3.3). The Buffalo tight end was the TE10 in tight end Premium scoring last season and the TE9 in points per game (14.02). The former Ole Miss product has created a nice connection with quarterback Josh Allen and the two look to build on that going forward. The Buffalo tight end has 14 career touchdown catches after having zero in college; the Bills took a gamble on him being an athlete instead of a proven prospect and are reaping the rewards of that decision.

Dawson Knox comes in as the TE12 among consensus rankers but has an ADP around TE8 to TE10. This is more than the fair value for him, as he was touchdown-dependent a season ago. The Bills tight end was one of four tight ends to score 54 fantasy points in just touchdowns last season. He tied for the league lead with 9 in a very impressive group, including Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, and Hunter Henry. Knox is not quite on the level of some of those guys, but his improvements over the past few seasons have been impressive.

Ken Dorsey takes over as the team’s offensive coordinator; he is no stranger to featuring a tight end in the offense, whether it was his time with the University of Miami or his development of Greg Olsen during Cam Newton’s prime. Dawson Knox could be one of Buffalo’s biggest beneficiaries of this season’s coaching change.

Conclusion

The Buffalo Bills offense is loading up for another deep playoff run in 2022. The Bills have set the new standard as the team to beat in the AFC. It will be interesting to see how they hold up against a tougher schedule. As a dynasty manager building your team around some of these young Buffalo players is a very good strategy.

I look forward to watching this Bills offense this season and monitoring how the dynasty values of their young players unfold. Good luck this season, and keep building those championship dynasty rosters.

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