Jahan Dotson is the forgotten wide receiver from the 2022 NFL draft, as the excitement about him is low in dynasty. It was a surprise to see Dotson selected in the first round by the Commanders. After an underrated rookie season, Dotson is looking to break out and improve his overall dynasty value.
Recent Fantasy History
Dotson had a hot start in his rookie season. He was the third-best rookie receiver in fantasy points, just behind Chris Olave and Garrett Wison. He scored four touchdowns early, which helped him produce 11 plus fantasy points in three of his first four games. Dotson seemed to click early on with Carson Wentz and hoped this Commander’s passing attack would come alive. Unfortunately, Dotson suffered a hamstring injury that would cost him five weeks, but it took almost eight weeks to get back as a full-time starter in the offense.
As I mentioned, Dotson struggled to get back to starter minutes, likely due to the hamstring, as they do take time and can be hurt again easily. Over the final five games, Dotson would return to early season form and continue to have a nose for the endzone. Dotson scores three more times to help produce 12 plus fantasy points in three of the final five games. When playing 70% of the snaps, Dotson would score a touchdown in five of eight games. He also did most of that work with another quarterback Taylor Heinicke, to show he could work with different types of quarterbacks.
Here are some more interesting stats from Dotson’s rookie season; he was 14th in touchdowns and ADOT, in which he had a 13.5 ADOT. He was sixth in fantasy per target of 2.14. He showed off his blazing speed and twitchy play style, making him an exciting prospect. If you took his 17-game average, he would have had 50 receptions for 741 receiving yards and ten touchdowns. Those stats scream a year-two breakdown with some touchdown regression.
What’s New for 2023
Sam Howell and Eric Bieniemy can help give more excitement to Dotson’s value in 2023. So starting with Sam Howell, in one game they both played together, Dotson had three receptions for 72 yards. Howell is an upgrade over Taylor Heinicke and the shell of Carson Wentz. Howell has an underrated arm and excellent accuracy that will work well for the passing attack and Dotson. If even the team decided to go with the Jacoby Brissett route, we saw Brissett be able to help keep Amari Cooper going and give some life to Dovonan Peoples-Jones too.
The most impactful change for 2023 is the offensive coordinator in Eric Bieniemy. While folks have a different opinion on Bieniemy, he was critical to the Kansas City Chiefs’ early dynasty run with Patrick Mahomes. He had a top-six offense all five seasons as the Chiefs offensive coordinator. The passing game has been the most impressive part of the offense, with five seasons of top-five yardage and the top six in touchdowns. Granted, it does help to have All-Pro Patrick Mahomes as your quarterback.
Bieniemy is likely going to use plenty of RPO plays in 2023. Howell’s ability to run the ball and hit the quick pass will be great. This will help Dotson reach new levels using his speed to hit the underneath routes and do things with the ball in his hands afterward. We’ve also seen Bieniemy take gadget-type players and use them to be the most effective. It will be interesting to see how well they use Dotson, who is more than a gadget player but can be used all over the field to go deep, underneath, or in the run game. Bieniemy will likely use 11 personnel to put Dotosn on the field plenty to make plays.
Dynasty Trade Values
- Devon Achane & 2025 3rd for Jahan Dotson
- Tank Bigsby & Jonathan Mingo for Jahan Dotson
- Jeff Wilson & Jamaal Williams for Jahan Dotson
- Jamison Williams for Jahan Dotson
Here are some recent dynasty trades surrounding Dotson in the DynastyGM trade browser. If we look at the first trade, I like the value you must give up to get Dotson with Achane and a 2025 3rd rounder. Achane is getting hyped up right now, and you could move him to get a young upside receiver in Dotson, who could last much longer in the NFL. In the Bigbsy and Mingo trade, I’m more willing to lean in that direction because of the opportunity both players have over Dotson.
Give me the young receiver in Dotson over two 27-year-old running backs in the third trade. Their values are just going to continue to drop as they age. The last trade is interesting as there is a case to pick Dotson over Jameson Williams. Williams has one catch over 24 potential games he could have played had it not been for injuries and the suspension. As a team looking to make a push, siding with Dotson isn’t crazy. Dotson has produced for us in fantasy so that he can produce consistently. I likely still lean toward Williams for his upside, but Dotson could be the better option.
Jahan Dotson should be a receiver you want to buy low on. The dynasty world is all over Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson, and Drake London from the 2022 receiver class, leaving Dotson as an underrated value. The offensive change with Eric Bieniemy will bring some lighting, and the receivers like Dotson will benefit from it. The Commanders choose not to bring in any real talent on offense which shows trust for the pass catchers. If you want to acquire Dotson, an aging running back or wide receiver and a lower pick could quickly get the job done. Dotson is going to have a breakout 2023 season.
Make sure you subscribe to the #NerdHerd, where you get exclusive content, dynasty/rookie/devy rankings, a buy/sell tool, and a bonus podcast too. Dynasty Nerds also recently launched the #DynastyGM tool, a complete game-changer in the fantasy industry. Click here for a free trial. We truly are your one-stop shop for all your fantasy football needs!