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Let’s Talk About Flex – Week 16

I get the sneaky feeling I am going to be stuck on a 65% hit rate this year, but that won’t stop me from dreaming of a 70+% finish in these last 2 weeks!

Happy Christmas, my fellow dynasty degenerates! I hope your week is full of Christmas music, eggnog, family, friends, and fantasy football!!! Aside from the best holiday of the year, we are excited about the fantasy football semi-finals! Fantasy quarterbacks are dropping like flies, and there were the usual unexpected duds and studs from Week 1 of the playoffs. While we are at it, let’s hit a quick Week 15 recap!

Hits

JK Dobbins, RB BAL

Dobbins is in the “Hits” column thanks to premium efficiency, certainly not from premium volume! The Ravens had a bad day in general against the Browns, and Dobbins was only on the field for 38% of the snaps. He did lead the backfield with 13 rush attempts and turned that into 125 yards but sadly, no touchdowns. RB19 isn’t too shabby for a flex play in Week 1 of the fantasy playoffs, so we will take it!

Cam Akers, RB LAR

Akers followed a similar Week 15 trajectory to Dobbins. He led his respective backfield (12 rush attempts) and was fairly efficient at 5.4 yards per carry. Thankfully, he added in three receptions for 35 yards to give him a respectable 13 points in a PPR league. That was good enough for RB21 on the week. Not spectacular, but every little bit helps. Akers was on the field 76% of the snaps and far outpaced his backfield running mates in attempts. Both are very encouraging signs for dynasty managers.

Drake London, WR ATL

It wasn’t pretty, but it was semi-productive for Mr. London. The great news is he managed to command a 42% target share in his first game with fellow rookie Desmond Ridder. The bad news is that only resulted in seven receptions for 70 yards. Again, he didn’t sink your week, but he wasn’t the key reason you won. Better days are ahead for this young stud, but it may not be what you had hoped for these last two weeks of the fantasy season.

Joshua Palmer, WR LAC

This one is ever so slightly cheeky as, technically, he scored 9.9 points in a PPR setting. I count anything over 10 points as a “hit,” considering the stringent guidelines I am adhering to with the selection process. In the generous spirit of Christmas, I am rounding UP to ten points and calling it a hit! 

In an uncharacteristic performance from Herbert, there were no passing touchdowns to be had last week. Palmer was very efficient on his opportunities and finished with five receptions on five targets for 49 yards.

Misses

D’Onta Foreman, RB CAR

There is no way to sugar-coat this one; Foreman was an all-out disastrous play last week. He had ten rush attempts for nine yards, and it’s pretty hard to recover from that and have a decent week for fantasy. Foreman did not receive a single target in the game and sadly finished as the RB72 in PPR leagues last week. I started him in a couple of places myself, in desperation. So I both feel your pain and grieve your loss. It feels like “Foreman SZN” is kind of over, sad times.

Kendrick Bourne, WR NEP

I wish Foreman was the worst miss of the week; sadly, that is not the case. I am legitimately dumbfounded and appalled by this one. Parker did miss out last week though Jakobi Meyers did end up playing. The Patriots were in a game script that required some passing, as they lost to the Raiders.

With all that being said, Bourne only ended up playing 17% of the snaps and receiving a single target…which he did not catch. This has to go down as my worst call of the season, and of course, it happens in the first week of the fantasy playoffs! I genuinely and profusely apologize if you played him based on last week’s article.

Even with the Bourne Debacle, the yearly tally is at 43-23 or, in layman’s terms, 65%. I get the sneaky feeling I will be stuck on 65% this year, but that won’t stop me from dreaming of a 70+% finish in these last two weeks!

As a reminder, I am choosing wide receivers outside of the top 36 and running backs outside the top 24 based on the FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rank for the week. The setting is full PPR (since I am not a complete savage) and without further adieu, let’s hit Week 16!

Week 16

Leonard Fournette TBB RB26 FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rank ⬆️

What a crazy world we live in where I can write about Lombardi Lenny being a “potential” flex play. I am writing about that, however, and I stand by it. Lenny out-snapped Rachaad White 58-39% in Week 15’s loss to the Cincinnati Bengals. He was more efficient in the run game and received four targets to White’s.

This week the Bucs are taking on the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals are currently down to their third-string quarterback, and it is questionable just how many points they will be able to put up against Tampa Bay. Arizona has been a top-10 matchup for fantasy running backs in the last six weeks, and it’s only a 40-point over/under, so Vegas expects the Bucs to run all over the Cardinals in Week 16.

Jamaal Williams DET RB30 FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rank ⬇️

It feels like only yesterday when it was JAMAAL WILLIAMS SZN, and he was scoring touchdowns for fun, seemingly. Sadly, Williams has not reached double-digit fantasy points in four weeks in a normal PPR league, despite scoring touchdowns in two of those weeks.

This week the Lions take on the Panthers in the battle of the big cats. Carolina has surprisingly been a very difficult matchup for fantasy running backs lately. Over the last six weeks, Carolina has allowed the second-fewest points to the fantasy running back. D’Andre Swift is in the mix and vulturing some opportunities and targets, so Williams is a VERY touchdown-dependent flex option. I would try my best to look elsewhere in the fantasy semi-finals.

Marquise Goodwin SEA WR38 FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rank ⬆️

Goodwin has had a few decent fantasy outings this season with the emergence of Geno Smith. Now that Tyler Lockett is going to miss week 16 against the high-flying Kansas City Chiefs, Goodwin is, in essence, the WR2 in a surprisingly decent offense.

Kansas City has given up the seventh most fantasy points to the wide receiver position in the last six weeks, and the Seahawks will most definitely have to pass the ball if they want to keep up with Patrick Mahomes. A 49-point over/under is nothing to sniff at as well when you are looking at this weekend’s matchups.

KJ Osborn MIN WR47 FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rank ⬆️

As a Minnesota Vikings fan, I will be the first to admit that KJ’s season has been far more bust than boom. He is certainly heating up here at the end of the season. In Week 14 against Detroit, he was a perfect five for five with a touchdown. He then followed that up with a career day in Week 15, being targeted 16 times against the Indianapolis Colts.

One thing I will say about the Vikings this year is you have no idea what to expect from game to game. The Giants certainly don’t have a fear-inspiring secondary, and the Vikings’ secondary has been abysmal this year so points could be available on both sides. If you need a boom-bust “swing for the fences” option, KJ may be your man.

Raheem Mostert MIA RB24 FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rank ⬆️

It has certainly been an up-and-down season for Mostert. He started hot, then was seemingly ousted from the starting role by former San Fran teammate Jeff Wilson Jr. Now that Wilson has got banged up, Mostert has once again taken over the lion’s share of the backfield opportunities for Miami.

There is a chance that Wilson will miss this week as well as he continues to heal up from his injury. If he does, then Mostert is a very nice start against a fairly generous Green Bay run defense. The Packers are giving up the 11th most fantasy points to the running back position over the last six weeks. The matchup is in Miami, so we shouldn’t worry about the weather.

Jakobi Meyers NE WR36 FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rank ⬇️

Meyers has been the best of a bad bunch in New England this season. He has been the closest thing to a “reliable” wide receiver for fantasy purposes for the Patriots. He hasn’t posted a double-digit performance (even in a PPR league) since Week 8 against the Jets. Yikes!

Meyers has been playing through pain lately with a shoulder injury and is not 100% sure to play this week. Even if he does play, Cincinnati has been a stout matchup against fantasy wide receivers, only allowing the 22nd most fantasy points over the last six weeks. I am not excited about a less-than-healthy Meyers going up against a tough Cinci pass defense. Best to look elsewhere if possible!

Conclusion

Never give up, even if you are a huge underdog, according to the projections! I managed to survive Kamara’s 6-touchdown Christmas explosion and win a championship a couple of seasons ago! Tis’ the season for Christmas miracles and eternal hope. I hope you all make the perfect start-sit decisions and get that Christmas W you have been asking Santa for!

If you want to chat about anything fantasy football related, you can catch me on Twitter @FFEvanlution. You can also listen to my podcast Dynasty Debates (@DynastyDebates) available on all major podcast listening platforms.

Best of luck!

Make sure you subscribe to the #NerdHerd, where you get exclusive content, dynasty/rookie/devy rankings, buy/sell tool, and a bonus podcast too. Dynasty Nerds also recently launched the #DynastyGM tool, a complete game-changer in the fantasy industry. Click here for a free trial. We truly are your one-stop shop for all your fantasy football needs!

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